2021 German federal election
Federal elections were held in Germany on 26 September 2021 to elect the members of the 20th Bundestag. State elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern were also held. Incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel, first elected in 2005, chose not to run again, marking the first time that an incumbent Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany did not seek re-election.
All 735 seats in the Bundestag, including 137 overhang and leveling seats
368 seats needed for a majority
61,172,771 
0.8%
46,298,338 (76.4%) 
0.2pp
With 25.7% of total votes, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) recorded their best result since 2005, and emerged as the largest party for the first time since 2002. The ruling CDU/CSU, which had led a grand coalition with the SPD since 2013, recorded their worst ever result with 24.1%, a significant decline from 32.9% in 2017. Alliance 90/The Greens achieved their best result in history at 14.7%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) made small gains and finished on 11.4%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) fell from third to fifth place with 10.4%, a decline of 2.3 percentage points. The Left suffered their worst showing since their official formation in 2007, failing to cross the 5% electoral threshold by just over one-tenth of a percentage point. The party was nonetheless entitled to full proportional representation, as it won three direct constituencies.
With a fifth grand coalition being dismissed by both the CDU/CSU and the SPD, the FDP and the Greens were considered kingmakers. On 23 November, following complex coalition talks, the SPD, FDP and Greens formalized an agreement to form a traffic light coalition, which was approved by all three parties. Olaf Scholz and his cabinet were elected by the Bundestag on 8 December.
Irregularities in Berlin leading to repeat elections in February 2023 (state) and February 2024 (federal). The result of the federal repeat election meant that the FDP lost a seat in the Bundestag, while 3 other seats were moved from Berlin to different states.
Campaign[edit]
Major issues[edit]
The federal election was impacted by incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel's decision not to run again,[59] and candidates to present themselves as the natural successor to Merkel.[60]
The 2021 European floods put the climate issue back on the agenda in July. The SPD called for "everything to be done to stop global warming," while the CDU/CSU wanted to "speed up climate protection measures".[61] By the end of July, 56 per cent of Germans believed that the floods made it "even more important than before" to combat climate change, and 73 per cent believed the government was not doing enough in this area; only the AfD's supporters were overwhelmingly of the opposite opinion.[62] Following those events, six people under the age of 30 began a hunger strike in front of the Reichstag building at the end of August. They demanded a sincere dialogue with the leaders of the main political parties before the elections and the establishment of a citizens' convention to decide on ambitious measures for the climate.[63]
During the deadly German floods, while visiting Erftstadt on 18 July, the CDU/CSU lead candidate Armin Laschet was caught laughing on camera and making jokes while President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was speaking. Laschet was heavily criticized, despite his apology saying: "It was stupid and shouldn't have happened and I regret it." Both the CDU/CSU and Laschet's ratings suffered heavily in opinion polls and the SPD took the lead.[64][65]
Red–red–green coalition[edit]
During the campaign, Scholz rejected tax cuts for the rich as immoral,[66] pledged to "increase taxes on the wealthy, spend on cleaner technology and expand social programs",[67] and a minimum wage increase to 12 euros.[68] In general, there was broad agreement among left-leaning parties on issues such as climate change, education, finance, health, and higher taxes for the rich, and The Left being more pro-European than similar left-wing parties like La France Insoumise,[69] while issues of disagreement were foreign policy and security.[70] Writing for The Guardian, Philip Oltermann commented: "Paradoxically, some Social Democrats see such commonalities as an obstacle rather than a boon for an effective power-sharing deal: since all three parties already call for a wealth tax, for example, it's unclear what policy Die Linke could sell its supporters as a win even if were to get its hands on the coveted labour ministry."[69] Both the SPD and the Greens did not speak much on the subject but did not rule it out in public, although in private they were more sceptics. One SPD delegate was quoted as saying: "To prepare the ground for a robust and functioning coalition, you need to make sure that no one walks out of talks looking like a loser. That's difficult enough with two, but it becomes even more difficult when you have three partners."[69] Oltermann posited that The Left could see entering federal government as "a final chance to reverse the party's decline, even if it means moving some of its red lines of old."[69]
In its election manifesto, The Left called for abolishing NATO in favour of a "collective security system with Russia's involvement", to which Scholz said that this is an example of minimum criteria to govern which is not negotiable.[71] The Left's lead candidates stated that those demands are a tribute to the party's historic anti-imperialist roots rather than reflecting ambitions to govern at the federal level and a discussion on the future of NATO is also being led by centrists such as France's Emmanuel Macron.[69] The party struck the anti-NATO demand from its immediate policy measures and Janine Wissler responded that foreign policy was more than NATO.[72] Gregor Gysi, a member of the left wing of the party, stated that such demands are more of a vision, are not to be implemented as soon as possible, and should not be seen as inflexible preconditions for a left-wing coalition.[73]
As significant issues remain, attempts among willing delegates from both parties have been made over the years on how such issues could be solved in a coalition; the solution of an internal vote preceding foreign policies votes, such as foreign deployments, on a case-by-case analysis was deemed to be unworkable by many in the SPD. The Greens see foreign policy differences with The Left as big as financial and debt disagreements with the FDP.[69] The Left joining the federal government would have broken a taboo due to being a democratic successor of East Germany's ruling party, and for its pacifist and anti-militarist stance,[69] and could be seen as following examples in Spain and Sweden.[74] A traffic light coalition (SPD–FDP–Greens) was seen as the more likely scenario but a R2G coalition, which would be favoured by the left-wing leadership[73] and rank-and-file party members,[72] was not excluded if coalition talks with FDP fail due minimum wage increase or the wealth tax.[69]
