2023 Dutch general election
Early general elections were held in the Netherlands on 22 November 2023 to elect the members of the House of Representatives.[1][2] The elections had been expected to be held in 2025 but a snap election was called after the fourth Rutte cabinet collapsed on 7 July 2023 due to immigration policy disagreements between the coalition parties.[3] The incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced that he would not lead his party into the election and that he would retire from politics.[4]
Turnout
77.75% (
0.96pp)
In what was described as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[5] the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, won 37 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, becoming the largest party for the first time.[5][6][7] All four parties of the incumbent coalition government suffered losses.[8]
After the election, a cabinet formation began to determine which parties would form the next government. Subsequently on 16 May 2024, a coalition agreement was settled upon by PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB.[9] Furthermore, immigration policy has been heavily prioritised on the incoming government's agenda,[10] as coalition representatives stated they would embrace the "strictest" asylum policy.[11] Numerous reforms are also expected across areas such as welfare and health, as emphasised upon by NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt during the election campaign, similar to addressing issues having surfaced in the aftermath of the Dutch childcare benefits scandal.[12] Several observers have described the new government as the most right-wing in recent history.[13]
Aftermath[edit]
Political analysis[edit]
International media described the results as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[90] and as a landslide victory for the Party for Freedom (PVV).[91][92][93] Many analysts speculated that the rise of the PVV was due to great debate performances by Wilders in the weeks leading to the election. When migration became the largest issue of the election, it helped to boost the appeal of Wilders.[94] Some politics journalists opined that Wilders was able to build wider support by softening some of his statements after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz suggested she might include the PVV in negotiations and declaring in a debate that he would be "a Prime Minister for all Dutch people."[95] Others commented ahead of the election that newer anti-establishment and alternative parties to the PVV such as the Forum for Democracy, JA21, BBB and Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract ran out of steam when voters, having experimented with them, moved back to the PVV because Wilders had remained a stronger and more consistent political figure.[96]
In addition, the leader of the GroenLinks–PvdA coalition, Frans Timmermans, was disliked by many right wingers, and since the VVD and NSC did not directly rule out working with either PVV or GL-PvdA, this led to right-wing voters consolidating around Wilders in order to prevent a Timmermans premiership.[97] The Farmer–Citizen Movement saw a decline from their peak in the provincial elections in March, with many of their voters going towards NSC or PVV, for issues around nitrogen emissions were only a minor topic in the campaign.[98]
The results of the elections are expected to lead to protracted and complicated coalition talks. Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte will remain in a caretaker capacity, and the incumbent coalition government will continue as a demissionary cabinet until the next coalition government is sworn in, which can take up to several months.
Reactions[edit]
Following his party's performance, Wilders was praised by Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. He was also praised by far-right leaders across Europe such as Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, André Ventura, Alice Weidel, Tom Van Grieken, and Santiago Abascal.[99][100]
All parties of the incumbent coalition government lost seats in this election.[8] Incumbent coalition party Democrats 66 leader Rob Jetten blamed the senior coalition party VVD and its leader Dilan Yeşilgöz for the successes of Wilders and the PVV in the election, saying on election night that "Yeşilgöz left the door wide open for Wilders" and blaming her party's campaign strategy for allowing "the politics of intolerance [to be] normalized while it should never be normal". Yeşilgöz denied her party's strategy was to blame for the PVV's success, saying, "It was not the VVD that made the PVV great. The voters did that."[101]
