2024 Iranian strikes against Israel
On 13 April 2024, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces, in collaboration with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq,[3] Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and the Ansar Allah (Houthis), launched retaliatory attacks against Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights[note 2] with loitering munitions, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.[13] The attack was codenamed by Iran as Operation True Promise (Persian: وعده صادق, romanized: va'de-ye sādeq).[14][15] Iran said it was retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on 1 April,[16] which killed two Iranian generals.[17] The strike was seen as a spillover of the Israel–Hamas war and marked Iran's first direct attack on Israel since the start of their proxy conflict.[18]
"Operation True Promise" redirects here. For the cross-border raid named Operation Truthful Promise, see 2006 Hezbollah cross-border raid.Operation True Promise
Damaging or destroying Israeli military facilities used in the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, in reprisal for that attack
13–14 April 2024[2]
Per Israel:
- Nevatim and Ramon Airbases slightly damaged[5]
Per Iran:
- Ramon Airbase struck by seven missiles and Nevatim Airbase struck by missiles.[6]
Per US
- At least nine Iranian missiles struck Nevatim and Ramon Airbases, causing minor damage.[5]
Incoming Iranian missiles and suicide drones
- Israel
- United States
- United Kingdom
- Jordan
- France
- Intelligence support:
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
Weapons intercepted:
- 99% per Israel[12]
Several countries in the Middle East[note 3] closed their airspace a few hours before Iran launched a standoff attack against Israel around midnight on 13 April. Iran's attack sent around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.[note 2] The Israel Defense Forces used Arrow 3 and David's Sling systems to shoot down many of the incoming weapons.[19][20] American, British, French, and Jordanian air forces also shot some down.[21][22][23] France, which intervened at Jordan's request,[24] deployed warships to provide radar coverage. Jordan said it had intercepted objects flying into its airspace to protect its citizens.[25]
Israel said that the coalition, whose defensive efforts were codenamed Iron Shield,[26] destroyed 99 percent of the incoming weapons,[27][28][29] most before they reached Israeli airspace.[30] A U.S. official said that at least nine Iranian missiles had struck two Israeli airbases, causing minor damage.[5] Some of the ballistic missiles were shot down in space by the Arrow system.[31] The missiles caused minor damage to the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, which remained operational.[32][33][34] In Israel, a 7-year-old Israeli Bedouin girl was struck and injured by part of a missile, and 31 other people either suffered minor injuries while rushing to shelters or were treated for anxiety. Jordan reported some shrapnel falling on its territory, causing little damage or injuries.[32][33] The next day, Iran's envoy to the United Nations stated that the attacks "can be deemed concluded".[35]
The attack was the largest attempted drone strike in history,[36][37] intended to overwhelm anti-aircraft defenses. It was the first time since Iraq's 1991 missile strikes that Israel was directly attacked by the military of another state.[38] Iran's attacks drew criticism from the United Nations, several world leaders, and political analysts, who warned that they risk escalating into a full-blown regional war.[39][40][41][42] Israel retaliated by executing limited strikes on Iran on 18 April 2024.[43]
Attack
Launching of missiles and drones
On the evening of 13 April 2024, Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel, targeting—among other unconfirmed trajectories—sites in the Golan Heights and Arad region and two airbases in the Negev desert.[13][63][64][65] The attack was named Operation True Promise[66] (Persian: وعده صادق, romanized: va'de-ye sādeq),[67] with the code name Ya Rasul Allah (یارسولالله(ص)).[68] It comprised more than 200 missiles and drones according to The Washington Post[63][64][69][70] and included ballistic missiles according to Iranian news agency IRNA.[71] Both CNN and Reuters later reported that more than 300 standoff weapons had been launched toward Israel.[72][73] An Israeli military spokesman specified that Iran had launched 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles.[28] According to IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari, approximately 350 rockets were launched at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, also noting that the attack consisted of 60 tons of explosive materials.[74][75]
According to the Iranian Chief of General Staff Mohammad Bagheri, the primary targets included the Nevatim Airbase from which Israel launched the attack on the Iranian consulate, as well as the intelligence center in the Israeli-occupied part of Mount Hermon that supplied the intelligence. The operation was limited to a retaliatory attack for the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate.[76][77] Other targets included the Ramon Airbase in the south of Israel,[78] Tel Aviv, and Dimona, which is home to the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center.[79] According to IRGC's Tasnim News Agency, the tactic used consisted of saturating the Iron Dome and David's Sling with a first wave of hundreds of HESA Shahed 136 loitering munitions to clear the way for dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles in the second wave.[80] A total of 185 of the newer and faster-flying, jet-propelled Shahed 238 loitering munitions were also used.[81]
Hezbollah said it launched dozens of BM-21 Grad rockets at an Israeli air defense site in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The group said the attack took place shortly after midnight local time.[82] Houthis launched drones.[83]
To prepare for the attack, Israel, alongside Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Kuwait, closed their airspace on 13 April; Iran only closed its airspace to VFR flights,[84][85][86] and Egypt and Syria put its air defense on high alert.[87][4]
According to Or Fialkov, an Israeli military researcher, some of the missile types used by Iran were the Emad with a warhead of 750 kg, Ghadr-110 with a warhead of between 650 kg and 1000 kg, Kheibar Shekan with a 500 kg warhead, and probably Shahab-3B with a warhead of 700 kg.[88]
Analysis
The Economist wrote that "the strike was militarily a flop", adding that Iran "may have miscalculated".[34] The Jerusalem Post noted that the Iranian attack demonstrated that the events of 7 October did not undermine the Israel–Sunni alliance.[147] According to H. A. Hellyer, a Middle East expert, the aim of the attack was not to harm Israel "with that level of warning".[148]
According to CNN, the attack by Iran was "planned to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle", and noted that Iranian drones and missiles went past Jordan and Iraq, both with U.S. military bases, and all the air defenses before penetrating the airspace of Israel.[149] The Intercept reported that, according to American military sources, half of the Iranian weapons failed at launch or during flight.[92]
Dov Zakheim, a former Undersecretary of Defense in the George W. Bush administration, stated that "Iran is an existential threat in a way the Palestinian issue is not", thus bringing to the fore American deterrence vis-à-vis Iran.[150] John Bolton, however, called the attacks "a massive failure of Israeli and American deterrence"[151] and described Biden's disapproval of a possible counterattack as an embarrassment.[152] Al Jazeera opined that Iran, in no longer relying solely on its proxies, by launching its first attack on Israel from its own soil, its largest missile attack ever, and the largest drone strike in military history, has increased both its deterrence and its soft power in the wider Muslim world.[37] The Guardian stated that some analysts believed that Iran's attack had shattered Israeli deterrence policy.[153]
The Wall Street Journal attributed Israel's success to a combination of its "sophisticated air-defense system and critical assistance provided by the U.S. and other Western and Arab partners,"[154] whilst The Times diplomatic editor Roger Boyes suggested that the attack "showed that Israel has only a limited self-sufficiency in security matters. It was dependent on U.S. intelligence for the timing of the assault, for the location of many of the firing positions and on U.S., British and French assistance to help shoot down the incoming munitions".[155] According to The Times of Israel, Israel's capability of taking direct and comprehensive strategic action solely on its own initiative was henceforth constrained, and furthermore the calculus of deterrence throughout the region has been changed.[156] The more liberal Haaretz regarded America's assistance as its "most significant show of support in the history of Israeli-U.S. relations".[157]
An operational analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that the attack was likely intended to cause significant damage below the threshold that would trigger a massive Israeli response. The think tank also noted that the "attack package" followed the Russian doctrine used in air strikes against Ukraine during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, albeit on a much larger scale and in a single mission. ISW predicted that the lessons that Iran will learn from this attack will allow it to identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of Israel's air defense system and build more successful attack packages in the future, and possibly share these experiences with Russia as well.[158]
According to Reuters, analysts estimate that the cost for Israel and its allies to defend the attack was about $1 billion, while the cost to Iran for the attack was about $80 million to $100 million.[89] The current cost of Israel's short-range Iron Dome, medium-range David's Sling, and high-altitude Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems to intercept airborne threats is in the range of tens of thousands to millions of dollars, but future laser-based systems may substantially decrease the cost of each interception.[159]