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Idlib demilitarization (2018–2019)

The Idlib demilitarization was an agreement between Turkey and Russia to create a demilitarized zone (DMZ) in Syria's rebel-held Idlib Governorate, to be patrolled by military forces from Russia and Turkey. On 17 September 2018, the Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, reached an agreement to create a buffer zone in Idlib.[17]

Background[edit]

In the start of 2018, after ISIL defeat in eastern Syria, the Syrian government and its allies intensified their assault on rebels in the southwest. After the Beit Jinn offensive in January, the Eastern Qalamoun offensive (April 2018), rebel fighters who refused to "reconcile" with the government were evacuated to Idlib – reportedly about 1,500 from Qalamoun[18] and 300 from Beit Jinn to Idlib and Daraa in December[19] and more in March.[20] At the same time, rebel and HTS fighters surrendered in the long Rif Dimashq Governorate campaign, and the rebels, numbering about 20,000, were transported to Idlib, Afrin and Al-Bab area.[21][22][23] In late July 2018, Syrian government forces and their allies captured the Southern Front, during the 2018 Southern Syria offensive. Rebel fighters who refused to reconcile were again transported to Idlib.[24][25]


After that, the Syrian government started gathering troops outside of Idlib, and began shelling rebel-held territories at the start of August. Rebels started building defenses and trenches for an upcoming offensive.[26][27][28][29]

The bombardments[edit]

On 4 September 2018, at least ten Russian Sukhoi aircraft launched dozens of air strikes over the southern and western part of the Idlib Governorate, which led to the largest bombing campaign in the province. Russian air strikes specifically targeted the Jisr al-Shughur District, including Al-Shughour, Mahambel, Basnkoul, Zaizooun, Ziyarah, Jadariiah, Kafrdeen, Al-Sahn, Saraseef and a dozen others. The Russian air force on the first day recorded more than 50-70 attacks. According to pro-government sources, at least 11 civilians were killed, and 24 wounded during the strikes.[30][31][32] The following day, one of the top Syrian Arab Army (SAA) commanders arrived in northern Syria in the upcoming offensive in Idlib, Hama and Latakia: according to the official media wing of the Tigers, their commander, Major-General Suheil al-Hassan, went to Aleppo area to visit the areas retaken by the government.[33] The Syrian and Russian air forces resumed their airstrikes over the southwestern countryside of the Idlib Governorate today. Using their Sukhoi jets, the Syrian and Russian air forces heavily bombarded the Jisr Al-Shughour District for the second straight day.[34] As the bombardments continued, and the fears for an upcoming offensive appeared to become a reality, the United Nations issued a warning that the offensive will result in a bloodbath and a massacre, as about 100,000 rebels and 3,000,000 civilians were holed up in the area. Turkey started sending more troops and boosting defenses in the frontlines, and warned the government and Russia of a humanitarian disaster if their forces started the offensive, saying it would create a new wave of refugees. On 13 September, it was announced Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Iran, to discuss ways forward.[35][36][37]

A demilitarized zone (DMZ) would be set up entirely within rebel-held territory. It would be 15 to 25 km deep (9–15 miles) and come into effect by 15 October. All acts of aggression would be prohibited within the zone.

The would refrain from attacks on the rebel-held Idlib Governorate.

Syrian Government

Groups deemed "radical", such as the -linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), would have to leave the demilitarized zone entirely.

Al-Qaeda

Groups deemed "moderate", such as the Turkish-backed , would be allowed to remain within the demilitarized zone, but would have to withdraw all heavy and medium weapons from it, including all tanks, MLRS, artillery and mortars.

National Front for Liberation

The HTS-run would be dissolved.

Syrian Salvation Government

The rebel groups would open and ensure unrestricted civilian access through the .

M4 and M5 highways

would use its network of observation posts in Idlib to secure the rebel-held DMZ, while Russia and Iran would likewise set up and use their own military observation posts to secure the government-controlled territories, which border the zone.

Turkey

Turkey and Russia would coordinate joint patrols along the DMZ, in order to ensure compliance.

Russia and Turkey would reiterate their "determination to combat terrorism in Syria in all forms and manifestations".

The demilitarization deal was struck on 16 September and was announced as binding on both parties. The terms were as follows:[38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46]


The pro-government Al-Watan newspaper further reported that the agreement would reportedly end in the return of government institutions to Idlib, after rebel groups withdraw from residential areas.[47]


The Turkistan Islamic Party, Guardians of Religion Organization, Ansar al-Tawhid, Ansar al-Din Front, and Ansar al-Islam rejected the deal, putting the agreement in jeopardy,[48][5] while Tahrir al-Sham issued an ambiguous statement on the deal.[49]


The Syrian Government accepted and "welcomed" the deal.[47]

(HTS): one of the most powerful militant groups in Syria. It controls up to two-thirds of Idlib Governorate,[85][86] including Idlib City and the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey.[84] It was previously affiliated with Al-Qaeda, and is often said (including by the US State Department[87]) to remain an al-Qaeda affiliate, despite the group's statement that since 2016 it does not belong to any "external entity". The group's leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, stated after the rebel defeats in the south that the same thing will not happen in Idlib, implying that his coalition will fight if the regime raided Idlib. The UN estimates it and its allies to have 10,000 fighters, with a high number of foreigners.[84] Other estimates put it at 8,000,[88] about 10,000,[86] to 12–14,000 fighters[89][90] or even 30,000.[85]

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham

: an ethnic Uyghur jihadist group that came to Idlib from China during the revolution, and is close to HTS. They reportedly rejected the agreement. According to the Syrian government, the group has as many as 10,000 armed fighters, although Western analysts say the number is considerably lower,[89] and the German government estimates 1,500.[88] According to some commentators, many of its leaders are "double-agents", meaning that although the group as a whole is not a part of Al-Qaeda, its leaders are high ranking al-Qaeda members.[91]

Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria

Alliance to Support Islam: the group is another branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria, formed by (whose fighting force is estimated by the German government at 1,000[88]), and Ansar al-Tawhid, strong loyalists to Ayman al-Zawahiri, who rejected Joulani as their leader and the HTS project. It is led by Abu Humam al-Shami.[92] It is thought that the group has about 2,000-3,000 active fighters.[93]

Huras al-Din

Katibat Jabal al-Islam: a Turkmen group, allied to HTS.

[94]

: a group made up from people from the Caucasus countries, that it came to Syria to fight the Russian government and the Assad regime, closely allied with HTS and other rebel groups. It has about 200 fighters.[95]

Ajnad al-Kavkaz

: another Al-Qaeda branch is Syria, thought to be led by Abu Julaib, a veteran Qaeda commander. VOA news states that the group may even be led by Hamza bin Laden. Not many things are heard about the group, and it may have merged with Hurras al-Din.[96]

Jama'at Ansar al-Furqan in Bilad al Sham

: a very small group, made primarily of Chechens.

Junud al-Sham

  − the United Nations praised the deal, hoping that it will be the start of a political solution in Syria.[112]

United Nations

Operation Euphrates Shield

Turkish military operation in Idlib Governorate

Operation Olive Branch

another Syrian buffer zone arranged by Turkey and Russia

Second Northern Syria Buffer Zone

. The New Yorker. 10 December 2018. Retrieved 16 February 2019.

"Syria's Last Bastion of Freedom"