Iraqi civil war (2006–2008)
The Iraqi civil war was an armed conflict from 2006 to 2008 between various sectarian Shia and Sunni armed groups, such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Mahdi Army, in addition to the Iraqi government alongside American-led coalition forces.[18][19][20][21][22] In February 2006, the insurgency against the coalition and government escalated into a sectarian civil war after the bombing of Al-Askari Shrine, considered a holy site in Twelver Shi'ism. US President George W. Bush and Iraqi officials accused Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) of orchestrating the bombing. AQI publicly denied any links.[23] The incident set off a wave of attacks on Sunni civilians by Shia militants, followed by attacks on Shia civilians by Sunni militants.[24]
This article is about the civil war that started in 2006. For the broader conflict, see Iraq War. For the entire conflict from 2003 to the present, see Iraqi conflict (2003–present). For other wars in Iraq, see Iraq War (disambiguation).
The UN Secretary General stated in September 2006 that if patterns of discord and violence continued, the Iraqi state was in danger of breaking up.[25] On 10 January 2007, Bush said that "80% of Iraq's sectarian violence occurs within 30 miles (48 km) of the capital. This violence is splitting Baghdad into sectarian enclaves, and shakes the confidence of all Iraqis."[26] By late 2007, the National Intelligence Estimate described the conflict as having elements of a civil war.[27] In 2008, during the Sunni Awakening and the U.S. troop surge, violence declined dramatically.[28][29] However, an insurgency by ISI continued to plague Iraq following the U.S. withdrawal in late 2011.[30] In June 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the successor to Islamic State of Iraq, launched a major military offensive against the Iraq government and declared a self-proclaimed worldwide Islamic caliphate. This led to another full-scale war from 2013 to 2017, in which the government declared victory.[31]
In October 2006, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the Iraqi government estimated that more than 370,000 Iraqis had been displaced since 2006, bringing the total number of Iraqi refugees to more than 1.6 million.[32] By 2008, the UNHCR raised the estimate to about 4.7 million (~16% of the population). The number estimated abroad was 2 million (a number close to CIA projections[33]) and the number of internally displaced people was 2.7 million.[34] The Red Cross stated in 2008 that Iraq's humanitarian situation was among the most critical in the world, with millions of Iraqis forced to rely on insufficient and poor-quality water sources.[35]
According to the Failed States Index, produced by Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace, Iraq was one of the world's top 5 unstable states from 2005 to 2008.[36]
Conflict and tactics[edit]
Non-military targets[edit]
Attacks on non-military and civilian targets began in August 2003 as an attempt to sow chaos and sectarian discord. Iraqi casualties increased over the next several years.[41][42]
By the end of 2008, where the civil war had ended, there was evidence of a decrease in civilian casualties, and likewise in ethno-sectarian casualties. The commanding general of the Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I), Raymond Odierno, testified before the House Armed Services Committee in September 2009 that overall attacks had decreased 85% in the last two years from 4064 in August 2007 to 594 in August. 2009: with 563 attacks in September (through September 28).[43]
Each theory summarizes and illuminates a certain set of causes that triggered the sectarian civil war in Iraq since 2006.
Iraq was already a weak state before the invasion in 2003, with multiple economic sanctions that affected the capacity of the Iraqi state. The Hussein regime lacked legitimacy as the people did not perceive it as a legitimate ruler at the time of the U.S. invasion. The key factor evidencing the lack of Iraqi state capacity is the inability to provide security for its inhabitants.[64]
The failure of the state was a morisco to trigger the civil war, after the invasion by the US government lawlessness was present which triggered a security vacuum.[65] The sectarian security dilemma was triggered by the security vacuum of the collapse of the state and the subsequent period of violence after the al-Askari mosque bombing.[64]
Economic and political problems undermined the Iraqi state, stemming from previous wars in which Iraq was involved. The sectarian basis of Hussein's regime delimited the conflict that was taking place between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, which meant that poor leadership had incurred in triggering the civil war.[66][64]
The economy is a key factor in understanding the development of the sectarian conflict that occurred. The Sunnis, compared to other ethnic groups, had more purchasing power due to higher job preferences and wages during Hussein's rule. With the U.S. invasion and the fall of Hussein, thousands of Sunnis were left without jobs, leading them to join the insurgency. Control of oil was also a factor, thanks to non-existent legislation on the dispersal of oil revenues.[67][64]
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