January 2008 update: 1,033,000 deaths[edit]
Opinion Research Business published an update to the survey on 28 January 2008, based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken and as a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.[4]
Criticism[edit]
The ORB poll estimate has come under criticism in a peer reviewed paper entitled "Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate", published in the journal Survey Research Methods. This paper "describes in detail how the ORB poll is riddled with critical inconsistencies and methodological shortcomings", and concludes that the ORB poll is "too flawed, exaggerated and ill-founded to contribute to discussion of the human costs of the Iraq war".[9][10]
Epidemiologist Francisco Checci echoed these conclusions in a 2010 BBC World Service interview, stating that he thinks the ORB estimate was "too high" and "implausible". Checci, like the paper above, says that a "major weakness" of the poll was a failure to adequately distinguish between households and extended family.[11]
The Iraq Body Count project also rejected what they called the "hugely exaggerated death toll figures" of ORB, citing the Survey Research Methods paper, which Josh Dougherty of IBC co-wrote.[9] IBC concluded that, "The pressing need is for more truth rooted in real experience, not the manipulation of numbers disconnected from reality."[12]
John Rentoul, a columnist for The Independent newspaper, has asserted that the ORB estimate "exaggerate[s] the toll by a factor of as much as 10" and that "the ORB estimate has rarely been treated as credible by responsible media organisations, but it is still widely repeated by cranks and the ignorant."[13]