Peace negotiations in the Russian invasion of Ukraine
There have been several rounds of peace talks to halt the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022–present) and end the Russo-Ukrainian War (2014–present) in an armistice. The first meeting was held four days after the start of the invasion, on 28 February 2022, in Belarus. It concluded without result, with delegations from both sides returning to their capitals for consultations.[1] A second and third round of talks took place on 3 and 7 March 2022,[2][3] on the Belarus–Ukraine border, in an undisclosed location in the Gomel region of Belarus.[4] A fourth and fifth round of talks were respectively held on 10 and 14 March in Antalya, Turkey.[5][6]
This article is about peace negotiations since the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. For the previous peace process, see Minsk agreements.
During a series of meetings, by the end of March Russia and Ukraine negotiators produced the Istanbul Communiqué, "Key Provisions of the Treaty on Ukraine's Security Guarantees" - a framework of a possible agreement. The agreement would have declared Ukraine to be a neutral state, put a limit on its military, and list Russia and Western countries, including the US and the UK, as guarantors, obliged to assist Ukraine in case of aggression against it. The talks almost reached agreement, with both sides "consider[ing] far-reaching concessions", but stopped in May 2022 due to a combination of several factors.[7]
Peace talks and the stability of international borders were further discussed in the Ukrainian parliament during the week of 9 May 2022. Following the 2022 Ukrainian eastern counteroffensive, Russia renewed calls for peace talks, with the sources from the Russian government reporting that Russia is not truly committed to peace and is simply stalling for time while its forces trained and replenished for a future advance.[8]
Background
Russia was a signatory to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum political agreement, providing security assurances to Ukraine. Russia reaffirmed this assurance in 2009.[9] After the Russian occupation of Crimea began in 2014, Putin claimed that the Revolution of Dignity had created a new political entity and any prior agreement with Ukraine was therefore void.[10]
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has repeatedly engineered frozen conflicts to block the expansion of NATO or the European Union into the former Soviet sphere of influence.[11][12][13][14] Conflicts are deemed "frozen" when fighting has stopped but no political resolution has been achieved. In 2014, Russia orchestrated separatist movements in Ukraine,[15] and Russian proxy forces began the Donbas war.[16][11][14] After Ukraine recovered significant territory up to August 2014, Russia intervened with conventional forces, leading to negotiated ceasefires through the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.[15] These ceasefires had potential to freeze the conflict, but sporadic offensives by Russia-backed separatists continued.[15] Although Russia was a party to the Minsk agreements, it later denied any obligations, claiming to have only been a mediator between Ukraine and separatist forces.[17]
In the lead-up to the invasion, Russia's president Vladimir Putin repeatedly attacked Ukraine's right to exist and referred to Ukraine as "historically Russian lands". In his July 2021 essay "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", he claimed there is "no historical basis" for the "idea of Ukrainian people as a nation separate from the Russians".[18] On 24 February 2022, Russia began the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an escalation of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.[19]
Negotiating positions
Russia
Shortly before the invasion, Russia demanded an international treaty to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO but also withdrawal of NATO from existing member states and reversal to the 1997 presence.[20][21] This was rejected by NATO as it would go against its "open-door policy" and the principle of self-determination. NATO offered to improve communication with Russia and discuss missile placements and military exercises, as long as Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine's borders.[22]
Russia's demands at the start of the invasion included recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea, recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic as independent states, as well as "demilitarization" and "denazification" of Ukraine but did not clearly specify meaning of these postulates.[23] Russian propaganda falsely claimed that Ukraine's government were neo-Nazis carrying out "genocide" in the Donbas.[24][25] An editorial "What Russia Should Do with Ukraine", published in Russian state media, explained the "denazification" as complete eradication of Ukrainian national identity.[25] Genocide scholar Eugene Finkel said the document was an admission of intent to commit genocide in Ukraine.[25] It is unclear to what extent the editorial reflected official policy, but Ukrainian-Canadian diplomat Roman Waschuk said that the appearance of the editorial around the same time as the Bucha massacre made negotiations more difficult.[25]
In September 2022, Reuters reported that Putin's envoy on Ukraine Dmitry Kozak had struck a provisional deal that would satisfy Russia's demand for Ukraine to stay out of NATO, but the plan was rejected by Putin who preferred a full-scale military invasion.[26] After Russia declared it had annexed the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that these additional annexations must be recognized before any peace plan.[27] In April 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he wanted any peace negotiations to focus on creating a "new world order" to counter global hegemony of the United States.[28] In January 2024, Putin again made statements which suggested, according to the Institute for the Study of War, that his "maximalist objectives in Ukraine" remained unchanged, "which are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender". He again called for the overthrow of the Ukrainian government.[29]
Timeline
Early negotiations (24 February to 7 April 2022)
Deputy Kremlin Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak said in 2022 that he had negotiated an agreement with Ukraine within a few days of the invasion.[38] This settlement would have ended hostilities in exchange for guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO. The agreement was however blocked by Putin, who "expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory".[39] A Kremlin spokesman denied the story.[38]
Copenhagen format meetings
The Ukrainian Peace Plan has been publicized at a series of meetings that began on 25 June 2023;[185][186] the conference, which was held in Copenhagen, was attended by 15 countries.[187] The conference series has been given the name Copenhagen format as a result by some news outlets. The second meeting in Copenhagen format was held in Jeddah on 6 August 2023; China along with about 40 countries participated there.[188] The next meeting was held in Malta on 28 October 2023,[189][190] with 65 nations in attendance.[191] The next meeting in this format was held in Davos at the World Economic Forum in January 2024; delegates from 83 nations were present.[192][193]
Opinion polls
In the poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) between 13 and 18 May 2022, 82% of Ukrainians said they did not support any territorial concessions to Russia, even if that meant prolonging the war.[228] Another KIIS poll conducted in September 2022 found that 87% of Ukrainians opposed any territorial concessions to Russia.[229] A Gallup poll conducted in Ukraine in early September 2022 showed that 70% of Ukrainians want to continue the war with Russia until they achieve victory, while only 26% favor negotiations to end the war as soon as possible.[230] According to an opinion poll conducted in July 2022, 58% of Ukrainians said that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine.[120] In a survey conducted by the KIIS between 26 May and 1 June 2024, 58% of Ukrainians said they opposed concessions in negotiations with Russia, down from 80% in May 2022.[231]
According to a survey conducted by the Levada Center at the end of October 2022, 57% of Russian respondents favored the start of peace talks with Ukraine, and 36% preferred the continuation of hostilities.[232] The Kremlin's analysis concluded that public support in Russia for the war was broad but not deep, and that most Russians would accept anything Putin would call a victory. In September 2023, the head of the VTsIOM state pollster Valery Fyodorov said in an interview that only 10-15% of Russians actively supported the war, and that "most Russians are not demanding the conquest of Kyiv or Odesa."[159]
A poll of Germans conducted by the Forsa and published in January 2023 found that over 80% believe it is more important to end the war through negotiations than for Ukraine to win, with only 18% disagreeing.[233] A YouGov poll showed that in February 2023, 63% of respondents in Sweden wanted to support Ukraine in a war with Russia until Russian troops leave all occupied territories, even if it means prolonging the war. In Denmark, the corresponding figures were 56%; in Britain 53%, in the United States 46%, in Spain 44%; Germany 40%, France 37% and Italy 29%.[234]
Between May and October 2023, US public support for arming Ukraine in its war against Russia decreased. Support for US weapon shipments to Ukraine dropped from 46% to 41% compared to a poll taken in May 2023. Both sides of the political spectrum saw a decline. Since the counteroffensive started in June 2023, Ukrainian forces have only retaken a series of small villages and settlements and are only in control of a small percentage of the territories occupied by Russian forces.[235]