Political status of Nagorno-Karabakh
The political status of Nagorno-Karabakh remained unresolved from its declaration of independence on 10 December 1991[1][2] to its September 2023 collapse. During Soviet times, it had been an ethnic Armenian autonomous oblast of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a conflict arose between local Armenians who sought to have Nagorno-Karabakh join Armenia and local Azerbaijanis who opposed this.
The conflict soon escalated into ethnic cleansing and open warfare in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, as a result of which the region came under the control of an Armenia-allied de facto state, the Republic of Artsakh. The surrounding regions of Azerbaijan were occupied by the self-declared republic under the justification of a "security belt," which was intended to be exchanged for recognition of autonomous status from Azerbaijan.[3][4]
Negotiations took place sporadically over the following decades, during which a ceasefire generally prevailed between Armenia/Artsakh and Azerbaijan (albeit without peacekeeping forces). Turkey and Azerbaijan closed their borders to Armenia and took other diplomatic steps to isolate it. Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council, OSCE Minsk Group, and other bodies made various statements and proposed dialogue initiatives, none of which were successful.
In the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijani forces, backed by Turkey, took control of the southern half of the region, including Shusha and Hadrut. Armenia was forced to concede additional territories to preserve Stepanakert and the northern half of the Republic of Artsakh under local Armenian control, protected by Russian peacekeepers. The political status of this reduced region was not specified in the ceasefire agreement. In the wake of a tightened blockade by Azerbaijan, in which the Lachin Corridor was closed, and subsequent Azerbaijani offensive on 19 September 2023, the Artsakh government surrendered and voted to disband itself, effective 1 January 2024,[5] although it later annulled this decree in exile for being unconstitutional.[6][7] But Armenia's prime-minister recognized Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Karabakh, and rejected the functioning of Nagorno-Karabakh government in exile in Armenia.[8]
Virtually all of the Karabakhi Armenian population fled to Armenia via the newly-reopened Lachin Corridor. Despite being offered Azerbaijani citizenship, Karabakh's Armenian residents did not trust Azerbaijan's guarantees of security due to the country's history of human rights abuses, Armenophobia, and lack of rights to ethnic minorities.[9][10][11]
The Republic of Artsakh was never recognized by any UN member state, including Armenia. For 30 years, international mediators and human rights organizations referred to the right of self-determination for the Armenian population.[12][13] Following the second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan refused any special status or autonomy to its ethnically Armenian residents.[14][15]
Political ties with Armenia[edit]
In the 2005 case of Chiragov and others v. Armenia, the European Court of Human Rights decided that "the Republic of Armenia, from the early days of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, has had a significant and decisive influence over the 'NKR', [Nagorno-Karabakh Republic] that the two entities are highly integrated in virtually all important matters and that this situation persists to this day."[16]
According to Human Rights Watch, "from the beginning of the Karabakh conflict, Armenia provided aid, weapons, and volunteers. Armenian involvement in Karabakh escalated after a December 1993 Azerbaijani offensive. The Republic of Armenia began sending conscripts and regular Army and Interior Ministry troops to fight in Karabakh."[17]
However, the government of Armenia has never formally recognized the sovereignty of Artsakh and since 2022, its leadership has made statements suggesting it is ready to recognize the region as part of Azerbaijan, causing outrage across various sectors of Nagorno-Karabakh, including in its government.[18]
Remedial secession[edit]
Various political analysts and international observers have emphasized self-determination for the indigenous Armenian population, both as an internationally recognized right and as a form of genocide prevention.[92][93][94][95] According to the principle of remedial secession, a group of people can unilaterally secede in order to protect themselves from the parent state's oppressive regime, a principal enacted by Kosovo to support its independence from Serbia. Various politicians and political analysts have argued that the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh may also be eligible for enacting remedial secession due to the extreme anti-Armenianism within Azerbaijan.[96][97][98][99][100]
Geoffrey Robertson, first president of the UN's War Crimes Court for Sierra Leone, listed the pogroms of Sumgait (1988) and Baku (1990), Operation Ring (1991), the Siege of Stepanakert (1991), and the Blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh as incidents of "excessive discrimination and systematic violations" which justified remedial secession for Nagorno-Karabakh.[96]
Status after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War[edit]
Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan has rescinded its offer of special status or autonomy to its indigenous Armenian residents and instead insists on their "integration" into Azerbaijan.[208][209] In 2023, Azerbaijani President Aliyev said that Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh must be "reintegrated" as "normal citizen[s] of Azerbaijan" and that "the [special] status [for Armenians] went to hell. It failed; it was shattered to smithereens. It is not and will not be there. As long as I am president, there will be no status."[210] Aliyev also threatened military action if the Artsakh government does not disband.[72][211]
Despite being offered Azerbaijani citizenship, Artsakh residents do not trust Azerbaijan's guarantees of security due to the country's history of human rights abuses, Armenophobia, and lack of rights to ethnic minorities.[212][213][214] Various human rights observers, scholars specializing in genocide studies, and politicians consider the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh to be a form of ethnic cleansing and warn of the risk of genocide.[215][216][217][218][219][220][221] Many international observers also do not consider Azerbaijan's claim that Artsakh Armenians can live safely under Aliyev’s regime to be credible.[222][223][224][225]
Caucasus expert, Laurence Broers wrote "the blockade [of Nagorno-Karabakh] renders irrelevant any talk of the civil integration of Karabakh Armenians. It vindicates the worst fears of the Karabakh Armenian population."[226] If Azerbaijan takes control over the region, political analysts predict that Azerbaijan will arbitrarily detain and torture civilians, under the pretext of their association with the Artsakh government or with previous wars.[227] At least two incidents of Azerbaijani forces detaining Armenian residents around Azerbaijan's military checkpoint have been confirmed.[228][229]