Spillover of the Israel–Hamas war
Since the beginning of the Israel–Hamas war, which has mostly been confined to southern Israel and the Gaza Strip, a number of armed clashes and standoffs have been reported in other parts of the Middle East, particularly involving Shia Islamist militias backed by Iran.[1] There has been speculation that any escalation of these incidents, specifically between Israel and Hezbollah—an Iranian-backed Shia militia which is based in southern Lebanon and which is more powerful than the Lebanese Armed Forces (see Hezbollah armed strength)—could bring the entire region into a full-scale military conflict. In addition to the Israel–Hezbollah conflict, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia—which controls parts of northern Yemen, but is not internationally recognized as the country's government (see Presidential Leadership Council)—became directly involved in the conflict by firing missiles at Israeli cities, albeit on a limited scale; the Houthis have since focused more on seizing civilian cargo ships passing through the Red Sea in order to inflict economic losses on Israel and the global economy, evoking American and British airstrikes against Houthi-controlled Yemen. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have also mounted numerous attacks against American military bases in the region; these confrontations have increasingly escalated tensions between long-time adversaries Iran and the United States, especially after the 2024 Iranian missile strikes in Iraq and Syria.[2] In the West Bank, over 100 Palestinians have been killed in armed confrontations with Israeli soldiers and Israeli settlers, as violence in the territory increased drastically following the Hamas-led attack on Israel.[3][4]
Background
The outbreak of the Israel–Hamas war had followed Hezbollah's declaration of support and praise for the Hamas-led attack on Israel, which took place on 7 October 2023, in which Palestinian factions in Lebanon immediately took part in.[5][6] In the coming weeks other Iranian-backed groups, such as the Houthis, expressed their support after the 7 October attack on Israel. From the inception of Hezbollah to the present[7][8][9][10] the destruction of the State of Israel has been a primary goal for Hezbollah. Hezbollah not only opposes the government and policies of the State of Israel, but also each and every Jewish civilian who lives in Israel.[11] Its 1985 manifesto reportedly states "our struggle will end only when this entity [Israel] is obliterated. We recognize no treaty with it, no ceasefire, and no peace agreements."[12] The Houthi movement is a Shia militant organization which controls northern Yemen and is supported and funded by Iran.[13] Houthis have been accused, particularly by the governments of the United States and United Kingdom, of acting as an Iranian proxy.[14]
Casualties
West Bank
In the West Bank, related violence during the conflict killed 243 Palestinians and wounded at least 2,472.[137] Several thousand Gazan workers were in Israel at the time when the conflict started. As of 16 October some of them were detained at a "holding facility" in the West Bank while others sought refuge in the Palestinian communities of the West Bank.[138] The Minister of Labor for the Palestinian Authority estimated 4,500 workers are unaccounted for while Israeli media outlet N12 reported 4,000 Gazans were in Israeli holding facilities. The Palestinian Prisoners Society said that Israeli forces had arrested over 1,450 West Bank Palestinians since 7 October.[139] On 29 October, thirty Israeli human rights organizations addressed settler violence in the West Bank, asking the international community to "act urgently" to end it.[140] On 30 October, the German government called on Israel to protect Palestinians in the West Bank.[141] On 31 October, EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell "firmly condemned" settler attacks in the West Bank.[142] Linda Thomas-Greenfield stated the United States was "deeply concerned," and condemned the killings of Palestinians in the West Bank.[143]
Lebanon
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that 76,000 Lebanese were displaced from their homes. As of 8 January 2024, the Ministry of Public Health of Lebanon reported 570 people wounded.[144]
An Israeli strike on 13 October killed Reuters videographer Issam Abdallah and injured six other journalists from Reuters, Agence France-Presse and Al Jazeera.[145] A February 2024 report by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon concluded that an Israeli tank killed Abadallah when it fired at "clearly identifiable journalists", and that this broke international law. [146] The report "assessed that there was no exchange of fire across the Blue Line at the time of the incident", with no records of any exchange of fire across the border for the 40 minutes before the tank firing.[146] The Israel Defense Forces responded to the United Nations report by claiming that Hezbollah attacked them, so tank fire was used to retaliate.[146]
At least 200 militants were killed. 157 Hezbollah members, including at least 10 in Syria, 16 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad members, one Amal Movement member and one SSNP member. One Lebanese army soldier was killed and three others were injured.
Israel
At least 65,000 civilians were displaced in a mass evacuation from northern Israel. Three Israeli civilians were killed. On 5 November, two Israeli civilians were killed. One was killed when anti-tank missiles hit the Yiftah kibbutz and another in Kiryat Shmona.[147] On 23 November, in Hezbollah's deadliest attack since the start of the clashes, Hezbollah anti-tank missile and mortar attacks killed an employee of the Israel Electric Corporation who was conducting repair work and injured 21 other Israelis, including seven IDF soldiers and six of the fatality's colleagues.[26][27]
In total 12 IDF soldiers, including deputy commander Alim Abdallah, and 6 civilians were killed in strikes from Lebanon into northern Israel.[148]
Red Sea and Yemen
U.S.-lead airstrikes in Yemen killed 10 and wounded 2 Houthi rebels on 31 December 2023.[149] Five more were killed and 6 wounded in attacks on 12 January 2024.[150]
Two American Navy Seals were declared dead after being missing during an operation to seize Iranian weapons supplying Houthis in Yemen.[151]
Diplomatic fallout
In 2023 before the conflict, Israel and Saudi Arabia were reported to be working on normalizing relations. These talks have since ceased.
In 2022 and 2023, the Biden administration was making nominal progress on restoring some components of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known in the West as the "Iran nuclear deal". These talks have not resumed since the conflict began.