Strauss–Howe generational theory
The Strauss–Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American history and Western history. According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) lasting around 20–25 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate (mood) exists. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 100 years, although some saecula have lasted longer). The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every saeculum, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.
Not to be confused with Theory of generations.
Strauss and Howe laid the groundwork for their theory in their book Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (1991), which discusses the history of the United States as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584.[1] In their book The Fourth Turning (1997), the authors expanded the theory to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras[2] to describe the history of the United States, including the Thirteen Colonies and their British antecedents. However, the authors have also examined generational trends elsewhere in the world and described similar cycles in several developed countries.[3]
Academic response to the theory has been mixed, with some applauding Strauss and Howe for their "bold and imaginative thesis", while others have criticized the theory as being overly deterministic, unfalsifiable, and unsupported by rigorous evidence.[4][5][6][7][8] Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, who graduated from Harvard University with Strauss, called Generations the most stimulating book on American history he had ever read, and even sent a copy to each member of Congress.[8] The theory has been influential in the fields of generational studies, marketing, and business management literature.[6] However, the theory has also been described by some historians and journalists as pseudoscientific,[6][9][10] "kooky",[11] and "an elaborate historical horoscope that will never withstand scholarly scrutiny".[12][13][14] Academic criticism has focused on the lack of rigorous empirical evidence for their claims,[15] as well as the authors' view that generational groupings are more powerful than other social groupings, such as economic class, race, sex, religion, and political parties.[1]
In popular culture[edit]
American electronic musician Oneohtrix Point Never was inspired by The Fourth Turning for the concept of his 2018 album Age Of and its accompanying performance installation MYRIAD.[101]
Will Arbery's play Heroes of the Fourth Turning, first produced at New York's Playwrights Horizons in 2019, is inspired by the theories of Strauss and Howe, and the character Teresa is a vocal proponent of them.[102][103]
The 2022 Netflix series The Watcher features a scene citing postulations from The Fourth Turning.[104]