Safe seat

A safe seat is an electoral district (constituency) in a legislative body (e.g. congress, parliament, city council) which is regarded as fully secure, for either a certain political party, or the incumbent representative personally or a combination of both. With such seats, there is very little chance of a seat changing hands because of the political leanings of the electorate in the constituency concerned or the popularity of the incumbent member. The opposite (i.e. more competitive) type of seat is a marginal seat. The phrase "tantamount to election" is often used to describe winning the dominant party's nomination for a safe seat.

a riding in southeastern New Brunswick, which is considered a safe seat for the Liberal Party.^[5] In 1990, when Jean Chrétien needed an open seat to become Leader of the Opposition, he chose Beauséjour in a by-election and won.^[6]

Beauséjour

located in southern Alberta, is considered a safe seat for the Conservatives. In the 2015 federal election, the Conservative candidate won by 77% of the vote.

Bow River

located in east-central Nova Scotia, which has previously been called a safe seat for the Conservative Party and its predecessor, the Progressive Conservative Party, having been held by either Elmer MacKay or his son Peter for all but five of forty years until 2015. The only time the riding was not in Conservative control was from 1993 to 1997, when the Progressive Conservatives were reduced to just two seats nationwide and a socially conservative candidate ran for the Liberals. In 1983, when Brian Mulroney became Progressive Conservative leader and needed a seat in the House of Commons, he chose to run in Central Nova.^[7] Liberal MP Sean Fraser won the seat in 2015,^[8] and was re-elected in 2019 and 2021.^[9]

Central Nova

a Conservative stronghold located in southern Alberta, which has been called the safest seat in the entire country. In the 2008 election, Conservative candidate Kevin Sorenson won 82.04% of the vote, and in a ranking measuring the electoral competitiveness of ridings by National Post reporter Dan Arnold, the district came in last in all of Canada, having an average margin of victory of 74%.^[10]

Crowfoot

the successor to Crowfoot, is a solid Conservative stronghold and is considered one of the most solid seats in Canada. In the 2015 federal election, the Conservative candidate won by 80.91% of the vote.

Battle River—Crowfoot

a Liberal stronghold in Montreal, Quebec, held by a succession of Liberal MPs since 1940. Liberal Irwin Cotler won over 75% of the vote in the 2004 federal election.^[11]

Mount Royal

a Liberal stronghold in the eastern part of Ottawa. It has elected a Liberal Member of Parliament each federal election since its creation in 1935, often in landslide victories. In fact, the previous electoral district which comprises most of the constituency, Russell, had been solidly Liberal since 1887.

Ottawa—Vanier

one of many rural, southern safe seats in the Prairies for the Conservative Party of Canada.

Portage—Lisgar

yet another Liberal safe seat in Montreal.^[12] It has been held by the Liberals since its creation.^[13] In the 2004 federal election, incumbent Stéphane Dion won with over 65% of the vote, and over 21,000 votes more than his closest rival.^[14]

Saint-Laurent—Cartierville

a Conservative stronghold, also in southern Alberta. The incumbent, Blake Richards, won 72.9% of the vote in the 2008 election in what ranked as the largest majority win in its history. His predecessor, Myron Thompson, won 72% compared to 10% for his closest rival in the 2006 federal election.

Wild Rose

a safe seat for the Liberals in Toronto. Since the district's re-establishment in 1952, it has been out of Liberal hands only twice.^[15]

York Centre

The City of Toronto, which holds is often considered a Liberal stronghold, having shut out the Conservative Party from the city in the six elections between 1993 and 2008, and having lost at most two ridings in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections to the New Democratic Party.^[16] The 2011 Canadian Federal Election ended the Liberal fortress of Toronto when both Conservatives and New Democrats elected many new MPs in Toronto. The former Liberal strength was restored in 2015 as they won all 25 Toronto ridings.^[17] The city is not as safe at the provincial level; for instance, the Liberal Party of Ontario won only 3 of Toronto's 41 ridings in the 2018 provincial election.

25 ridings

a riding in Southern New Brunswick, is usually a safe seat for Conservatives. It has only been held by two Liberal MPs since its founding in 1914, its first having held one term from 1993 to 1997 and the latest having been elected in 2015.

Fundy Royal

Southern Calgary, particularly , Calgary Heritage and Calgary Midnapore, is considered to be a solid Conservative stronghold. In the 3 April 2017 by-elections, the Conservative candidate for Midnapore won by 77% of the vote and the Conservative candidate for Heritage won by 71% of the vote. In the 2015 federal election, the Conservative candidate for Shepard won by 65% of the vote.

Calgary Shepard

located in Alberta near Edmonton, is considered a Conservative stronghold. In the 23 October 2017 by-election, the Conservative candidate won by 77% of the vote.

Sturgeon River—Parkland

located in Eastern Saskatchewan, is considered a Conservative stronghold, despite its low population. In the 11 December 2017 by-election, the Conservative candidate won by 69% of the vote.

Battlefords—Lloydminster

Examples include:

formerly called Teaching in the colonial period, has been a safe seat of HKPTU since 1985 until now. Except the incumbent Ip Kin-yuen, the LEGCO member elected in this constituency are members of the Democratic Party Hong Kong.

Education

has been a safe seat of Pro-democracy camp since 1985, and a safe seat for Civic Party since 2008. Ip Sik On, who was elected by this constituency in 1991, is the only one who is not from the pro-democracy camp.

Legal

There is no formal definition in Hong Kong, yet there are some functional constituency seats which are regarded as fully secured by a political party or a political camp.

Fully secured by the pan-democracy camp:

Fully secured by the pro-Beijing camp:

A seat with winning percentage under 55.9% by a candidate identified as 'Margin' seat.

A seat with winning percentage between 56% and 59.9% by a candidate identified as 'Fairly safe' seat.

A seat with winning percentage more than 60% by a candidate identified as 'Safe' seat.

In Malaysia, the percentage of votes secured by a winning candidate defines the seat margin. In this case:

The northern, east coast, and rural constituencies have been safe seats for the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and Perikatan Nasional (PN). Especially in Kelantan, PAS has been in government since 1990 (7 consecutive terms).

Pakatan Harapan, the senior coalition in the current government has been a dominant coalition in highly industrialized states, namely Penang, Selangor and Kuala Lumpur. Even prior to the 2008 elections which ended Barisan Nasional dominant over the country, PH and its predecessors performed well in these states despite never having a chance to rule over the states before. For Barisan Nasional, another major partner in the government, the southern states and Sabah are the safe seats for the coalition. During its dominant period, it also controlled Sarawak and west coast states.

Sabah and Sarawak are safe states for their local parties, with Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and Gabungan Parti Sarawak governing the states with supermajority. For Sabah, despite being described as a swing state in the past, it has been consistently ruled by parties that once a part in BN. Prior to the 2018 elections, these states were described as 'fixed deposits' for BN as they won almost all seats there with a landslide.

: A Fuentebella has served in Congress since 1925. The Fuentebellas have held this district since its creation in 2010, held the 3rd district from 1992 to 2010, and the 2nd district from 1925 to 1972, except from 1931 to 1935, and from 1946 to 1953. A Fuentebella represented Bicol from 1978 to 1984.^[24]

Camarines Sur–4th

: A Durano had held this seat until 2019 when they were defeated. Prior to redistricting, the Duranos held Cebu–1st since 1949. The Duranos have also held the mayorship of Danao, the largest city in the district, for generations.^[25]

Cebu–5th

: An Albano has held this seat since 1987. Prior to redistricting, an Albano has represented Isabela's at-large district or the Cagayan Valley from 1957 to 1986, except from 1965 to 1969.^[26]

Isabela–1st

: An Ortega has held this seat since 1945 except for two instances, and continually since 1969.^[27]

La Union–1st

: A Cojuangco has held this seat from 1907 to 1909, from 1934 to 1946, and continually since 1961.

Tarlac–1st

While party-switching in the Philippines is rampant, certain congressional districts have been held by political families for generations. These are:

Under the usual definition, Capiz–1st has been held by the Liberal Party since 1946, except from 1953 to 1957. Bohol's 3rd district has been held by the Nacionalista Party from 1946 to 1972.

South Korea[edit]

From the 1960s, parliamentary constituencies in Gyeongsang region, especially Northern Gyeongbuk and Western Gyeongnam, are considered as safe seats for People Power Party.

City centres in Southeastern Gyeongnam, Southern Gyeogbuk and parliamentary constituencies in rural Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam and Gyeonggi and affluent villages in such as Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, Songpa-gu and Yongsan-gu of Seoul, Haeundae-gu, Nam-gu, Dongnae-gu and Suyeong-gu of Busan are also considered as safe seats for People Power Party.

Parliamentary constituencies in industrial areas and built-up residential areas in Gyeonggi, Southeastern Gyeongnam, Cheongju – Daejeon – Sejong City and Jeolla regions such as Jeonbuk and Jeonnam are considered as safe seats for the Democratic Party.

United States[edit]

The Cook Partisan Voting Index rates congressional districts on how strongly they lean toward either major party. As of the 2022 redistricting, California's 12th district is the most Democratic at D+40, while Alabama's 4th district is the most Republican at R+33.^[35]

Other examples of a safe seat for the Democrats is California's 11th congressional district, which currently covers most of the city of San Francisco. This district and its predecessors have been in Democratic hands without interruption since 1949. Its current representative, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was most recently reelected with 77.6 percent of the vote.^[36]

Safe Republican seats include Tennessee's 1st congressional district and Tennessee's 2nd congressional district, which are located in the eastern part of the state. Both districts have been held by Republicans or their predecessors (except for two terms in the 1st) since 1859. These districts elected some of the few truly senior Southern Republican Congressmen before the 1950s.

Gerrymandering

corrupt types of safe seat in the United Kingdom prior to the Reform Act 1832