Terminology[edit]

Political analyst Charlie Cook describes wave elections as the result of an "overarching, nationwide dynamic," such as a high or low presidential approval rating, economic conditions, and scandals.^[7][8] Cook contrasts wave elections with "micro-elections" in which neither party makes significant gains, and candidates, local issues, and other factors not strictly related to party alignment have a stronger role than in wave elections.^[7] Although several wave elections may occur in a row, wave elections are usually considered to be the exception rather than the norm.^[8] A pick-up of 20 seats in the United States House of Representatives has been used as a cut-off point by analysts such as Stuart Rothenberg.^[9][10][11] However, political scientist Dan Hopkins has argued that the term has little utility in understanding elections and that there is no clear cut-off point between a wave election and other elections.^[12]


Congressional incumbents in the United States enjoy an electoral advantage over challengers, but a wave election often boosts challengers, resulting in many more incumbents losing than usual during wave elections.^[2] A wave election can put into play seats that would otherwise be considered safe for the party holding the seat, and help even flawed challengers defeat incumbents.^[2][9] Since at least 1954, wave elections have always benefited one party at the expense of the other, but the term has also been used to describe a hypothetical scenario in which numerous incumbents from both parties lose their seats.^[2][8] The first election after redistricting is often a wave election, since many incumbents are less firmly rooted in their districts following redistricting, and many other incumbents retire or suffer primary defeats.^[2]


A wave election may also be concurrent with a landslide election, a term which usually refers to decisive victories in presidential contests. Many wave elections occur during midterm elections, with the party out of power picking up seats.^[1] A common pattern involves a party with a victorious presidential candidate benefiting from a wave election, followed by the opposing party winning a wave election in the next midterm election.^[9] Such occurred in 2008, with the election of Barack Obama as President, followed by the Republican wave of 2010.