Prelude to war: escalation and incidents[edit]
Lifting of CIS sanctions[edit]
On 14 February 2008, President of Russia Vladimir Putin declared that Russia had "homework" prepared in case of Kosovo's declaration of independence and would respond accordingly.[1]
Chairman of the State Duma Boris Gryzlov declared during a meeting with the presidents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in February 2008 that Russia should "reshape its relations with self-proclaimed republics".[2] A session was called by Russia's Duma for 13 March to discuss the issue of recognition of the unrecognized republics in the former Soviet Union.[3] On 26 February 2008, Belgium and Germany asked at NATO Individual Partnership Action Plan summit if Georgia was acting in "conciliatory" manner towards the separatists in contrast to Eastern Europe's full support for granting Membership Action Plan to Georgia.[4]
On 26 February 2008, the Georgian Foreign Ministry issued a note to Vyacheslav Kovalenko, Russian ambassador to Georgia, because the 2008 Russian presidential election would be held in Abkhazia and South Ossetia without Georgia's consent.[5] The Russian presidential election was held in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in February 2008, long before the elections in Russia would be held, and the polling stations were opened in almost all settlements of South Ossetia. According to Shota Malashkhia, the member of the Georgian parliament, ethnic Georgian population in Abkhazia's Gali District was coerced to vote in the Russian elections.[6]
On 6 March 2008, Russia cancelled Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) sanctions imposed on Abkhazia in 1996, and declared them outdated.[7] Georgia's central government in Tbilisi protested the Russian decision. The other CIS countries did not embrace cancellation of sanctions.[8] Shalva Natelashvili, leader of the Georgian Labour Party, warned this Russian action would lead to the loss of Abkhazia for Georgia.[9] Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovenia Dimitrij Rupel said foreign ministers of the European Union were concerned by this development, while Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt stated that Russian economic ties with Abkhazia could lead to de facto annexation which was alarming.[10] European Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner said that there was "a growing preoccupation and anxiety that Russia may be paving the way for recognition of Abkhazia," and declared the EU's support for Georgia's territorial integrity.[10]
On 10 March 2008, first deputy head of the Committee on International Affairs of the Russian State Duma Leonid Slutsky said that Abkhazia "must be encouraged, including by the lifting of restrictions" for the fulfillment of obligations for solving the conflict. On 11 March 2008, Georgian MPs were considering to demand 20 billion United States dollar from Moscow for the damages in Abkhazia.[11]
Increased involvement of Russia with breakaway republics in Georgia[edit]
On 1 March 2008, Russian General Vasily Lunev, former Deputy Commander of Siberian Military District, was appointed as defence minister of South Ossetia.[12][13] After the August war, he suggested in an interview that he, as a military serviceman, obeyed the initiative of his superior to become the commander of the South Ossetian army.[14]
Abkhazia and South Ossetia both submitted formal requests for recognition of their independence to Russia, and international community by 7 March 2008. Both cited the precedent of the recognition of Kosovo.[15][16]
Dmitry Rogozin, Russian ambassador to NATO, threatened that a move by Georgia to accede to NATO could increase the support for the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, arguing that exclusion of the separatist-controlled territories from the NATO referendum held in Georgia showed Georgia's intention to join NATO without them. Vice-speaker of Russian parliament Leonid Slutsky said that "no decisions will be taken" in the parliament hearings on 13 March 2008, since Russia supported Georgia's territorial integrity and "will not suddenly change its position and announce the opposite."[17] Rogozin also said that Ukraine would also lose the eastern territories if it continued the pursuit of NATO membership. Vladimir Socor observed: "At worst, no MAP decision could tempt Russia into testing whether Georgia had become fair game."[4]
On 13 March 2008, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament of South Ossetia Tarzan Kokoity declared that Abkhazia and South Ossetia would become independent in 2008. He stressed that Russia had already unofficially recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia since long.[18] On 13 March, the Duma Committee for CIS, following a hearing on the unrecognized republics, recommended on a deepening of links with Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. Other recommendations included the establishment of diplomatic missions in the regions (with the foreign ministry to choose whether they would be consulates or another type of mission),[19] a removal of import duties on goods created by businesses with Russian co-owners in the regions, and increased humanitarian and economic aid for the residents owning Russian passports.[20] The Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily described the hearing as "the launch of a procedure of recognition."[19]
On 21 March 2008, Russian State Duma adopted a resolution, in which it called on the President of Russia and the government to consider the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.[21] Alexey Ostrovsky, Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs and Relations with Compatriots, said that NATO could not accept Georgia until Georgia settled its territorial disputes.[22] Ostrovsky suggested in April that the Russian government had the right to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgia's NATO membership was "forced".[23]
On 1 April 2008, during his visit to Kiev, American president George W. Bush expressed his support for Georgia's and Ukraine's accession to NATO. Bush planned to meet Russian president Putin on 6 April in Sochi.[24] On 3 April 2008, the heads of state of Abkhazia and South Ossetia received a letter from Russian president Putin at the same time when the NATO summit was being held in Bucharest. The letter called separatist leaders "presidents" and assured them of "practical, not declaratory" assistance from Russia. On 8 April, the Russian Ministry of Justice informed its Georgian colleagues in a letter that Russian links with the two breakaway regions would be bolstered.[25] Journalist Petru Bogatu later wrote that after the Bucharest summit announced that the membership would be considered in December 2008, Russian diplomats and journalists attending the summit suggested that the war in the Caucasus before December was inevitable.[26] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Russia would "do everything" to prevent Georgia's and Ukraine's NATO membership.[25][27] Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Yuri Baluyevsky said on 11 April that Russia would carry out "steps of a different nature" in addition to military action to block NATO membership of former Soviet republics.[28] Baluyevsky's statement was not seen as accidental by Russian media because he had never been known for making unsanctioned statements. Members of the Georgian parliament saw Baluyevsky's statement as a threat of Russian military incursion into Georgia. Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (ODKB) Nikolay Bordyuzha said that ODKB would respond to NATO's enlargement. First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Sergei Ivanov suggested that Russian industrial enterprises and the economy of Russia could be refocused on the needs of the war.[29] On 15 May, Yuri Baluyevsky urged the NATO at a session of NATO–Russia Council to stop arming Georgia. He said: "I do not exclude the possibility of a military conflict in Georgia."[30]
Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on 14 April that soon-to-be announced steps against NATO expansion included the establishment of direct official contacts with separatist authorities and a presidential decree had been prepared to this effect. Konstantin Zatulin, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and Relations with Russian Compatriots, said that the recognition should be postponed to December 2008 to avoid the sharp escalation with the West in the beginning of the presidential term of Dmitry Medvedev. However, he also said, "Now our steps towards the unrecognized republics will meet with understanding in the world as a response to the US recognition of Kosovo. If we do not solve the problem now, then it will remind of itself closer to the Olympics." Russian expert on the Caucasus was concerned by the possible failure of the Georgian opposition: "If the decree is issued before the parliamentary elections in Georgia, this will have an extremely negative impact on the chances of the opposition to win." Anonymous Russian diplomat, who had worked in Georgia, said that direct Russian military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia would prevent Georgia's NATO membership.[31] An anonymous Russian diplomat's words were interpreted as suggesting that de facto annexation was intended by the draft decree.[25]
On 15 April 2008, the embassy of South Ossetia was opened in Sukhumi, Abkhazia.[32]
On 16 April 2008, Vladimir Putin announced that some separatist-authored documents would be accepted by Russia. He said there would be partnership between Russia and separatists in some areas, also ordering his government to recognise entities registered under Abkhaz and South Ossetian laws. The possibility of consular assistance for the populations of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be considered. This decision was linked to the push for Georgia to receive a NATO Membership Action Plan and, indirectly, the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.[33][34] United States Department of State official Sean McCormack said the US were studying Putin's order and the statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Minister for Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia Sergei Shamba said that Abkhazia was very close to the recognition. Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Ossetia Murat Jioev commented: "This is the actual implementation of all methods that the President of the Russian Federation mentioned, saying that they would not repeat the Kosovo option, and Russia has its own preparations."[35] Russian ambassador to Georgia Vyacheslav Kovalenko said that there was no conflict between Georgia and Russia regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia.[36] President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity approved Putin's decision, saying that it was "the only right solution to save the lives of Russian citizens."[37] Rallies were held in Abkhazia on 6 May to thank Vladimir Putin for his support for Abkhazia.[38]
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia David Bakradze said Russian decree to establish ties with the separatis regions was a "legalisation of the de facto annexation process" and Secretary General of NATO Jaap de Hoop Scheffer urged Russia to annul the move.[33] Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt said: "Georgia's territorial integrity contributes to the stability of the wider Caucasus region." He also noted that Putin's decree followed Georgian's announcement of a new peace plan on Abkhazia.[39] 25 members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe issued a declaration stating that Russian peacekeepers were "not neutral but are a party to the conflicts" and the United Nations forces should be deployed in their stead.[40][41] The European Union issued a statement expressing concern and calling on Russia "not to implement" the decision to establish ties with the breakaway regions. On 18 April 2008, United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed her concerns over Putin's decree with her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov during their phone talk held at her initiative.[42][43] US presidential candidate John McCain said that Russia's aim was "de facto annexation".[44] Ukraine,[45] President of Lithuania Valdas Adamkus, Chairman of the OSCE Alexander Stubb, US envoy to the OSCE Julie Finley, Special Representative of the United Kingdom Brian Fall and members of the European Parliament also condemned the Russian move.[46] Direct contacts between Russia and Abkhazia on the relocation of Russian citizens from Abkhaz jails raised concern from Secretary General of the Council of Europe Terry Davis since the dealings were done without seeking the permission of the Georgian government.[47]
On 22 April 2008, Vadim Gustov, member of the Federation Council of Russia, said that the Federation Council would not adopt a resolution recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia because the Russian peacekeeping mandate would be terminated.[48] The next day, the Federation Council postponed the consideration of the recognition.[49]
The 110th United States Congress passed a resolution on 6 May that said the recent Russian actions were "provocative" and Russia "impedes reconciliation between those regions and the government of the Republic of Georgia".[50] On 8 May 2008, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried stated at the Congress: "While we have urged restraint on Georgia, there is a difference between a very small vulnerable country and a very large country that we have to keep in mind."[51] In May 2008, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza said that Russia’s "provocative actions" was seen "as working against cause of peaceful settlement" of the Georgian-Abkhaz issue. On 12 May, the Russian Foreign Ministry denounced Bryza's statement.[52] Robert Parsons suggested on 13 May that Russia was provoking Georgia "into hasty action." He concluded, "a war between Georgia and Russia would be a disaster. Yet it is a measure of Russia's ambition, and of western diffidence, that such an outcome is becoming conceivable."[53]
Russia's state-owned Gazprom was reported to be planning oil and gas survey in Abkhazia beginning 1 July 2008. In addition, Abkhazia said international airline flights from Russia could use Sukhumi airport though the International Civil Aviation Organization had said such flights would be inadmissible.[54] Officials from Gazprom said Gazprom did not plan oil exploration in Abkhazia, but did say there was a proposal being considered to build a gas pipeline to Abkhazia.[55] Responding to Russian media reports that sea links between Sochi in Russia and Gagra in Abkhazia would be resumed, Georgia threatened to complain to international marine organizations over the use of "illegal" routes.[56]
New peace efforts[edit]
Spring 2008[edit]
On 5 March 2008, Georgia left the Joint Control Commission for Georgian–Ossetian Conflict Resolution and suggested a new negotiation scheme which would include the EU, OSCE and the Sanakoyev government.[314][323]
On 28 March 2008, the Office of the Georgian State Minister for Reintegration summmoned an international conference "The Role of Non-Governmental Organisations in the Processes of Reintegration in Georgia". The conference was attended by the President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili. Saakashvili announced new initiatives on the Abkhaz conflict, which were a joint free economic zone, Abkhaz representation in the central government and an Abkhaz vice-president, the right to veto all Abkhaz-related decisions, limitless autonomy and various security guarantees.[324][325][326] However, the initiatives were dismissed by Abkhaz separatists.[327][328]
On 17 April 2008, Georgian minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration Giorgi Baramidze said if Abkhazia allowed the return of refugees, then Georgia would sign the treaty on non-use of force.[329]
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza declared at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute: "Nobody wants such a development of the situation, when Georgian and Russian soldiers will face each other." He said that he did not have an "impression that Georgia is 100 percent right" and added: "Leaders of Georgia also need to work a lot more on peace proposals so that Abkhazians stop feeling fears."[330] Bryza also said that the existing peace formats for Georgia's breakaway regions no longer worked and "we need to rejuvenate [friends'] process." Georgian foreign minister Davit Bakradze said that NATO's promise to consider Georgia's possible accession in December 2008 contributed to Russia's aggressiveness: "this is the window of opportunity: to blow up Georgia in order not to make MAP in December possible."[331]
On 24 April 2008, Georgian president Saakashvili announced that Georgia would discuss with allies how to revise the peacekeeping format and increased involvement of other countries in the peace process because "the presence of the Russian [peacekeeping] contingent there [in Abkhazia and South Ossetia], as well as [Russia’s] recent actions, is a risk factor in the conflict zone."[332]
US Senators Joe Biden and Richard Lugar wrote that NATO's attempt to appease Russia by denying MAP to Georgia and Ukraine failed because in several days Moscow began to establish close ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in order to sabotage Saakashvili's peace plan on Abkhazia.[333]
On 30 April 2008, Member of the European Parliament Marie Anne Isler Béguin said that Russian peacekeepers were ineffective and the peacekeeping format should be changed.[334] The EU was asked by Georgia to consider the deployment of European peacekeepers to the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone.[335]
Georgian president Saakashvili and President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko issued a joint statement criticizing recent Russian actions. Ukraine announced willingness to participate in the peacekeeping operation in Georgia and approved Saakashvili's new peace plan on Abkhazia.[336]
Members of the Abkhaz parliament adopted a declaration to halt peace negotiations with the US, the UK, France and Germany because the "Group of Friends of the Secretary-General" was biased towards Georgia. In early May, Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba said that Abkhazia was disappointed in the West and approved the parliament's stance.[38]
On 1 May 2008, United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that increase in Russian peacekeeping contingent in Abkhazia was unnecessary. On 3 May 2008, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that "plans to pull Georgia into NATO" were to blame for Georgia's "inability to negotiate" on Abkhazia with Russia. He expressed hope that Georgia and "those capitals, which are pulling Georgia in the North Atlantic alliance" would not make "artificial problems in this very sensitive region."[337]
On 1 May 2008, Georgian Finance Minister Nika Gilauri announced that $150 million from the sale of Georgian-issued Eurobonds would be transferred to the Fund of Future Generations, which was intended to finance the development of the former breakaway regions after the restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity.[338]
Georgian and Abkhaz sides were talking about deescalation of tensions in early May. However, each side had different vision, with Georgians focusing on recent peace plan proposed by Saakashvili and the Abkhaz demanding the Georgian withdrawal from the Kodori Gorge and abolition of Georgian sanctions.[95]
On 10 May 2008, Matthew Bryza and the US ambassador to Georgia John F. Tefft met with the Abkhaz leadership. According to Bryza, Georgian drone overflights over Abkhazia were justified.[339]
On 12 May 2008, the Foreign Ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Sweden and Slovenia visited Georgia. Saakashvili spoke alongside the ministers and presented a Russian leaflet promoting the Sochi Olympics as a proof of Russia's design on Abkhazia. Saakashvili said that Russia's escalation was "a prelude to the act of annexation and act of occupation". Saakashvili said that when Georgia was occupied in 1921, Russia then attacked other European countries; Saakashvili expressed hope that "Europe will never again makes the similar mistake".[340]
On 12 May 2008, President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko and President of Lithuania Valdas Adamkus issued a joint statement supporting the territorial integrity of states, including Georgia.[341]
On 12 May 2008, Georgia's UN envoy Irakli Alasania visited Sukhumi to discuss peace plan with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh. The peace plan included proposals on the Georgian commitment not to use force and Abkhaz commitment to allow the return of Georgian refugees. Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba commented that Abkhazia was not completely against this plan. Bagapsh planned to visit Moscow on 19 May to get approval for the Abkhaz-Georgian peace plan.[342]
On 15 May 2008, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution underlining the right of return of all refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to Abkhazia in addition to their property rights.[343] Russia voted against the Georgian-sponsored resolution.[344] The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Georgian proposal was "a counterproductive step".[345]
On 16 May 2008, Georgian minister for reintegration Temur Iakobashvili arrived in Moscow and proposed to hold an international conference on the settlement of the conflicts. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that the US and the EU involvement indicated that Georgia did not want the real solution to the conflicts.[346]
On 23 May 2008, Temur Iakobashvili said after his visit to Moscow for the discussion of Saakashvili's peace plan that Georgia wanted to revise peacekeeping formats not because "we are expelling the Russians." He added that "Russia should be one of the parties to the settlement, and not have the exclusive right to peacekeeping." He said that additional Russian troops in Abkhazia were not peacekeepers, but "illegal armed formations." Sources in the administration of the Russian president said that Russian peacekeepers would not leave Abkhazia even if Georgia demanded their withdrawal; instead Russian troops would remain as allied forces per future military agreement with Abkhazia.[347]
In late May 2008, Vladimir Putin said that Saakashvili's peace plan regarding Abkhazia was acceptable.[348] Putin said the plan was "correct", but it needed an approval of Sukhumi. Putin stated that Russia had asked the Abkhaz authorities to allow the return of 55 thousand Georgian refugees.[349]
Summer 2008[edit]
On 5 June 2008, the European Parliament adopted a resolution which condemned the deployment of Russian forces to Abkhazia and endorsed Georgia's territorial integrity. The resolution called on Russia to pull out those additional forces and stated that the peacekeeping structure should be changed because Russia was no longer an unbiased player. A "deeper European involvement in these frozen conflicts in order to move the peace processes forward" was advised.[350] Russian officials did not comment on the resolution.[351]
On 7 June 2008, Abkhaz president Sergei Bagapsh said after meeting with EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Javier Solana that Abkhazia would never consider the replacement of the Russian peacekeepers because "there is no alternative" and Abkhazia would insist on the continued presence of the Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia. Solana said that Russia had a significant role and there would be no conflict resolution without Russia. A two-day visit to Abkhazia by fifteen EU ambassadors was finished that day.[352] Giorgi Baramidze, the Georgian deputy prime minister and minister on European and Euro-Atlantic integration, said: "Georgia is ready to sign a ceasefire agreement with Abkhazia if it is guaranteed by the European Union." Baramidze said that the loss of Gagra, Sukhumi and most of Abkhazia for Georgia was caused by absence of an effective guarantor of earlier agreements. He added, "We want to carry out our peace plan."[352]
Pro-Russian authorities of South Ossetia announced to have expelled 12 European ambassadors from South Ossetia due to their meeting with pro-Georgian government of South Ossetia on June 22.[353]
On 23 June 2008, Georgian deputy foreign minister Grigol Vashadze visited Moscow in order to organize a meeting between Georgian and Russian presidents. The Speaker of the Georgian Parliament Davit Bakradze said that Georgian president would discuss the situation in Abkhazia. Bakradze hoped that the situation would improve.[354] Vashadze met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin and talked about the situation in Abkhazia.[355] On 27 June 2008, Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that Georgia had proposed Russia to divide Abkhazia into Georgian and Russian spheres of influence. Georgian refugees would return to Gali and Ochamchira District and the line of contact would be moved from Enguri river to Kodori river in the north. Russia would win by Georgia's cancelation of bid for the NATO membership. When Abkhazia's leader Sergei Bagapsh arrived in Moscow on June 26, he also met with Grigory Karasin to discuss this plan.[356] Abkhaz authorities rejected the proposal on Abkhazia's division. Abkhaz official Ruslan Kishmaria suggested that Abkhazia might demand the return of Abkhazia's historical medieval capital Kutaisi.[357] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denied that Russia was considering the plan to divide Abkhazia. However, an anonymous source in the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed the existence of such plan. Later, the Ministry called the report as "deliberate leak of information."[358][359] The Georgian Foreign Ministry denied the report on proposed spheres of influence in Abkhazia.[360]
On 25 June 2008, Saakashvili met with high-ranking German officials in Berlin to discuss a new peace plan.[361] Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel met with Saakashvili. She said that Georgia would become a member of the NATO, but NATO membership depended on the settlement of the conflict in Abkhazia. She said that "the Russian peacekeeping mission should continue until new variants can be found in talks" and Germany would also be involved in the peace process.[362] Saakashvili was planning to visit a summit of the leaders of the member parties of the International Democrat Union in Paris.[363]
Patricia Flor, German ambassador to Georgia, was planning to meet with Sergei Bagapsh and other high-ranking officials in Sukhumi on June 27.[364]
On 28 June 2008, the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE supported Georgia's territorial integrity, with OSCE PA President Göran Lennmarker saying: "We want to find a compromise and a peaceful resolution of this issue."[365] On 30 June, American representative said that the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly urged Russia to respect Georgia's sovereignty by refraining from relations with the governments of the separatist territories.[366]
On 30 June 2008, U.N. Secretary-General’s Group of Friends discussed the Abkhaz conflict in Berlin.[367] A three-part peace plan was announced by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, according to which a trust-building and the repatriation of around 250,000 refugees to Abkhazia would be followed first by the rebuilding of the infrastructure and then by a settlement of the conflict. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, along with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, endorsed the German plan. Georgian president Saakashvili also accepted the plan.[368]
On 7 July 2008, the United States Department of State called on the central Georgian government and the Abkhaz de facto authorities to resume negotiations. The Department of State also called on Russia to stop "provocative" actions and proposed the deployment of International Police Force to Abkhazia.[369] However, Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh denied the possibility of removal of the Russian peacekeepers. The State Department spokesman also said that Condoleezza Rice would visit Georgia to support a peaceful settlement to the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts.[370][371]
The visit of OSCE ambassadors and the Danish foreign minister to Georgia began on 7 July, which would last until 9 July and separatists would also be visited.[372]
On 8 July 2008, David Bakradze, chairman of Georgia's parliament, said that he raised the issue of changing the peacekeeping format in Abkhazia with UN envoy Bertrand Ramcharan. He added that if the peacekeeping format did not change, then Georgia would make a unilateral decision regarding the Russian peacekeepers.[373] Ramcharan arrived in Abkhazia on 11 July to negotiate resumption of Abkhaz-Georgian talks.[374]
On 9 July 2008, European diplomats stated 2 criteria for the European Union to become involved in the peacekeeping operation in Abkhazia. These criteria were: security for the foreign personnel and mutual consent from the conflict sides.[375]
On 11 July 2008, the Parliament of Georgia adopted a resolution urging the international community to back Georgian peace proposals. The resolution said, "Otherwise, the Georgian side will be forced to undertake appropriate legal measures in the nearest future for the de-legitimization and for the prompt withdrawal of the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the conflict zones." The Western officials earlier had told Georgian authorities to pause the demand for the removal of the Russian peacekeepers.[376]
On 14 July 2008, Sergei Bagapsh met with special envoy of the German Foreign Ministry for Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Hans-Dieter Lucas. Peace plan was discussed.[377] On the same day EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby met with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh in Sukhumi. Bagapsh said that he studied a draft plan on the settlement of the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict that was worked out by the U.N. Secretary-General’s Group of Friends, but he suggested that it was unacceptable for Abkhazia in its current form. Bagapsh stressed that the main condition for resuming the dialogue with Georgia was "the withdrawal of all armed units from the Kodori gorge and the signing of an agreement on non-use of force". He also said that he was "not going to discuss Abkhazia’s status with anyone" because Abkhazia was "an independent, democratic state." Peter Semneby also met with Prime Minister of Abkhazia Alexander Ankvab and foreign minister Sergei Shamba.[378] Sergei Shamba said that "more preparation" was required.[379]
On 14 July, the U.S. Department of State said in a statement it was "deeply troubled" by Russia’s acknowledgement that Russian military plane flew over South Ossetia because "Such actions raise questions about Russia's role as peacekeeper and facilitator of the negotiations and threaten stability throughout the entire region."[380] That day, a special session was held by the OSCE Permanent Council. The need for the resumption of talks regarding peace between Georgian and South Ossetian authorities was hightlighted.[381] On 15 July 2008, NATO said it was concerned by Russian military flights. Russia's peacekeeping and mediating duty was questioned.[225]
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier met with Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon. Then Steinmeier had a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Russia wanted both Georgia and Abkhazia "to accept obligations not to use force," and the withdrawal of the Georgian forces from the Kodori Gorge.[382]
Georgian president Saakashvili told The Times, "situation is precarious and the things they [Russia] are doing are outrageous. Unfortunately, they are not opposed by the Europeans and other players." When asked about the possibility of war, Saakashvili responded: "The point is that every day we are waking up with some surprises and when sometimes I think it can’t get any worse, then it does get worse."[383] Ronald Asmus wrote that Russia was trying "to provoke Tbilisi into actions that could lead to further Russian military intervention." He also wrote, "In the short term, we need to prevent a conflict from starting this summer." Asmus suggested that Russia would then focus on Crimea.[384]
On 16 July 2008, Georgian National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia said that "polishing" of the new German plan was still needed despite "positive elements" being present there. Lomaia also said that the return of IDPs could not start until the Russian peacekeeping force was pulled out.[385] David Bakradze said that if a German plan for resolving the conflict did not get large support, Georgia would be forced to "unilaterally bring an influence to bear on the deployment of armed forces in Abkhazia."[386]
Russian human rights activists began collecting signatures against the escalation of the Russian-Georgian tensions. They were of the opinion that the conflict was looming to transform into war between the two countries.[387]
On 17 July 2008, the Georgian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that France supported the active involvement of the EU in the process of peaceful settlement of the conflicts in Georgia.[388]
On 17 July 2008, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the repatriation of refugees to Abkhazia was "entirely unrealistic at this stage", adding "the situation first needs to be improved and trust restored."[389][390] German Foreign Minister Steinmeier met with his Georgian counterpart Eka Tkeshelashvili in Tbilisi.[391] Steinmeier said in Tbilisi that due to recent multiple incidents, the international community had "growing anxiety" and there were no more "frozen conflicts."[392] Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba said that Georgia first had to withdraw its troops from Kodori Gorge before Abkhazia would begin negotiations.[393] On the evening of the same day, Saakashvili said at a briefing that there were no plans in Tbilisi to use force to restore control over Abkhazia.[394] Saakashvili called Lavrov's statement on the refugees "shameful" and said that blocking the return of refugees would be "inhumane and barbaric decision."[395] Steinmeier met with Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili in Batumi.[394] Saakashvili said at a joint briefing that the conflicts of the 20th century must be solved with "modern European methods". Steinmeier said that Germany viewed Abkhazia to be Georgia's inalienable part.[396] Steinmeier said that he wanted "a peaceful resolution based on the territorial integrity of Georgia". Sources from the German delegation called the talks with Saakashvili "difficult".[397] The Georgian Foreign Ministry stated on 18 July that Russia was seeking to legalize the results of the Russian-sponsored ethnic cleansing.[398]
On 18 July, Steinmeier met with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh in Gali.[399] After his meeting with Steinmeier, Bagapsh said that Abkhazia still would not consider German peace proposal and he intended to present his own plan.[394] Chairman of Georgian Parliament Davit Bakradze called the Abkhaz refusal "just a political game" and said that the Russian position would be "decisive".[400] On the same day, Frank-Walter Steinmeier met with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. Lavrov suggested an international "road map" on Abkhazia, however, he resisted the German plan since Georgian refugees would return to Abkhazia at the beginning of conflict resolution. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also received Steinmeier.[401] Medvedev insisted that Georgia must withdraw its forces from the Kodori Gorge otherwise there would be no peace between Georgia and Abkhazia.[402] According to the source of the Russian newspaper Kommersant, Lavrov admitted to Steinmeier that the Georgian withdrawal from the Kodori Gorge was less likely in the near future.[403] American diplomat Matthew Bryza said that Russian and Abkhaz rejection of the German peace plan was alarming.[404]
On 21 July 2008, Russian Newsweek published an article where a source with close links with the Kremlin was quoted as saying that the territorial problems of Georgia could be settled if pro-Russian government came to power in Georgia. Russia viewed the tensions with Georgia as a part of Russia-America confrontation. Sources told Newsweek that the Russian overflight over South Ossetia in early July was sanctioned by Russian president Dmitry Medvedev after consultation with Vladimir Putin. There were indications that Georgia would receive the status of NATO associate member in December 2008, and Russia understood that it was forced to settle the Georgian problem quickly. The Russian Foreign Ministry source said that Irakli Alasania negotiated the meeting between Georgian and Abkhaz presidents in May 2008; however, the interested parties organized the blasts in Abkhazia, which caused this meeting to be cancelled.[405]
On 21 July 2008, REGNUM News Agency reported that the western mediators were proposing to replace Georgian troops in the Kodori gorge with international police force. This force would exclude Russia.[406] Matthew Bryza said that currently there was no need to deploy international force in Abkhazia and the United States was working to establish direct dialogue between Georgian and Abkhaz sides.[407] Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba said that the replacement of Georgian troops with international force was his initiative.[408]
By 22 July 2008, Georgian intelligence had given the West some proof of Russian military build-up in Abkhazia. The Georgian government stated on 22 July that "the German plan in its present form does not address the proximate cause of the recent, dangerous escalation in the conflict zones: the role and actions of Russia, a central player in degrading security in Georgia." Carl Bildt, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that Russia's 16 April decision was the culmination of annexation of Abkhazia.[409] On 23 July, Daniel Fried, Assistant Secretary of State, stressed that Georgia’s territorial integrity and the return of refugees to Abkhazia were the key principles, and promised that the removal of Russian peacekeepers would be discussed.[409][410] Russian foreign minister Lavrov told Condoleezza Rice that the return of the refugees to Abkhazia must be postponed to the later phase of the peace settlement. On 24 July, analyst Vladimir Socor criticized the German plan and stated that Germany was more sympathetic towards Russia's position on Georgia's territorial integrity.[409]
On 23 July 2008, the meeting of the EU foreign ministers, after hearing German Foreign Minister Steinmeier's report on Abkhazia, recognized that Russia was a party to the conflict in Georgia.[411]
On 24 July 2008, Matthew Bryza said that Russia "has taken steps that are deeply provocative and have led to some people in Georgia calculating that their only way forward is through escalation, and that is a path that cannot succeed."[412] Bryza arrived in Georgia on July 25 and was planning to visit Sukhumi together with Patricia Flor, German Ambassador to Georgia.[413]
On 25 July 2008, the South Ossetian separatists rejected proposal by the OSCE chairman-in-office Alexander Stubb to hold Georgia-South Ossetia meeting in Helsinki. The separatists had previously refused to participate in talks in Brussels arranged by the EU on 22 July.[414] According to Kommersant, the South Ossetian decision to refuse participation in Brussels talks was coordinated with Moscow.[415]
On 25 July, the Abkhaz separatists met with Matthew Bryza. Bryza declared in Sukhumi that Russia was "more or less" in favor of the German plan approved by the Group of the Friends of the UN Secretary General.[416] Lack of progress in peace settlement alarmed Bryza. Abkhaz officials suggested that the German project was irrelevant to Abkhazia regardless of which country supported it.[417] Bryza tried to persuade the Abkhaz authorities to unanimously agree to talks in Berlin the following week, but Abkhaz officials refused.[418] Later that day, Abkhaz president Sergei Bagapsh hinted that the Abkhaz could meet with the Group of Friends in Berlin. Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba also said that the Abkhaz "in principle" did not oppose talks in Berlin. However, according to Shamba, Abkhazia would not resume direct negotiations with Georgia's central government.[419] Russian ambassador to UN Vitaly Churkin said that Russia objected to urgent meeting of the UN Secretary General's Group of Friends on Georgia.[420] According to the Jamestown Foundation, the Western involvement "may help steer the process away from the Russian-controlled formats. This is why Moscow encouraged Sukhumi to thwart the German-proposed consultations."[421] Russian editorial opined that the Western initiatives contradicted Russia's interests and the placement of American bases in Abkhazia could lead to the loss of the North Caucasus for Russia.[422][423]
On 26 July, Matthew Bryza, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, left Sukhumi and arrived in Tbilisi. He said that Georgian and Abkhaz separatist officials must start direct unconditional talks.[424] Georgian Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia said after meeting with Bryza that the United States proposed a new peace plan combining elements from Saakashvili, Steinmeier and Rice plans.[425][426] Bryza denied media reports that he had demanded the Georgian withdrawal from the Kodori Gorge.[427]
On 28 July 2008, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed his concern over the escalation in Abkhazia, which could have "unpredictable consequences for a fragile peace process", and increasing hostility between Russia and Georgia.[428]
On 29 July 2008, Bagapsh said that Abkhazia would never agree to the deployment of the international police force to Abkhazia.[429]
On 30 July 2008, a German Foreign Ministry spokesman said that efforts were made by Germany to organize a meeting between the Georgian and Abkhaz officials. Abkhaz separatists had earlier rejected to attend talks in Berlin scheduled on July 30–31.[430]
On 31 July 2008, Abkhaz president Sergei Bagapsh said there would be a separate meeting between Abkhazia and the Group of UN Secretary General's Friends on Georgia (the U.K., Germany, Russia, U.S. and France). Bagapsh said that Georgia would hold a separate meeting with the Group. Bagapsh also said, "The meeting was initially planned for July 28–29. However, this didn't suit us. We have settled on August 15–20 for the meeting."[431]