2011 South Sudanese independence referendum
A referendum took place in Southern Sudan from 9 to 15 January 2011,[1] on whether the region should remain a part of Sudan or become independent.[2][3][4] The referendum was one of the consequences of the 2005 Naivasha Agreement between the Khartoum central government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M).
A simultaneous referendum was supposed to be held in Abyei on whether to become part of South Sudan but it was postponed due to conflict over demarcation and residency rights.[5]
On 7 February 2011, the referendum commission published the final results, with a landslide majority of 98.83% voting in favour of independence.[6] While the ballots were suspended in 10 of the 79 counties for exceeding 100% of the voter turnout, the number of votes was still well over the requirement of 60% turnout, and the majority vote for secession is not in question.
The predetermined date for the creation of an independent state was 9 July 2011.[7]
Background[edit]
The prerequisites for the referendum included a census, which was used to define how wealth and political power will be apportioned between regions. The census was the basis of a voter registration process, which was also used for the national elections in 2010, which in turn set the stage for the referendum. The census was delayed three times. Problems included disagreements between the north and south over what they are obliged to do by the Naivasha Agreement, funding difficulties and an enormous logistical challenge. In the south, unmapped minefields from the war continue to make movement difficult, while up to 5,000,000 Sudanese are nomadic. Up to 2,000,000 internally displaced persons from the south remain in camps around Khartoum, in the centre of the country, whilst refugees remain in Uganda and Kenya. A further complication results from the conflict in Darfur to the west, where civilians who have fled attacks refuse to take part in census out of fear that the government would use the results against them. Darfuri rebel groups are unanimous in their denunciation of the planned census, while the Justice and Equality Movement group has threatened to attack any census-taker.[8]
There were disagreements between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the SPLA/M about what proportion of voters will have to be in favour of independence (the NCP wanted at least 75% support required), whether Southern Sudanese living in the north should be allowed to vote, and the post-referendum separation process (including the division of the national debt).[9] Modest progress was made in early September 2010, but disagreements on fundamental points remain.[10]
It is envisaged that "popular consultations" in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, without a clear reference to referendums and/or independence, would raise concerns about the future of these regions.[11][12]
According to the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (or CPA),[13] in October 2009, the central government of Sudan and the South Sudanese government agreed that turnout would have to be at least 60% of 3,800,000 voters would be necessary to validate. In this case, a simple majority vote in favour of independence would result in secession for South Sudan;[14][15] should the turnout be insufficient in the first referendum, a second one will be held within sixty days.[16]
Polls[edit]
When questioned in a poll prior to the official referendum, 97% of South Sudanese people said that they would be voting for independence.[56]
An early poll of 1,400 individuals was carried out by a coalition of civil society organisations in Southern Sudan prior to the January referendum, indicating that 97% of voters would likely vote for secession. According to John Andruga, chairman of the coalition, 100% of respondents in the states of Unity and Eastern Equatoria would vote for secession. A similar survey carried out one year prior by the US-based National Democratic Institute had indicated that 90% of voters would vote for secession.[57]
External precedents[edit]
Questions were asked if a positive vote on the referendum would set a precedent for other secessionist movements on the African continent. An Al Jazeera English analysis said a few reasons for seeking secession were: a lack of expertise by post-colonial political elites in governing their respective countries and managing natural resources; the impact of the Cold War where many African countries took sides, rendering sovereignty ineffective; tribal prejudices and preferential service that dominate African politics; failure of governments to provide basic freedoms such as guaranteeing full citizenship for all.
Citing these examples, it asked where such a precedent for secession could lead: East Sudan and Darfur, Nigeria or South Africa. As two important members of the African Union the latter two could be reluctant to support a new independent southern Sudan as a recognition thereof could "send a very clear message to these groups in their struggle for autonomy."[79]
Registration[edit]
Registration for the vote started on 15 November with Salva Kiir's appeal for registering en masse. Many of those who fled South Sudan during the civil war returned in the months and weeks leading up to the referendum, with some southern politicians trying to have them play a role in swinging the vote towards independence.[90][91] Almost four million citizens registered before the deadline on 5 December; as the stream of returnees continued unabated, however, many arrived too late to register for the referendum.[92][93]
Analysis[edit]
The precedence of the vote was seen as important because most African states' borders were decided during colonial times which resulted in a heterogeneous mix of religions, ethnicities, and cultures. The Organisation of African Unity, however, refrained from redrawing boundaries for the fear that wars of secession could be sparked.[111]