The campaign consisted of a three-pronged attack, with the two main assaults spearheaded by Ahrar ash-Sham, al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra and other Islamist factions under the banner of the Army of Conquest, and the remaining attack force including collaboration with Free Syrian Army brigades.[33][58] The commander of the FSA 13th Division stated that coordinating with other groups such as al-Nusra Front did not mean they were aligned with them.[2] Within days, the rebels captured the city of Jisr al-Shughur and later on an Army base.[55] The success of the campaign was attributed to better coordination between the Syrian opposition's backers.[59][60] Still, the operation resulted in a high attrition rate for both sides.[55]
Aftermath – Syrian Army retreat from the Jisr al-Shugur area[edit]
On 28 July, rebels launched an assault to capture the remaining areas surrounding Jisr al-Shugur. Two hours later, rebels had captured the strategic hills of Tal Khattab, Tal 'Awar and Tal Hamka; along with the towns of Frikka, Mushayrafah, Salat Al-Zuhour and Zayzoun. The Army retreated to the south in order to reinforce its positions at Tall Wassit and Tall Sheikh Elyas.[214] The Army responded with 160 airstrikes and dozens of shells and missiles. According to the SOHR, about 90 government fighters were killed or wounded during the assault, while 37 rebels (15 non-Syrian; including a Jordanian leader) were killed.[215]
However, three days later, the Syrian Army recaptured Ziyadia and Zezoun, including its power station. In addition, they captured the towns of Khirbat al-Naqus and Mansoura and its surrounding areas. The advances came after the Air Force had conducted more than 270 air-strikes on rebel positions over four days. The fighting had left 39 combatants dead,[216] including 20 soldiers and 19 rebels.[217]
Strategic analysis[edit]
The Jisr al-Shughur offensive has been described as one of the "largest and most ambitious operations of the Syrian civil war" consisting of some 40 opposition groups, with the main goal being to outflank and interdict Col. Suheil Al Hassan's Tiger forces, who were sent to attempt to push back against the 2015 Idlib offensive, which followed the opposition victory at the Second Battle of Idlib.[33] According to Stratfor, the potential cutting off by opposition forces of the Idlib salient, where the 11th Armor Division and the Tiger Forces found themselves isolated, would perhaps result in "an even bigger catastrophe" for the Syrian Arab Army.[218] The deployment of elite government forces such as the Tiger Forces and the Desert Falcons to Idlib from other fronts was viewed by Stratfor as a mistake that left the government highly vulnerable in the eastern part of Homs province.[219]
Opposition forces were widely reported to be planning to move on the government's stronghold of Latakia, following the capture of Jisr al-Shughur.[220][221][222][223][224] The reopening of the Latakia front was a focus, at the time, of Saudi Arabian policy to unite opposition factions.[225] Analyst Charles Lister of the Brookings Doha Centre stated that "For the opposition as a whole, it would open up the route into Latakia from Idlib and Hama, which could significantly enhance any future offensive on Latakia ... That would be very dangerous for the regime", adding that the seizing of Jisr al-Shughur should be seen as part of a bigger strategy.[226] An Ahrar al-Sham spokesperson stated: "Jisr al-Shughour is more important than Idlib itself, it is very close to the coastal area which is a regime area, the coast now is within our fire reach".[227] As rebels advanced in early June along the Idlib–Latakia highway, fighting intensified in the Latakia District near the Jabal al Akrad mountain range, that overlooks Alawite villages close to Qardaha, the ancestral home of the Assad family.[228]
After recent rebel victories against the government, some people began to fear a scenario where hardline rebels would swarm Damascus in the near future, despite government reassurances.[229] AL RAI Chief International Correspondent, Elijah J. Magnier, reported that Syria was heading towards partition after recent events in Idlib.[230] Jane's Information Group stated that the offensive threatened to show president Bashar al-Assad as "incapable even of protecting the coastal mountain areas where the Alawites (his core support base) are concentrated" and speculated Iran would not see him as the primary keeper of their interests in Syria.[231]
In early June, a Syrian security source reported that thousands of Iranian and Iraqi fighters were being assembled; "[t]he goal is to reach 10,000 men to support the Syrian army and pro-government militias, firstly in Damascus, and then to retake Jisr al-Shughur because it is key to the Mediterranean coast and the Hama region". This came days after Iranian Quds force general Qasem Soleimani pledged that "In the coming days the world will be surprised by what we are preparing, in cooperation with Syrian military leaders",[232] yet Soleimani was reported to be infuriated that his remarks were leaked by a Syrian official in an attempt to boost morale.[233] The SOHR reported the arrival of 6,000 fighters from Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan.[47]
- On 28 April 2015, Syria accused Turkey of providing military and logistic support to al-Nusra in their attack on Idlib,[234] with Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem describing the situation in Idlib as having "Zionist-American sponsorship".[235]
