Battle of Idlib (2015)
The Battle of Idlib ("Operation to Free Idlib") was a military operation in the Idlib Governorate, during the Syrian Civil War, conducted by rebels against Syrian government forces defending Idlib city.[21]
Analysis[edit]
Idlib became the second provincial capital to fall to rebel forces, after Raqqa which was captured by the rebels in March 2013, but were subsequently routed from it by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.[5] Rebels also captured the town of Quneitra in August 2014, which is nominally the capital of the Quneitra province, but had been largely destroyed and abandoned since the Six-Day War with Israel in 1967.[62]
According to some, it was a major political and strategic defeat for the Syrian government.[63][64][65][66] Stratfor described the battle as a "pivotal victory" for opposition forces,[62] while The Long War Journal called it "the most significant blow" to the government in months.[67] Aron Lund of Syria Comment commented the defeat of government defenses in Idlib had "punched a gaping hole in the government’s narrative of approaching victory and boosted the opposition politically as well as militarily, spelling trouble for Bashar al-Assad",[68] while Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, speculated the fall of Idlib would be a big shock to the government and its supporters.[69] According to others, Idlib had little or limited strategic value and was more of a morale boost to opposition forces.[68][70]
Now that the city was captured, rebels would potentially focus on other objectives, such as the Abu Duhour air base, Ariha, Hama,[68] Nubl, Zahra, military supply routes to Aleppo, and potentially striking the government heartland of Latakia.[63] The twin Shia towns of Fouaa and Kefray, now besieged, would face destruction and perhaps a sectarian massacre if they did not agree to a peace settlement with rebel forces, according to a post from Syria Comment, run by Joshua Landis.[68] This was countered by Lina Khatib of the Carnegie Endowment, who stated in a recent report on the al-Nusra Front in northern Syria that “The vast majority of those who support al-Nusra are not driven by ideology but by anti-Assad sentiment”.[71] However, others were of the opinion that a potential rebel advance on other fronts as a result of this battle would not happen if government forces launched a counterattack to retake the city. In addition, it was viewed that the fall of Idlib would complicate Turkish efforts to win support for the enforcement of a no-fly zone over northern Syria.[70]
Taking into account the role of al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's Syria/Lebanon branch, the possibility of Idlib being the effective capital of al-Nusra-controlled territories was raised. An Ahrar al-Sham member, referring to this possibility, stated “I think al-Nusra is too smart to try that".[71] Abu Mohammad al-Julani stated that al-Nusra Front does not "want to monopolise rule over Idlib city", calling for power sharing and adding that authority "does not come from scaring the people, but in protecting them, defeating their oppressor and defending the weak".[72] Still, by May 2016, al-Nusra made unilateral attempts to expand its control over both Idlib and other nearby rebel-held towns, with the aim of laying the groundwork for al Qaeda’s first sovereign state (or Emirate) as Charles Lister described it.[73]