2019 Bougainvillean independence referendum
A non-binding independence referendum was held in Bougainville,[1] an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, between 23 November and 7 December 2019. The referendum question was a choice between greater autonomy within Papua New Guinea and full independence; voters voted overwhelmingly (98.31%) for independence.
"Republic of Bougainville" redirects here. For the former unrecognised state, see Republic of the North Solomons.
The referendum was a result of a 2001 agreement between the government of Papua New Guinea and the Autonomous Bougainville Government that ended a civil war fought from 1988 to 1998. The vote is non-binding and the government of Papua New Guinea has the final authority of decision on the political status of Bougainville. Observers have said that the clear result makes it difficult for Papua New Guinea to ignore or delay the result, but that independence could take years to achieve.
In July 2021, an agreement was reached between the governments of Papua New Guinea and Bougainville, in which Bougainville will gain independence by 2027[2] if it is ratified by Papua New Guinea's parliament.[3]
Aftermath[edit]
Following the announcements of the result, John Momis, President of the Autonomous Region of Bougainville, said, "at least psychologically, we feel liberated." Papua New Guinea's Minister for Bougainville Affairs Puka Temu said, "the outcome is a credible one," but also stated that Papua New Guinea should have time to absorb the result.[8] As the referendum was non-binding, independence will need to be negotiated between leaders from Bougainville and Papua New Guinea. The final decision on Bougainville's status depends on the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea. Rod McGuirk of Time noted that "the process of becoming a separate nation could take years to achieve."[28]
Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape acknowledged the referendum results and stated that he would only commit his government to develop "a road map that leads to a lasting peace settlement" in consultation with Bougainville authorities. Papuan New Guinean officials were concerned that Bougainvillean independence would set a precedent for copycat secession movements in other provinces such as East New Britain, New Ireland, and Enga.[29]
Jonathan Pryke, director of the Pacific Islands program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, stated that the referendum's results were disadvantageous for Papua New Guinea, adding that, "[i]f there were to be a smaller majority, say 55 or 65 percent, the PNG government could have found a way to justify really stretching this out and having a period of negotiation that could last years or decades. Now with such a phenomenal majority, it’s much harder for them to do that."[30]
Damien Cave of The New York Times reported that the referendum would serve as an inspiration for the West Papua independence movement in Indonesia and for voters in the 2020 New Caledonian referendum for independence from France. Cave noted that, as with other Pacific countries, Bougainville will likely make pleas to Australia and New Zealand for assistance in developing its institutions while China and potentially the United States may offer diplomatic and economic partnerships once independence is achieved.[30] China is seeking to incorporate an independent Bougainville into its Belt and Road Initiative.[29]
Negotiations[edit]
Negotiations on the outcome of the referendum began on 17 May 2021.[31] Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama, who took over from Momis in 2020, stated his wish to see Bougainville become independent by June 2025.[32] Marape for his part cautioned against setting a specific timetable.[33] While Marape and his government have recognized the results of the referendum, he has expressed reluctance at granting Bougainville independence for fear it will potentially result in the breakup of the country. Toroama warned that anything short of independence was not an option for Bougainville.[33]
In the meantime, Toroama launched the Independence Ready Mission to prepare the region for independence. He expressed hope of obtaining self-government by 2022, a prelude to full sovereignty.[34][35] On 7 July 2021, Toroama and Marape announced that the region will become independent by 2027.[36][2] However, the agreement requires ratification from Papua New Guinea's parliament before the region is granted independence.[3] In early December 2021, Toroama appealed for the process to advance, expressing dissatisfaction over the pace of negotiations.[37] This led to a joint statement by Marape and Toroama on giving Bougainville independence between 2025 and 2027 via a framework known as the Era Kone Covenant that will detail the constitutional process, seek approval from both Papua New Guinea and Bougainville's cabinets by 31 January 2022, and begin two months later if accepted.[38] On 25 February 2022 a commission was sworn in to draft a constitution for Bougainville.[39] In April 2022, the Autonomous Bougainville Government and the Government of Papua New Guinea finalised the Era Kone Covenant on the mechanisms by which the Parliament of Papua New Guinea will ratify the referendum results. Under the terms of the agreement, the ratification process should begin in 2023 with independence occurring no earlier than 2025 and no later than 2027.[40][41] The Papua New Guinean parliament is to take up the issue in the 2023 session[42] and the parliamentary committee on Bougainville affairs, which was suspended for the referendum, will resume.[43]
In April 2024, Papua New Guinea prime minister James Marape stated that his government is preparing to bring forward instruments to implement the referendum results in the Parliament of Papua New Guinea.[44]