2019 Conservative Party leadership election
The 2019 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when Theresa May announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom once a successor had been elected. Nominations opened on 10 June; 10 candidates were nominated. The first ballot of members of Parliament (MPs) took place on 13 June, with exhaustive ballots of MPs also taking place on 18, 19 and 20 June, reducing the candidates to two. The general membership of the party elected the leader by postal ballot; the result was announced on 23 July, with Boris Johnson being elected with almost twice as many votes as his opponent Jeremy Hunt.
87.4% (members' vote)
Speculation about a leadership election first arose following the party's performance at the 2017 snap general election. May had called it in hope of increasing her parliamentary majority for Brexit negotiations. However, the Conservatives lost their overall majority in the House of Commons. Subsequent speculation arose from the difficulties May had in obtaining a Brexit deal acceptable to the Conservative Party. These increased in November 2018, with members of the Eurosceptic European Research Group pushing for a vote of no confidence in May; the forty-eight letter threshold to force a confidence vote was met in December 2018; however, May won the vote and remained in office. In early 2019, Parliament repeatedly voted against May's proposed deal, leading to her resignation.
The first members' vote leadership election of the Conservative Party was held in 2001, but since then the party had been in opposition during all leadership elections except in 2016, which concluded with Andrea Leadsom withdrawing before the members' vote. Johnson became the first Conservative Party leader elected by members to immediately assume the role of prime minister.
Election procedure[edit]
The principles of the procedure for selecting the leader of the Conservative Party are set in the party's constitution, while the detailed rules are agreed by the 1922 Committee executive in consultation with the Conservative Party Board.[66] Nominations for the leadership are invited by the chairman of the 1922 Committee, who acts as returning officer. When nominations close, a list of valid nominations is published. If there is only one valid nomination, that person is elected. If two valid nominations are received, both names go forward to the party membership, whose numbers equate to about 0.35% of the UK electorate. Party members can vote even if they live abroad and are not UK citizens;[67]
If more than two nominations are received, a ballot is held within the Parliamentary party. An exhaustive ballot system is used to select two candidates to go forward to the party membership. The 1922 Committee executive considered changing the rules such that four candidates would go to the ballot of the party membership;[68] they also recommended increasing the number of MP nominations required to eight. On 4 June a rule change was accepted by the party board, whereby candidates would require the support of eight MPs to be nominated, then the support of at least 5% of the Parliamentary Conservative Party in the first ballot, and 10% in the second ballot in order to proceed further.[69] In 2019, this equated to requiring the support of 17 MPs in the first ballot and 33 in the second.[70][69] If all candidates met the threshold then the candidate with fewest votes would be eliminated. If three or more candidates remained after the second ballot, further ballots would be held, eliminating the candidate with the fewest votes and repeating this process until two candidates remained.[70]
Nominations opened on 7 June and closed on 10 June. The first ballot was held on 13 June, with subsequent ballots being held on 18, 19 and 20 June. The first membership hustings was scheduled for 22 June and the ballot of the membership was to take place over the following month, with the winner announced on 23 July.[71]
Campaign[edit]
Speculation[edit]
A large number of candidates attracted attention or were the subject of speculation over an extended period before the election was called. In 2017, the main contenders were initially seen to be Philip Hammond, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Amber Rudd.[72] By early August 2017, Jacob Rees-Mogg was receiving considerable attention and he had risen to second in the betting markets after Davis.[73] There was considerable speculation that the party's leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, could attempt to become the next leader, despite being ineligible as she was not an MP at Westminster.[74][75] In September 2018, she said that she did not want the job and would focus on politics in Scotland.[76]
Following renewed speculation about May's leadership after Johnson and Davis resigned from the Cabinet in summer 2018, press interest focused on Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt.[75][77][78] Dominic Raab became Brexit Secretary after Davis. In November 2018, following his resignation from the role over a proposed deal on the UK's departure from the European Union, Raab became the bookmakers' favourite to be new leader, followed by Javid or Johnson.[79][80] Raab opposed holding a leadership election, but did not rule out his candidacy.[81] Esther McVey, who resigned her position as work and pensions secretary on the same day, indicated that she would stand as a candidate if she had support.[81]
By December 2018, Johnson, Javid and Rudd were all reported to be contemplating running if May were voted out.[43] In November and December, other potential candidates included Gove, Hunt, Raab, Davis and Penny Mordaunt.[82][83] Bookmakers had Johnson as most likely to succeed May on the morning of 12 December confidence vote.[84]
Candidates declare[edit]
On 2 May 2019, Rory Stewart, the international development secretary, announced his candidacy for the leadership. He stated that he would "bring the country together" as prime minister.[85] Following a poor result for the party in the 2019 local elections on 2 May 2019, Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove and Matt Hancock gave speeches and interviews that the journalist Tim Shipman described as a "beauty contest between those jostling to succeed Theresa May".[58] On 4 May 2019, David Davis announced he would not seek the party leadership, and would instead support Raab if he chose to run.[86] On 8 May 2019, Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons, stated she was "seriously considering" a second bid for the party leadership.[87] On 9 May 2019, McVey announced she would be standing for the leadership. She stated that she had "enough support" from fellow MPs to "go forward" once May stepped down as prime minister.[88]
On 24 May, the day May resigned, Johnson told an economic conference in Switzerland that "we will leave the EU on October 31, deal or no deal".[89] Stewart ruled out serving in a cabinet under Johnson over Johnson's support for a no-deal Brexit, which he believed was "undeliverable, unnecessary and is going to damage our country and economy".[90] On the same day, Jeremy Hunt announced his candidacy for the leadership at a festival in his constituency.[91] Matt Hancock,[92] Dominic Raab,[93] and Andrea Leadsom announced their candidacies the following day, 25 May;[94] Michael Gove declared his own shortly afterwards, on 26 May,[95] Sajid Javid and Kit Malthouse following the next day.[96]
On 28 May, Gove promised to remove the charge for UK citizenship applications from EU nationals if elected.[97] Hunt condemned a no-deal Brexit as "suicide", but McVey said it would be "political suicide" to not leave at the earliest opportunity.[98] Both BBC News and Sky News invited candidates to debates.[99] On 29 May, James Cleverly announced his candidacy.[100] Hunt and Stewart both admitted during campaigning that they had taken illegal drugs in the past when abroad. The former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith warned on 30 May that there were too many candidates running and urged the 1922 committee to "accelerate the process".[101] That same day, Mark Harper announced his candidacy.[102] On 1 June, Liz Truss revealed an article of hers to be published the following day in The Mail on Sunday, providing Johnson with his first endorsement from a Cabinet minister.[103] Donald Trump said: "I think Boris would do a very good job. I think he would be excellent."[104] When prompted on Gove and Hunt, Trump said he liked the latter, and criticised the former for his stance on Iran.[105]
After recess[edit]
On 2 June, Sam Gyimah said no deal would be an "abject failure" and entered the race as the only candidate to back a referendum on the Brexit deal, with the options of remaining in the EU, leaving without a deal, or leaving with the current deal.[106][107] He withdrew eight days later.[108]
The One Nation conservative caucus of MPs announced a series of hustings over the week prior to close of nominations on 10 June.[109] With so many candidates in the race, candidates with less support from fellow MPs were under mounting pressure to leave the leadership race.[110] James Cleverly[111] and then Kit Malthouse[112] dropped out of the race on 4 June.
On the same day, the 1922 Committee decided on a rule change to the contest, determining that to make the ballot, MPs must have eight nominations by 10 June. The last-placed candidate in each round would be eliminated, but in addition, to survive the first and second ballots, MPs must obtain at least 5% and 10% of the total available votes (313) respectively (plus one representing their own vote; i.e., 17 and 33 respectively). The contest was to end in the week beginning 22 July.[113][114]
By 5 June, Johnson was the clear favourite with the bookmakers, with Gove second favourite.[115] In the hustings, Javid said he did not want to "become the Brexit Party" but Johnson said the party needed to "deliver Brexit on 31 October",[116] whilst Hancock called Jeremy Corbyn an anti-Semite.[117] On 7 June, Gove admitted to taking cocaine twenty years previously.[118][119] Before nominations formally opened on 10 June, Johnson promised to cut income tax for higher earners[120] and Gove to reduce VAT.[119] Johnson also pledged to refuse to pay £39 billion to the EU.[121] The candidates Hunt, Raab, Hancock, McVey and Gove all formally launched their campaigns on 10 June.[108] Johnson launched his campaign on 12 June. He sidestepped a question about his previous admission that he had taken cocaine.[122]
Raab said that he would be willing to prorogue Parliament in order to ensure the UK's departure from the European Union, particularly in order to leave without a deal.[123] Johnson refused to rule out prorogation, leading to Stewart saying that he would set up an "alternative Parliament" to stop him if he prorogued Parliament.[124][125]
On 13 June, the chancellor Philip Hammond wrote to candidates asking them to restrict themselves in any policy pledges they made to the current 2% of GDP deficit limit. This followed Raab saying he would reduce the income tax basic rate by 5p costing more than £20 billion annually, and Johnson saying he would raise the higher tax rate starting threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 costing £10 billion annually.[126]
MP ballots[edit]
In the first MP ballot on 13 June, Leadsom, Harper and McVey were eliminated as they failed to obtain 17 votes. Johnson came first, with over a third of MPs' support—enough to ensure, were none of those who voted for him to change their minds in subsequent ballots, that he would be one of the final two on whom the membership voted.[127] Hancock withdrew the next day.[128]
Johnson was criticised for avoiding media interviews and not participating in the first TV debate, held on 16 June on Channel 4.[129] All the other candidates took part, with an Opinium survey of those watching the debate having Stewart as the winner.[130]
In the second MP ballot on 18 June, Johnson retained his substantial lead, increased by twelve compared to the first ballot. Hunt retained second place, but Stewart was the biggest gainer, up 18. Raab was eliminated as both the bottom candidate and for getting less than the required 33 votes. All five remaining candidates, Johnson, Hunt, Gove, Stewart and Javid, took part in a BBC debate later that same day. One poll after the debate found Stewart again to be the winner, but a second found Johnson ahead.
The third MP ballot on 19 June saw the top three remain the same (Johnson, Hunt, Gove). Stewart was the only candidate to lose votes compared to the previous round, down ten to come last, and was thus eliminated.[131]
The fourth and fifth MP ballots were on 20 June. In the fourth ballot, Javid was eliminated, while Gove narrowly overtook Hunt for second place.[132] The fifth ballot to produce a final candidate pairing eliminated Gove, who received two votes fewer than Hunt. There were questions raised as to whether the Johnson campaign encouraged some supporters to vote for Hunt instead in order to knock Gove out of the leadership, given the poor personal relationship between Johnson and Gove since the 2016 leadership election.[133]