Prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
In March and April 2021, prior to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces began massing thousands of personnel and military equipment near Russia's border with Ukraine and in Crimea, representing the largest mobilisation since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.[37][38] This precipitated an international crisis due to concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armour, missiles, and heavy weaponry towards the border.[39][40] The troops were partially withdrawn by June 2021,[41] though the infrastructure was left in place. A second build-up began in October 2021, this time with more soldiers and with deployments on new fronts; by December over 100,000 Russian troops were massed around Ukraine on three sides, including Belarus from the north and Crimea from the south.[42] Despite the Russian military build-ups, Russian officials from November 2021 to 20 February 2022 repeatedly denied that Russia had plans to invade Ukraine.[43][44]
Not to be confused with Euromaidan, the prelude to the initial phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War from 2013–2014.
The crisis was related to the War in Donbas, itself part of the Russo-Ukrainian War, ongoing since February 2014. Intercepted phone conversations of Sergey Glazyev, a top advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, disclosed the specifics of the project Novorossiya to take over not just Crimea, but also the Donbas, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, which Russia apparently aimed to annex following Crimea.[45] The plan involved fomenting widespread unrest using pro-Russian agents on the ground, and then orchestrating uprisings that would announce rigged referendums about joining Russia, similar to the one that took place in Crimea on 16 March 2014. In December 2021, Russia advanced two draft treaties that contained requests for what it referred to as "security guarantees", including a legally binding promise that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a reduction in NATO troops and materiel stationed in Eastern Europe, threatening unspecified military response if those demands were not met in full. NATO rejected these requests, and the United States warned Russia of "swift and severe" economic sanctions should it further invade Ukraine.[46] The crisis was described by many commentators as one of the most intense in Europe since the Cold War.[47][48][49]
On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognised the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, as independent states,[50] and deployed troops to Donbas, in a move interpreted as Russia's effective withdrawal from the Minsk Protocol.[51][52] The breakaway republics were recognised in the boundaries of their respective Ukrainian oblasts, although much of this territory was still held by Ukrainian government forces.[53] On 22 February, Putin declared the Minsk agreements as invalid[54] and the Federation Council unanimously authorised him to use military force in the territories.[55] On the morning of 24 February, Putin announced that Russia was initiating a "special military operation" in the Donbas, and launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine.[56][57]
Initial tensions (March–April 2021)
First Russian military buildup
On 21 February 2021, the Russian Defence Ministry announced the deployment of 3,000 paratroopers to the border for "large-scale exercises".[131][132] The announcement was preceded by President Zelenskyy's decision on 2 February to implement recommendations from the country's National Security and Defence Council, which were intended to crackdown on Russian propaganda in Ukraine.[133] Amongst the measures enacted by Zelenskyy were sanctions on Opposition Platform — For Life party People's Deputies Viktor Medvedchuk and Taras Kozak, and a national ban on multiple pro-Russian television channels, including 112 Ukraine, NewsOne, and ZIK.[134][133] Medvedchuk, who also had alleged links to the banned media outlets, was a leading pro-Russian Ukrainian opposition politician and tycoon with close personal ties to Vladimir Putin.[135][136] An analysis by Time published in February 2022 cited the event as the start of the Russian military buildup near Ukraine.[137]
On 3 March, Suspilne claimed separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported they had been granted permission to use "preemptive fire for destruction" on Ukrainian military positions.[138] On 16 March, a State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (SBGS) border patrol in Sumy spotted a Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter coming approximately 50 metres (160 ft) into Ukrainian territory before heading back into Russian airspace.[139] Ten days later, Russian troops fired mortars at Ukrainian positions near the village of Shumy in the Donbas, killing four Ukrainian servicemen.[140] Russia refused to renew the ceasefire in Donbas on 1 April.[141][142]
Beginning from 16 March, NATO started a series of military exercises known as Defender-Europe 2021.[r] The military exercise, one of the largest NATO-led military exercises held in Europe in decades, included near-simultaneous operations across over 30 training areas in 12 countries, involving 28,000 troops from 27 nations.[146][147] Russia criticised NATO for holding Defender Europe 2021,[148] and deployed troops to its western borders for military exercises in response to NATO's military activities. The deployment led to Russia having a sizable troop buildup along the Russo-Ukrainian border by mid-April.[149][150][151] A Ukrainian estimate placed the deployment at approximately 40,000 Russian forces in occupied Crimea and the eastern portion of the Russo-Ukrainian border. The German government subsequently condemned the deployment as an act of provocation.[152]
Nearly a week later on 30 March, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Ruslan Khomchak revealed intelligence reports suggesting a military buildup by Russia close to Ukraine in preparations for the Zapad Exercises.[153][154] The buildup consisted of 28 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) situated primarily along the Russo-Ukrainian border in Rostov, Bryansk, and Voronezh Oblasts, as well as Russian-occupied Crimea,[155] and was ultimately expected to increase to 53 BTGs.[156][157] It was estimated that over 60,000 Russian troops were stationed in Crimea and Donbas,[158] with 2,000 military advisors and instructors in separatist-controlled Donbas alone.[159][160] Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed the military movements "[were] not of any concern" for neighbouring countries, and that the decisions for deployment were made to address matters of Russia's "national security".[161]
Between late March and early April 2021, significant quantities of weapons and equipment from various regions of Russia, including the far-eastern parts of Siberia, were transported towards the Russo-Ukrainian border and into Crimea.[162][163] Unofficial Russian sources, such as the pro-Russian Telegram channel Military Observer, published a video depicting the flight of a group of Russian Kamov Ka-52 and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters. It was emphasized by the original sources that the flight had allegedly taken place on the Russo-Ukrainian border.[164]