Able Archer 83
Able Archer 83 was a military exercise conducted by NATO that took place in November 1983. It simulated a period of heightened nuclear tensions between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, leading to concerns that it could have been mistaken for a real attack by the Soviet Union. The exercise is considered by some to be one of the closest moments the world came to nuclear war during the Cold War. It was the annual Able Archer exercise conducted in November 1983.[1][2] The purpose for the exercise, like previous years, was to simulate a period of conflict escalation, culminating in the US military attaining a simulated DEFCON 1 coordinated nuclear attack.[3] The five-day exercise, which involved NATO commands throughout Western Europe, was coordinated from the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) headquarters in Casteau, Belgium.
The 1983 exercise, which began on November 7, 1983, introduced several new elements not seen in previous years, including a new, unique format of coded communication, radio silences, and the participation of heads of government. This increase in realism, combined with tense relations between the United States and the Soviet Union and the anticipated arrival of Pershing II nuclear missiles in Europe, led some members of the Soviet Politburo and military to believe that Able Archer 83 was a ruse of war, obscuring preparations for a genuine nuclear first strike.[3][4][5][6] In response, the Soviet Union readied their nuclear forces and placed air units in East Germany and Poland on alert.[7][8] The Soviet 4th Air Army began loading nuclear warheads onto combat planes in preparation for war.[9] The apparent threat of nuclear war ended when U.S. Lieutenant General Leonard H. Perroots advised against responding to the Warsaw Pact military activity, which ended with the conclusion of the exercise on November 11.[10][11][12]
The exercise attracted public attention in 2015 when the President's Intelligence Advisory Board 1990 report on the exercise was declassified.[13] Some scholars have argued that Able Archer 83 was one of the times when the world has come closest to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.[14][15] The declassification of related documents in 2021 supported this notion.[9] Other scholars have disputed that Able Archer 83 almost led to nuclear war.[16][17]
Opposing views[edit]
Research by Simon Miles, an assistant professor of Public Policy and Russian and Eurasian Studies at Duke University’s Sanford School writing in 2020 – prior to the publication of previously classified documents, has disputed that Able Archer 83 almost led to nuclear war. With many individuals associating the Able Archer incident that occurred in 1983 as an event that nearly started a nuclear war, it is no surprise that there are a plethora of myths that surround the event. Many academic scholars have gone back and forth on whether or not this event was enough to trigger a nuclear war.[71]
Individuals like Gordon Barras, Raymond Garthoof, Beatrice Heuser, Mark Kramer, and Votjech Mastny challenge the narrative surrounding the incident that occurred in 1983. Academic scholars like Barras, Garthoof, Heuser, Kramer, and Mastny argue that Soviet individuals do not believe that tensions ever got to the point that the USSR prepared for a nuclear attack, nor were they anticipating an attack. In 2016, the re-opened investigation into a classified report covering Able Archer re-sparked interest in the event. This newfound interest sparked curiosity, and with it, narratives surrounding the exercise that could have caused a nuclear war. That is not to say that the narrative surrounding the event does not have some merit in its core, as a survey conducted by the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) in 1989 confirmed that there was a belief that the US sought to have military superiority over the USSR. However, the PFIAB did not confirm that individuals believed the exercise brought us closer to a war with the USSR; rather, they only confirm what everyone knew. The PFIAB concluded that the event merely increased tensions, but never led to any confirmed belief in an attack on any nation's behalf; rather, the PFIAB only could confirm that it was probable the USSR believed the exercise could have been interpreted as an attack.
As of right now, scholars who adhere to Western narratives surrounding the exercise find themselves leaning towards the belief that this event could have triggered a war. However, individuals who cling to Eastern narratives are less inclined to buy into the same narrative. The Scholars who adhere to the Eastern narratives are found to be the individuals to most forcibly contest the belief of a potential nuclear war as a result of the exercise.
Those with an opposing view may argue that the Able Archer exercise was not the potential start of a nuclear war, but rather, it was the attack on a plane three months prior. Some scholars point to the attack that occurred on Korean Airlines Flight 007 as the closest point of a nuclear war.[72] With beliefs on the USSR's behalf that this plane was acting out of reconnaissance, individuals can argue that this was in fact the closest event of the year 1983.
The true conditions at the time of the Able Archer exercise of 1983 may never be known, as many of the records from the Soviet period remain inaccessible. Relationships between various intelligence agencies and the KGB during the period in question can best be interpreted as mistrustful, as the information-sharing protocols themselves were an issue.[73]