Conflict escalation
Conflict escalation is the process by which conflicts grow in severity or scale over time. That may refer to conflicts between individuals or groups in interpersonal relationships, or it may refer to the escalation of hostilities in a political or military context. In systems theory, the process of conflict escalation is modeled by positive feedback. Conflict escalation can be modeled with game theory.[1]
While the word escalation was used as early as in 1938, it was popularized during the Cold War by two important books: On Escalation (Herman Kahn, 1965) and Escalation and the Nuclear Option (Bernard Brodie, 1966).[2] In those contexts, it especially referred to war between two major states with weapons of mass destruction during the Cold War.
Conflict escalation has a tactical role in military conflict and is often formalized with explicit rules of engagement. Highly-successful military tactics exploit a particular form of conflict escalation such as by controlling an opponent's reaction time, which allows the tactician to pursue or trap his opponent. Both Napoleon Bonaparte and Heinz Guderian advocated that approach. Sun Tzu elaborated it in a more abstract form and maintained that military strategy was about minimizing escalation and diplomacy was about eliminating it.
Prediction and forecasting[edit]
Conflict escalation forecasts have been increasing in reliability.[3] Asymmetric warfare can in some situations lead to presistent conflict escalation.[4] A Fait accompli can result in rewards for short periods of conflict escalation.[5] Appeasement can in some situations lead to conflict escalation.[6]
Systems view[edit]
Carol Moore, a later theorist, examined and described Gandhi's methods from the perspective of systems theory. Jay Forrester and Donella Meadows observed that people in crisis would often push the twelve leverage points towards escalation in the first stage and then reduce escalation when the resistance had weakened, and it was impossible to maintain the status quo.