COVID-19 pandemic in Africa
The COVID-19 pandemic was confirmed to have spread to Africa on 14 February 2020, with the first confirmed case announced in Egypt.[2][3] The first confirmed case in sub-Saharan Africa was announced in Nigeria at the end of February 2020.[4] Within three months, the virus had spread throughout the continent, as Lesotho, the last African sovereign state to have remained free of the virus, reported a case on 13 May 2020.[5][6] By 26 May, it appeared that most African countries were experiencing community transmission, although testing capacity was limited.[7] Most of the identified imported cases arrived from Europe and the United States rather than from China where the virus originated.[8]
In early June 2021, Africa faced a third wave of COVID infections with cases rising in 14 countries.[9] By 4 July the continent recorded more than 251,000 new Covid cases, a 20% increase from the prior week and a 12% increase from the January peak. More than sixteen African countries, including Malawi and Senegal, recorded an uptick in new cases.[10] The World Health Organization labelled it Africa's 'Worst Pandemic Week Ever'.[11]
Many preventive measures have been implemented by different countries in Africa. These include travel restrictions, flight cancellations, event cancellations,[12] school closures, and border closures.[13]
It is believed that there is widespread under-reporting in many African countries with less developed healthcare systems.[14] According to the autumn 2020 seroprevalence study in Juba in South Sudan, less than 1% of infected were actually reported.[15] Similar results were found in 2022 by WHO modelers.[16]
New variants of concern of the virus were found in Africa: in February 2020 the Beta variant in South Africa,[17] in December 2020 the Eta variant in Nigeria,[18][19] and in November 2021 the Omicron variant in Botswana.[20]
The African Union secured close to 300 million COVID-19 vaccine doses in the largest such agreement yet for Africa; it was announced on 13 January 2021. This is independent of the global Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (COVAX) effort aimed at distributing COVID-19 vaccines to lower-income countries.[21] Notably, however, African countries were being charged more than double what European countries had to pay for certain vaccines.[22] The Group of Seven (G-7) promised an equitable distribution of vaccines on 19 February 2021, although few details were provided.[23] The United Arab Emirates has also stepped forward as a vaccine provider for the continent.[24][25]
Despite these breakthroughs, Africa is the world's least vaccinated continent.[26] At the beginning of June 2021 the World Health Organization reported that COVID-19 vaccine shipments had ground to a "near halt" in Africa.[27] On 8 June, the Sudanese-British billionaire philanthropist Mo Ibrahim sharply criticized the international community for failing to ensure equitable vaccine distribution across the globe.[28] By 8 July 2021, only 2% of the continent had been inoculated.[10]
Several African governments are experiencing criticism for a perceived lack of readiness, corruption scandals, and forcing new lockdowns too late, undermining trust in the state. Currently, twenty of the 39 nations on the World Bank's harmonised list of fragile and conflict-affected states are in Africa.[29][30]
To support the COVID-19 recovery, Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole would need to raise expenditure by around 6% of GDP ($100 billion), whereas MENA would need to boost spending by 9% of GDP.[31][32]
Overall history[edit]
By the second week of June 2020, Africa had surpassed 200,000 cases in total.[33] The number of confirmed new cases accelerated in June, with the continent having taken 98 days to record the first 100,000 cases, and 18 days for the second 100,000. The pace of acceleration has continued, with cases passing both the 300,000 and 400,000 marks on 6 July. On 8 July 2020, cases had exceeded half a million. Half of the 500,000 cases reported in the continent are from South Africa or Egypt.[34] Ten countries account for 80% of the reported cases.[34] The World Health Organization voiced alarm at the spread in Africa on 20 July 2020, stating that South Africa's surging numbers could be a precursor for further outbreaks across the continent.[35] The number exceeded a million by 6 August, with five countries making up over 75% of the total confirmed cases: South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia and Nigeria.[36] The true case numbers are believed to be significantly higher than the confirmed counts, due to low testing rates in many African countries.[37] The mortality rates of African countries, however, are relatively low compared to Europe due to the younger age of their populations.[36] On 21 August the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) expressed "cautious optimism" as the number of new cases took a downturn, while warning against complacency.[38] In some countries, the number of cases began to rise. On 29 October, John Nkengasong, the head of Africa CDC, said: "The time to prepare for a second wave is truly now."[39]
On 12 November, Africa CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that confirmed cases have been increasing since July, particularly in North Africa (Tunisia, Morocco and Libya). The curve has flattened in South Africa and Kenya, while Senegal and Equatorial Guinea have seen a steady decline.[40]
During the summer of 2021, the number of cases increased and reached almost 202,000 a week by 27 June.[41] As of 13 July 2021, 22 of the 55 African states had reported cases of the Delta variant.[41]
For the first time since the apex of the fourth wave generated by the Omicron strain, the weekly number of COVID-19 cases in Africa has "significantly decreased," and the number of deaths has also decreased, according to a statement released by the World Health Organization on Thursday, 10 February 2022.[42]
African countries contributed significantly to the identification of the Omicron variant in November 2021, when Tulio de Oliveira of Stellenbosch University, a Brazilian-born bioinformatician, for the first time informed the public of the variant’s dozens of mutations, making it more contagious globally. African academics have sharply criticised the 'Global North' for hogging crucial vaccines, unfairly imposing travel bans, and depriving African scientists of the credits they deserve for sequencing new emerging variants.[43]
Background[edit]
Impact[edit]
Experts have worried about COVID-19 spreading to Africa, because many of the healthcare systems on the continent are inadequate, having problems such as lack of equipment, lack of funding, insufficient training of healthcare workers, and inefficient data transmission. It was feared that the pandemic could be difficult to keep under control in Africa, and could cause huge economic problems if it spread widely.[258][8]
The pandemic has had a serious economic impact in African countries, damaging the continent's growing middle class and threatening to increase the rates of poverty and extreme poverty.[259] On 23 June 2021, researchers from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Africa Research, Implementation Science and Education (ARISE) Network published six studies on the impact of the virus and control measures on nutrition, health, and areas of existing inequities.[260] Their findings included food price increases, disrupted schooling, and a disruption in health care services.[260]
Previous research found that crowding out grew from 2014 to 2018, reaching high levels in a number of countries, including Ghana, Niger, Tanzania, and Zambia. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Africa's debt accumulation between 2008 and 2017 resulted in increasing public debt on bank balance sheets, higher interest rates on sovereign paper in several African nations, and collapsing banks. Given the enormous growth in indebtedness across Africa in 2020, there is a definite possibility of this cycle recurring, impeding recovery from the pandemic.[261][262]
COVID-19 Enterprise survey follow-up modules were conducted in nine African nations between 2020 and 2021, producing results consistent with a severe economic effect.[261][263] Around 88% of enterprises in countries where COVID-19 follow-up surveys were conducted (three in Southern Africa, one in East Africa, four in West Africa, and one in North Africa) were suffering diminished liquidity, with more than 55% of them closing temporarily during the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost 8% had declared bankruptcy, and 26% of enterprises are past due on financial institution commitments. Firms that depend on equity are at 36%. Rather than depending on commercial bank loans to address cash flow issues, these are more likely to succeed at 16%.[261]