Coup d'état
A coup d'état (/ˌkuːdeɪˈtɑː/ ; French: [ku deta]; lit. 'stroke of state'),[1] or simply a coup, is typically an illegal and overt attempt by a military organization or other government elites to unseat an incumbent leadership.[2][3] A self-coup is when a leader, having come to power through legal means, tries to stay in power through illegal means.[3]
"Counter-coup" and "Coup" redirect here. For the injury type, see Coup contrecoup injury. For other uses, see Coup (disambiguation) and Coup d'état (disambiguation).
By one estimate, there were 457 coup attempts from 1950 to 2010, half of which were successful.[2] Most coup attempts occurred in the mid-1960s, but there were also large numbers of coup attempts in the mid-1970s and the early 1990s.[2] Coups occurring in the post-Cold War period have been more likely to result in democratic systems than Cold War coups,[4][5][6] though coups still mostly perpetuate authoritarianism.[7]
Many factors may lead to the occurrence of a coup, as well as determine the success or failure of a coup. Once a coup is underway, coup success is driven by coup-makers' ability to get elites and the public to believe that their coup attempt will be successful.[8] The number of successful coups has decreased over time.[2] Failed coups in authoritarian systems are likely to strengthen the power of the authoritarian ruler.[9][10] The cumulative number of coups is a strong predictor of future coups, a phenomenon referred to as the "coup trap".[11][12][13][14]
In what is referred to as "coup-proofing", regimes create structures that make it hard for any small group to seize power. These coup-proofing strategies may include the strategic placing of family, ethnic, and religious groups in the military; and fragmenting of military and security agencies.[15] However, coup-proofing reduces military effectiveness as loyalty is prioritized over experience when filling key positions within the military.[16][17][18][19][20][21][22]
Etymology[edit]
The term comes from French coup d'État, literally meaning a 'stroke of state' or 'blow of state'.[23][24][25] In French, the word État (French: [eta]) is capitalized when it denotes a sovereign political entity.[26]
Although the concept of a coup d'état has featured in politics since antiquity, the phrase is of relatively recent coinage.[27] It did not appear within an English text before the 19th century except when used in the translation of a French source, there being no simple phrase in English to convey the contextualized idea of a 'knockout blow to the existing administration within a state'.
One early use within text translated from French was in 1785 in a printed translation of a letter from a French merchant, commenting on an arbitrary decree, or arrêt, issued by the French king restricting the import of British wool.[28] What may be its first published use within a text composed in English is an editor's note in the London Morning Chronicle,1804, reporting the arrest by Napoleon in France, of Moreau, Berthier, Masséna, and Bernadotte: "There was a report in circulation yesterday of a sort of coup d'état having taken place in France, in consequence of some formidable conspiracy against the existing government."
In the British press, the phrase came to be used to describe the various murders by Napoleon's alleged secret police, the Gens d'Armes d'Elite, who executed the Duke of Enghien: "the actors in torture, the distributors of the poisoning draughts, and the secret executioners of those unfortunate individuals or families, whom Bonaparte's measures of safety require to remove. In what revolutionary tyrants call grand[s] coups d'état, as butchering, or poisoning, or drowning, en masse, they are exclusively employed."[29]
Successful coups are one method of regime change that thwarts the peaceful transition of power.[55][56]
A 2016 study categorizes four possible outcomes to coups in dictatorships:[5]
The study found that about half of all coups in dictatorships—both during and after the Cold War—install new autocratic regimes.[5] New dictatorships launched by coups engage in higher levels of repression in the year after the coup than existed in the year before the coup.[5] One-third of coups in dictatorships during the Cold War and 10% of later ones reshuffled the regime leadership.[5] Democracies were installed in the wake of 12% of Cold War coups in dictatorships and 40% of post-Cold War ones.[5]
Coups occurring in the post-Cold War period have been more likely to result in democratic systems than Cold War coups,[4][5][6] though coups still mostly perpetuate authoritarianism.[7] Coups that occur during civil wars shorten the war's duration.[58]
Impact[edit]
Democracy[edit]
Research suggests that coups promoting democratization in staunchly authoritarian regimes have become less likely to end in democracy over time, and that the positive influence has strengthened since the end of the Cold War.[4][5][96][97][98]
A 2014 study found that "coups promote democratization, particularly among states that are least likely to democratize otherwise".[96] The authors argue that coup attempts can have this consequence because leaders of successful coups have incentives to democratize quickly in order to establish political legitimacy and economic growth, while leaders who stay in power after failed coup attempts see it as a sign that they must enact meaningful reforms to remain in power.[96] A 2014 study found that 40% of post-Cold War coups were successful. The authors argue that this may be due to the incentives created by international pressure.[4] A 2016 study found that democracies were installed in 12% of Cold War coups and 40% of the post-Cold War coups.[5] A 2020 study found that coups tended to lead to increases in state repression, not reductions.[99]
According to a 2020 study, "external reactions to coups play important roles in whether coup leaders move toward authoritarianism or democratic governance. When supported by external democratic actors, coup leaders have an incentive to push for elections to retain external support and consolidate domestic legitimacy. When condemned, coup leaders are apt to trend toward authoritarianism to assure their survival."[100]
According to legal scholar Ilya Somin a coup to forcibly overthrow democratic government might be sometimes justified. Commenting on the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt, Somin opined,
