John McCain 2008 presidential campaign
The 2008 presidential campaign of John McCain, the longtime senior U.S. Senator from Arizona, was launched with an informal announcement on February 28, 2007, during a live taping of the Late Show with David Letterman, and formally launched at an event on April 25, 2007. His second candidacy for the Presidency of the United States, he had previously run for his party's nomination in the 2000 primaries and was considered as a potential running mate for his party's nominee, then-Governor George W. Bush of Texas. After winning a majority of delegates in the Republican primaries of 2008, on August 29, leading up to the convention, McCain selected Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate for Vice President. Five days later, at the 2008 Republican National Convention, McCain was formally selected as the Republican Party presidential nominee in the 2008 presidential election.
John McCain for President 2008
- John McCain
- U.S. Senator from Arizona
- (1987–2018)
- Sarah Palin
- 9th Governor of Alaska
- (2006–2009)
Announced: February 28, 2007
Presumptive nominee: March 4, 2008
Official nominee: September 3, 2008
Lost election: November 4, 2008
Steve Schmidt (operations chief)[1]
Rick Davis (campaign manager)
Robert Mosbacher (general chairman)
Tom Loeffler (co-chair)
Tim Pawlenty (co-chair)[2]
Jill Hazelbaker (spokeswoman)[3]
US$370 million (December 31, 2007)
Country First
The Original Maverick
Best Prepared to Lead from Day One
Courageous Service, Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions.
A leader we can believe in
Reform • Prosperity • Peace
"My Hero" by Foo Fighters[4]
'Maverick
Drill, Baby, Drill!'
McCain began the campaign as the apparent frontrunner among Republicans, with a strategy of appearing as the establishment, inevitable candidate; his campaign website featured an Associated Press article describing him as "[a] political celebrity".[5] He made substantial overtures towards elements of the Republican base that had resisted his 2000 insurgency campaign.[6] However, he soon fell behind in polls and fundraising; by July 2007 his campaign was forced to restructure its size and operations. The tide of Republican sentiment against immigration reform legislation he sponsored also led to the erosion of his lead.[6]
Towards the end of 2007, McCain began a resurgence, which was capped by his January 2008 wins in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries. This made him the front-runner for the Republican nomination. On Super Tuesday, McCain won both the majority of states and delegates in the Republican primaries, giving him a commanding lead toward the Republican nomination. McCain clinched a majority of the delegates and became the presumptive Republican nominee with wins in several more primaries on March 4.[7] The following day, President George W. Bush endorsed McCain at the White House.
In the general election, facing Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, McCain was trailing during most of the season, only gaining a lead in national polls for a period after the Palin announcement and the 2008 Republican National Convention. The dominant issue of the campaign became the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Unable to gain traction against Obama in presidential debates, the final stages of the campaign saw McCain criticizing Obama for being a "redistributionist" and adopting symbols such as Joe the Plumber.
On November 4, 2008, McCain lost to Barack Obama in the general election, receiving 173 votes of the electoral college to Obama's 365 and gaining 46 percent of the popular vote to Obama's 53 percent. Had McCain been elected, he would have been the first president not born in a U.S. state, as he was born in the Panama Canal Zone (a U.S. territory at the time of McCain's birth). McCain would have also been the first president from the state of Arizona, and he would have become the oldest elected president. This would have surpassed Ronald Reagan's age of 69, whereas Palin would have been the first female vice president, as well as the first vice president from Alaska and outside the mainland United States, and Todd Palin would have also became the first second gentleman of the United States.
Leading up to the announcement[edit]
McCain's oft-cited strengths[8] as a potential presidential candidate in 2008 included national name recognition, sponsorship of major lobbying and campaign finance reform initiatives and leadership in exposing the Abramoff scandal.[9][10]
He was well known for his military service (including years as a tortured POW) and competing in the 2000 presidential campaign, in which he won the New Hampshire primary before eventually losing the nomination to George W. Bush. McCain also impressed many Republicans with his strong support for President Bush's re-election campaign in 2004, and his role in the confirmation of many of Bush's judicial nominees.[8] Since 1993, he also has served as chairman of the International Republican Institute, a U.S. government-funded organization involved in supporting political democracy around the world.
A Time magazine poll dated January 2007 showed McCain deadlocked with possible Democratic opponent Senator Hillary Clinton at 46%; in the same poll McCain trailed Democratic senator Barack Obama 41% to 48%.[11] An earlier Time poll indicated that more Americans were familiar with McCain than any of the other frontrunners, including Obama and Republican candidate and former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani.[12] During the 2006 election cycle, McCain attended 346 events and raised more than $10.5 million on behalf of Republican candidates. He also donated nearly $1.5 million to federal, state and county parties.[13]
In May 2006, McCain gave the commencement address at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University. During his 2000 presidential bid, McCain had called Falwell an "agent of intolerance." With significant coverage during the campaign, McCain said that he would never back down from his earlier statement. His later appearance at Liberty University prompted questions about the McCain–Falwell relationship and a possible presidential run in 2008. McCain backtracked and stated that Falwell is no longer as divisive and the two have discussed their shared values.[14] McCain delivered a similar address at The New School commencement in Madison Square Garden. McCain was booed, and several students and professors turned their backs or waved fliers reading "McCain does not speak for me."[15] McCain's speech mentioned his unwavering support for the Iraq War and focused on hearing opposing viewpoints, listening to each other, and the relevance of opposition in a democracy.[16]
Caucuses and primaries 2008[edit]
Iowa[edit]
The first vote of the 2008 election season took place in the Iowa caucuses on January 3, 2008. McCain came in fourth place, with 13.1% of the vote. Mike Huckabee was the winner with 34%.[86][87] Because McCain, unlike Romney and Huckabee, had not focused on Iowa early, his campaign officials said they were satisfied with his placement.[86] Many political observers considered Huckabee's easy win a blow to Romney, McCain's main rival in New Hampshire. Romney spent about five times as much as Huckabee on advertising in Iowa.[88][89]
New Hampshire[edit]
The New Hampshire primaries came only five days after Iowa. McCain's rising New Hampshire poll numbers indicated that he could benefit from Romney's poor Iowa showing.[90][91] McCain participated in a January 5 debate along with Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson and Paul. The debate particularly highlighted differences between McCain and Romney, as the two traded shots on the immigration issue.[92] Polls in the days leading up to the vote showed McCain leading Romney in a tight race, and all candidates campaigned in the state in the days following the Iowa vote.[93][94][95] McCain held over 100 of his signature town hall-style meetings in the state, in many cases repeating visits that he had made during his successful 2000 primary there.[96] A "pivotal moment" for the campaign came a month before the primary, when the New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed McCain.[97] Despite McCain's resurgence, his campaign was still strapped for funds: top-level staff was working without paychecks, commercials were being prepared at cost, and event mailers were only a quarter of what he was able to send out in his 2000 campaign.[96]
A strong performance in the ABC, Facebook Debates at Saint Anselm College, combined with months of hard work from his dedicated staff resulted in McCain winning the New Hampshire primary,[98] gaining about 37 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney's 32 percent.[98] Amid chants of "Mac is back!", McCain made his victory remarks. "When the pundits declared us finished, I told them, 'I'm going to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make their decisions for them... I'm going to New Hampshire, and I'm going to tell people the truth.'"[98]
Michigan[edit]
With different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire—and Mitt Romney taking the lower-profile Wyoming caucus—the January 15 Michigan primary loomed as an important battle, despite the state's delegation size being cut in half for holding the primary too early. Polls after New Hampshire showed a tight race between McCain and Romney, with Huckabee a close third.[99][100] Many saw Michigan as Romney's last chance for a campaign-saving win after disappointments in the first two races.[101][102] Others said that a win in Michigan could cement McCain's status as the "front-runner" for the nomination.[103] McCain's campaign garnered about $1 million in newly contributed funds immediately after the New Hampshire win,[104] but still had $3.5 million in bank debt.[105] He was not alone in feeling a financial pinch; the entire Republican field suffered from a lack of enthusiasm and lower donations than the Democratic candidates were receiving.[104]
Nevertheless, some polls showed McCain getting a significant national bounce from his New Hampshire win; the January 11 CNN nationwide poll had him leading with 34 percent support, a 21-point increase from where he had been just a month before.[106] As the Michigan race entered its final days, McCain gained some notoriety by sending out mailers there and in South Carolina attacking Romney's tax record and touting his own. A Romney campaign spokesman called the ad "as sloppy as it is factually incorrect", and FactCheck.org called the piece "misleading". McCain responded by saying, "It's not negative campaigning. I think it's what his record is." "It's a tough business," he added.[107][108][109]
The dominant issue in Michigan was the state of the economy. Michigan had by far the nation's largest unemployment rate, at 7.4 percent, and was continuing to lose jobs from its historical manufacturing base.[110] McCain offered a bit of his "straight talk" strategy, saying that "There are some jobs that aren't coming back to Michigan," and proposing federal job training plans and other remedies to compensate.[110] Romney seized on McCain's statement as overly pessimistic and promoted instead his family heritage—"[I've] got the automobile industry in my blood veins"—as well as his being a Washington outsider who would go there and "turn Washington inside out."[110]
In the end, McCain finished second in the primary behind Romney, gaining 30 percent of the vote to Romney's 39 percent.[111]
South Carolina and Nevada[edit]
The campaign then moved towards the January 19 South Carolina primary, the state which effectively ended McCain's 2000 campaign for president. Unlike 2000, McCain had the support of much of the state Republican establishment, both in terms of endorsements and campaign staff support.[112] Nevertheless a bit of 2000 surfaced when a group of unknown size called "Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain" set up a website and began sending crude mailers to media members alleging that McCain passed military information to the North Vietnamese during his time as a POW.[113] McCain set up a Truth Squad to combat such attacks and emphasized that he was supported by 75 former POWs.[113] Orson Swindle, who was a POW with McCain, called the flier a "vicious" fraud. "Nothing could be further from the truth," Swindle said. "I know because I was there. The truth is, the North Vietnamese offered John McCain early release, and he refused."[114] After that, however, there was little in the way of dirty tricks during the rest of the campaign.[115]
McCain won the South Carolina primary on January 19, gaining 33% of the vote compared to second-place finisher Mike Huckabee's 30%,[116] winning groups he usually did well with, such as veterans and seniors, and doing well enough with other groups, such as evangelicals.[112] In his victory remarks to supporters that evening, he said, "It took us awhile, but what's eight years among friends?," noting the reversal of fortune from his 2000 defeat there.[117] Indeed, The New York Times described McCain's win as "exorcising the ghosts of the attack-filled primary here that derailed his presidential hopes eight years ago."[117] Pundits credited third-place finisher Fred Thompson with drawing votes from Huckabee in South Carolina, thereby giving a narrow victory to McCain.[118]
There had been a steady barrage of apocalyptic statements and predictions in the days before the South Carolina vote from movement conservative icons:[119] Rush Limbaugh said that if Huckabee or McCain won the nomination, it would "destroy the Republican Party... be the end of it,"[119] while Tom DeLay said "McCain has done more to hurt the Republican Party than any elected official I know of."[119] Other talk radio hosts also subjected McCain to criticism for being insufficiently conservative. Prominent conservative radio host Michael Medved said after McCain's win that talk radio was the "big loser" of the primary, adding that the medium has "unmistakably collapsed in terms of impact, influence and credibility because of its hysterical and one-dimensional involvement in the GOP nomination fight."[120]
The Nevada caucus the same day drew less attention from Republican candidates, although the state had 31 delegates at stake compared to South Carolina's 24.[121][122] McCain did not seriously compete in Nevada,[123] and finished third with 13% of the vote, finishing behind both Romney and Ron Paul.[124]
Florida[edit]
The race then moved to the January 29 Florida primary. This would be a test for McCain among core Republican voters, as unlike New Hampshire and South Carolina, independents and Democrats would not be able to vote in the Republican primary.[125] McCain, Giuliani and Romney were closely matched in pre-election polls, and the contest was seen as important to each campaign, as it was the last primary before Super Tuesday, when 41% of the total delegates were up for grabs. It was also the first time that Rudy Giuliani would seriously compete for delegates since a partial effort in New Hampshire, and the first primary after Fred Thompson withdrew his candidacy.[126][127]
A January 24 debate at Florida Atlantic University was sedate, with none of the candidates attacking each other and economics the predominant theme.[128] By the next day, however, McCain and Romney were going at each other, with McCain accusing Romney of having once advocated timetables for withdrawal from Iraq, and Romney saying that was untrue—an assessment shared by news organizations, which labeled McCain's charge as misleading[129]—and demanding an apology. Certain statements dogged McCain. NBC News' Tim Russert during a debate raised a McCain quote in which McCain said, "I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated."[130][131]
Romney seized on these and declared that he, not McCain, was the right choice to lead the country during times of economic uncertainty. On the day before the vote, McCain slammed Romney for flip-flopping, while Romney released a "top ten list" of times McCain had attacked fellow Republicans.[132] Both candidates used the ultimate Republican insult, calling each other a liberal.[133] Overall, McCain was outspent by Romney on Florida television ads by a 3-to-1 margin.[134] Conservative talk radio continued to hammer McCain, with Laura Ingraham saying she was "concerned about the mental stability of the McCain campaign" and Mark Levin continuing his practice of calling him "John McLame".[135]
As the election neared, Giuliani slumped to a battle for third place with Huckabee, while McCain and Romney each had polls showing them in the lead. McCain garnered the late endorsements of Florida Senator and former Chairman of the Republican National Committee Mel Martinez[136] and the highly popular Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist;[136] Crist had reportedly pledged his support to Giuliani, and the Giuliani campaign was described as "visibly upset" by the McCain endorsement.[137]
On January 29, 2008, McCain won the Florida primary and the state's 57 delegates, taking 36% of the total vote. Romney was second with 31% and Giuliani was third at 15%.[138]
Super Tuesday[edit]
After Florida, the campaigns focused their attention on the 21 states voting on February 5, known as Super Tuesday. McCain was seen as the front-runner for the nomination heading in to this most important of primary dates. He had the lead in delegates to the national convention, and on January 30 he was officially endorsed by the withdrawing Giuliani.[139] The candidates sparred at a debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, on January 30, with former First Lady Nancy Reagan present in the front row.[140] The most heated exchange came as Romney accused McCain of dirty tricks in his misleading[129] Florida statements about Romney having proposed an Iraq withdrawal timetable.[140]
Media coverage[edit]
An October 29, 2007, study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy found that through the first five months of 2007, McCain had received the most unfavorable media coverage of any of the major 2008 presidential candidates, with 12 percent of the stories having a favorable tone towards him, 48 percent having an unfavorable tone, and with the balance neutral.[378] In terms of amount of coverage, McCain was the subject of 7 percent of all stories, second-most among Republicans and fourth-most overall.[378] McCain's negative coverage mostly included pessimistic "horse race" stories that focused on his campaign's slippage in national polls and fundraising difficulty;[379] it also included his support for the then-unpopular Iraq troop surge.[379] McCain's campaign went through its near-total collapse soon after the window of this study; the press subsequently focused on a "McCain is dead" story line through the summer, which it was slow to change away from.[380]
By the time the 2008 primary season began, McCain's media coverage had shifted and he was now viewed as a "comeback" story. In addition, McCain returned to his long-standing practice of granting almost unlimited media access to him on this bus;[381] this as well as the notion that he engages in "straight talk" free of political calculation[380] gave him a positive personal sentiment in the press.[380] Reflecting this feeling, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough joked of the media, "I think every last one of them would move to Massachusetts and marry John McCain if they could."[382] Measurements by the University of Navarra indicated that throughout January 2008, McCain's global media attention surged from being a distant third among Republican candidates to being the equal of Romney and Huckabee.[383]
In July 2008, the McCain campaign shifted to a much more restrictive attitude toward the press, virtually ending the former time for open-ended questions.[384] McCain's press conferences became infrequent and, as one reporter stated, "He no longer ventures to the press section of his campaign plane to talk to reporters."[385]
Fundraising and finances[edit]
After first-quarter fundraising totals were released in early April, totals showed McCain's $13.6 million lagging behind rivals in the race. He spent more than $8 million in campaign funds during the first quarter, leaving him with $5.2 million in the bank and $1.8 million in debts.[400] McCain exceeded 51,000 individual donors, more than rivals Giuliani, with 28,356, and Romney, with 36,538.[400] However, McCain was worried at the high "burn rate" of money used during the first quarter and retooled his entire financial operations after the reports came back.[401]
McCain's second-quarter fundraising totals were worse, with intake falling to $11.2 million and expenses continuing such that only $2 million cash was on hand. McCain's aides said the campaign was considering taking public matching funds[51] There are some indications that although the campaign has $2 million cash on hand at the end of Q2, a 7-figure debt will make the monetary situation even more dire.[402]
As of September 30, 2007, McCain had raised $32,124,785 for his campaign for presidency. Private donors have given $30,183,761 toward his campaign, PACs have given $458,307, and $1,482,717 has come from other sources. 70% of the PAC contributions have come from business groups, 1% from labor groups, and the final 29% from ideological organizations. So far 95.6% of his finances have been disclosed, while 4.4% has not.[403]
McCain was the first candidate to accept financing from the presidential election campaign fund checkoff.[404][405]
During the campaign's summer 2007 financial woes, it used a list of donors as collateral in order to get approval on a bank loan.[406] This raised the question of whether the campaign's privacy policy[407] was violated by such a use.[406] A McCain spokesperson said it did not, since all of the campaign's assets were pledged as collateral at the time, not just the donor list.[406]
By December 2007, McCain was using 32 lobbyists as fundraisers, more than any other candidate.[408]
Although McCain accepted public financing for the general election campaign, and the restrictions that go with it, his opponent did not, and McCain criticized Obama for becoming the first major party candidate in history to opt out of public financing.[409][410]
The McCain campaign received US$7 million in contributions in a single day after announcing Palin as the presumptive vice-presidential nominee.[239]
Nevertheless, down the stretch run of the general election campaign, McCain was outspent by Obama by a four-to-one margin.[351] In the end, from September 1 to the end of the campaign, McCain spent directly the $84 million allotted to him by the public financing rules, while Obama, having opted out of that system, spent $315 million directly during the same period.[411]
