New Hampshire presidential primary
The New Hampshire presidential primary is the first in a series of nationwide party primary elections and the second party contest, the first being the Iowa caucuses, held in the United States every four years as part of the process of choosing the delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions which choose the party nominees for the presidential elections to be held in November. Although only a few delegates are chosen in the New Hampshire primary, its real importance comes from the massive media coverage it receives, along with the first caucus in Iowa.
For the most recent primaries, see 2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary and 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.
Spurred by the events of the 1968 election, reforms that began with the 1972 election elevated the two states' importance to the overall election,[1] and began to receive as much media attention as all of the other state contests combined.[2] An upset victory by an underdog candidate, or a weak showing by a front-runner can change the course of the primaries, as happened in 1952, 1968, and 2008 for the Democrats, and in 1980 for the Republicans.
Since 1952, the primary has been a major testing ground for candidates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly frequently drop out, while lesser-known, underfunded candidates who excel in New Hampshire can become serious contenders, garnering large amounts of media attention and campaign funding.
The New Hampshire primary is a semi-open primary: unaffiliated voters (those registered without party affiliation) may vote in either party's primary. Voters registered with one party cannot "cross vote" to vote in another party's primary.
"First primary" status and efforts to change[edit]
New Hampshire state law provides: "The presidential primary election shall be held on the second Tuesday in March or on a date selected by the secretary of state which is 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, whichever is earlier."[3][a] New Hampshire has closely guarded its "first primary in the nation" status through this provision.[5] The state has held the first primary in each presidential campaign since 1920.[6]
The Iowa caucuses, which began in 1972 for Democrats and 1976 for Republicans, occur earlier than the New Hampshire primary.[7][8] Iowa's contest is not considered to be "a similar election" because the caucuses do not involve actual balloting.[5]
New Hampshire's status as the first in the nation has been considered controversial by those who claim the ethnic makeup of the state is not diverse enough.[9] Efforts to alter New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary status have periodically occurred.[10] In 2007, different states attempted to leapfrog other states by scheduling earlier primaries and caucuses for the 2008 presidential race.[10][6] Florida, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina all moved their nominating contests up.[6] New Hampshire ultimately retained its first-primary status, holding its primary on January 8, 2008, the earliest ever date.[10]
In 2023, the Democratic National Committee approved a calendar that would make New Hampshire the second Democratic primary to be held in 2024. Under the DNC calendar, the South Carolina primary would be held first on February 3, followed by both the New Hampshire primary and Nevada caucuses on February 6. New Hampshire officials of both parties have opposed the move, and vowed to go forward with a first-in-the-nation primary, even if it triggers a loss of its convention delegates as a penalty for breaching the party calendar.[11][12][13]
Mechanics of the primary[edit]
Voter eligibility[edit]
The New Hampshire primary is a semi-open primary:[14][15] unaffiliated voters (those registered without party affiliation) may vote in either party's primary. Votes registered with one party cannot "cross vote" to vote in another party's primary.[16]
Candidate and party eligibility[edit]
Under state law, officially recognized parties may hold a state-sanctioned primary.[17] To receive official party status, a party's candidate must receive at least 4% of the votes cast for governor or U.S. senator in the most recent general election in New Hampshire.[17][18] Currently, only Democrats and Republicans meet this criterion.[17]
New Hampshire has a low barrier to ballot access. Any person may run for president by (1) paying a $1,000 filing fee or collecting the signatures of 10 registered voters in each New Hampshire county and (2) completing a declaration of candidacy form that declares, under penalty of perjury, that the candidate meets the constitutional requirement for the presidency, being at least 35 years old, a natural-born citizen status, and a U.S. resident for at least 14 years. A candidates must affirm that he or she is a registered member of the party for the nomination they seek.[17]
The record number of candidates was 62, in the 1992 primary.[17] In the 2016 New Hampshire primary, 58 candidates ran.[17] Many candidates who appear on the ballot are obscure or fringe, and some are perennial candidates. Saint Anselm College runs a Lesser-Known Candidates Forum every four years.[19]
Balloting[edit]
The primary is conducted by secret ballot. Voters mark their selection on paper ballots, which are tabulated by hand and optical scan.[20]
Dixville Notch and other "midnight voting" towns[edit]
The communities of Dixville Notch, Hart's Location, and Millsfield traditionally participate in the New Hampshire midnight voting, in which they open their polling places at midnight.[21] In particular, the polling place inside the ballroom of The Balsams Grand Resort Hotel in Dixville Notch opens at midnight, usually in front of a crowd of journalists, where the village's handful of voters cast their ballots before the polls close about less than ten minutes later.[22] This has led many presidential candidates to visit the area before the New Hampshire primary in hopes of securing an early-morning boost.[23]
Significance[edit]
There is consensus among scholars and pundits that the New Hampshire primary, because of the timing and the vast media attention, can have a great impact and may even make, break or revive a candidate.[24] Controlling for other factors statistically, a win in New Hampshire increases a candidate's share of the final primary count in all states by 27 percentage points.[25]
Since 1977, New Hampshire has fought hard to keep its timing as the first primary, while Iowa has the first caucus a few days sooner. State law requires that its primary must be the first in the nation. It has been the first by tradition since 1920.[26] As a result, the state has moved its primary earlier in the year to remain the first.
The primary was held on the following dates: 1952–1968, the second Tuesday in March. 1972, the first Tuesday in March. 1976–1984, the fourth Tuesday in February. 1988–1996, the third Tuesday in February. 2000, the first Tuesday in February (February 1). 2004, the fourth Tuesday in January (January 27). The shifts have been to compete with changing primary dates in other states. The primary dates for 2008 (January 8) and 2012 (January 10) continued the trend – they were held the second Tuesday in January, in both years.
In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Governor John H. Sununu in 1988.[27]
Recently, media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves. Meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992, Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid". The extra media attention helped his campaign's visibility in later primaries.[28]
The most recent presidential election winner to win the New Hampshire primary was Donald Trump in 2016. The three presidents before him (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama) finished second in the New Hampshire primary before later being elected to the presidency. The previous four presidents before that, won the New Hampshire primary.
Notes: An asterisk indicates a write-in candidate. Candidates in bold won the primary. Candidates in italics were incumbent presidents.
Notes: An asterisk indicates a write-in candidate. Candidates in bold won the primary. Candidates in italics were incumbent presidents.
Early votes:
Reform plans: