Leadership spill
In Australian politics, leadership spill (or simply spill)[1] is a colloquialism referring to a declaration that the leadership of a parliamentary party is vacant and open for contest.[2] A spill may involve all or some of the leadership positions (leader and deputy leader in both houses).[3] Where a rival to the existing leader calls for a spill it may also be called a leadership challenge.[2] When successful, it is often said that the former leader has been "rolled".[4][5] In Australian English the colloquial use of the word "spill" seems to have begun in the mid-1940s with the contest to replace Prime Minister John Curtin after his death on 5 July 1945.[6]
When a leadership vacancy arises due to the voluntary resignation or death of the incumbent, the resulting leadership ballot may not be popularly called a leadership spill.[7] For example, after the 1968 disappearance of Harold Holt, the four-candidate Liberal Party leadership ballot was not known as a leadership spill.[7] If the party in question is in government, the election of a new leader will result in a new Prime Minister, Premier or Chief Minister; if the party is the opposition, the election of a new leader will result in a new Opposition Leader.
There were 72 leadership spills between 1970 and 2015; the phenomenon became increasingly common in the early 21st century. None occurred in the 1960s, 10 in the 1970s, 18 in the 1980s, 13 in the 1990s, and 31 between 2000 and 2015.[8] Spills are three times more likely to occur when a party is in opposition compared to when it holds government.[8] The frequent leadership spills and political instability in the 21st century – which saw five changes of Prime Ministers between 2010 and 2018 – has led to Australia being dubbed "coup capital of the democratic world".[9][10][11]
Impact[edit]
Historically, a governing party's replacement of its leader fails to improve its electoral fortunes. Across state and federal politics between 1970 and 2014, over 90% of governing parties that replaced their leader lost their majority at the subsequent election.[17] The chances of success are higher when the party is in opposition, leading to success at the subsequent election about 50% of the time.[17]
In popular culture[edit]
An episode of the American TV series Madam Secretary, "The Common Defense", featured a fictional Australian Prime Minister and one of the main characters Jay Whitman (Sebastian Arcelus) commented that Australia throws Prime Ministers out like confetti. The episode was originally aired on March 24, 2019, and it is an allusion to the real life frequency of Prime Ministers between 2010 and 2018 as a result of leadership spills against the sitting Prime Minister, which caused there to be five Prime Ministers in just eight years (Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison).