Lambda-CDM model

The ΛCDM model includes an expansion of metric space that is well documented, both as the redshift of prominent spectral absorption or emission lines in the light from distant galaxies, and as the time dilation in the light decay of supernova luminosity curves. Both effects are attributed to a Doppler shift in electromagnetic radiation as it travels across expanding space. Although this expansion increases the distance between objects that are not under shared gravitational influence, it does not increase the size of the objects (e.g. galaxies) in space. It also allows for distant galaxies to recede from each other at speeds greater than the speed of light; local expansion is less than the speed of light, but expansion summed across great distances can collectively exceed the speed of light.^[7]


The letter Λ (lambda) represents the cosmological constant, which is associated with a vacuum energy or dark energy in empty space that is used to explain the contemporary accelerating expansion of space against the attractive effects of gravity. A cosmological constant has negative pressure, ${\displaystyle p=-\rho c^{2}}$, which contributes to the stress–energy tensor that, according to the general theory of relativity, causes accelerating expansion. The fraction of the total energy density of our (flat or almost flat) universe that is dark energy, ${\displaystyle \Omega _{\Lambda }}$, is estimated to be 0.669 ± 0.038 based on the 2018 Dark Energy Survey results using Type Ia supernovae^[8] or 0.6847±0.0073 based on the 2018 release of Planck satellite data, or more than 68.3 % (2018 estimate) of the mass–energy density of the universe.^[9]


Dark matter is postulated in order to account for gravitational effects observed in very large-scale structures (the "flat" rotation curves of galaxies; the gravitational lensing of light by galaxy clusters; and enhanced clustering of galaxies) that cannot be accounted for by the quantity of observed matter.^[10] The ΛCDM model proposes specifically cold dark matter, hypothesized as:


Dark matter constitutes about 26.5 %^[11] of the mass–energy density of the universe. The remaining 4.9 %^[11] comprises all ordinary matter observed as atoms, chemical elements, gas and plasma, the stuff of which visible planets, stars and galaxies are made. The great majority of ordinary matter in the universe is unseen, since visible stars and gas inside galaxies and clusters account for less than 10 % of the ordinary matter contribution to the mass–energy density of the universe.^[12]


The model includes a single originating event, the "Big Bang", which was not an explosion but the abrupt appearance of expanding spacetime containing radiation at temperatures of around 10¹⁵ K. This was immediately (within 10⁻²⁹ seconds) followed by an exponential expansion of space by a scale multiplier of 10²⁷ or more, known as cosmic inflation. The early universe remained hot (above 10 000 K) for several hundred thousand years, a state that is detectable as a residual cosmic microwave background, or CMB, a very low-energy radiation emanating from all parts of the sky. The "Big Bang" scenario, with cosmic inflation and standard particle physics, is the only cosmological model consistent with the observed continuing expansion of space, the observed distribution of lighter elements in the universe (hydrogen, helium, and lithium), and the spatial texture of minute irregularities (anisotropies) in the CMB radiation. Cosmic inflation also addresses the "horizon problem" in the CMB; indeed, it seems likely that the universe is larger than the observable particle horizon.


The model uses the Friedmann–Lemaître–Robertson–Walker metric, the Friedmann equations, and the cosmological equations of state to describe the observable universe from approximately 0.1 s to the present.^[1]: 605

Historical development[edit]

The discovery of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) in 1964 confirmed a key prediction of the Big Bang cosmology. From that point on, it was generally accepted that the universe started in a hot, dense state and has been expanding over time. The rate of expansion depends on the types of matter and energy present in the universe, and in particular, whether the total density is above or below the so-called critical density.


During the 1970s, most attention focused on pure-baryonic models, but there were serious challenges explaining the formation of galaxies, given the small anisotropies in the CMB (upper limits at that time). In the early 1980s, it was realized that this could be resolved if cold dark matter dominated over the baryons, and the theory of cosmic inflation motivated models with critical density.


During the 1980s, most research focused on cold dark matter with critical density in matter, around 95 % CDM and 5 % baryons: these showed success at forming galaxies and clusters of galaxies, but problems remained; notably, the model required a Hubble constant lower than preferred by observations, and observations around 1988–1990 showed more large-scale galaxy clustering than predicted.


These difficulties sharpened with the discovery of CMB anisotropy by the Cosmic Background Explorer in 1992, and several modified CDM models, including ΛCDM and mixed cold and hot dark matter, came under active consideration through the mid-1990s. The ΛCDM model then became the leading model following the observations of accelerating expansion in 1998, and was quickly supported by other observations: in 2000, the BOOMERanG microwave background experiment measured the total (matter–energy) density to be close to 100 % of critical, whereas in 2001 the 2dFGRS galaxy redshift survey measured the matter density to be near 25 %; the large difference between these values supports a positive Λ or dark energy. Much more precise spacecraft measurements of the microwave background from WMAP in 2003–2010 and Planck in 2013–2015 have continued to support the model and pin down the parameter values, most of which are constrained below 1 percent uncertainty.


Research is active into many aspects of the ΛCDM model, both to refine the parameters and to resolve the tensions between recent observations and the ΛCDM model, such as the Hubble tension and the CMB dipole.^[16] In addition, ΛCDM has no explicit physical theory for the origin or physical nature of dark matter or dark energy; the nearly scale-invariant spectrum of the CMB perturbations, and their image across the celestial sphere, are believed to result from very small thermal and acoustic irregularities at the point of recombination.


Historically, a large majority of astronomers and astrophysicists support the ΛCDM model or close relatives of it, but recent observations that contradict the ΛCDM model have led some astronomers and astrophysicists to search for alternatives to the ΛCDM model, which include dropping the Friedmann–Lemaître–Robertson–Walker metric or modifying dark energy.^[16][17] On the other hand, Milgrom, McGaugh, and Kroupa have long been leading critics of the ΛCDM model, attacking the dark matter portions of the theory from the perspective of galaxy formation models and supporting the alternative modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) theory, which requires a modification of the Einstein field equations and the Friedmann equations as seen in proposals such as modified gravity theory (MOG theory) or tensor–vector–scalar gravity theory (TeVeS theory). Other proposals by theoretical astrophysicists of cosmological alternatives to Einstein's general relativity that attempt to account for dark energy or dark matter include f(R) gravity, scalar–tensor theories such as galileon theories, brane cosmologies, the DGP model, and massive gravity and its extensions such as bimetric gravity.

Successes[edit]

In addition to explaining many pre-2000 observations, the model has made a number of successful predictions: notably the existence of the baryon acoustic oscillation feature, discovered in 2005 in the predicted location; and the statistics of weak gravitational lensing, first observed in 2000 by several teams. The polarization of the CMB, discovered in 2002 by DASI,^[18] has been successfully predicted by the model: in the 2015 Planck data release,^[19] there are seven observed peaks in the temperature (TT) power spectrum, six peaks in the temperature–polarization (TE) cross spectrum, and five peaks in the polarization (EE) spectrum. The six free parameters can be well constrained by the TT spectrum alone, and then the TE and EE spectra can be predicted theoretically to few-percent precision with no further adjustments allowed.