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Team B

Team B was a competitive analysis exercise commissioned by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to analyze threats the Soviet Union posed to the security of the United States. It was created, in part, due to a 1974 publication by Albert Wohlstetter, who accused the CIA of chronically underestimating Soviet military capability. Years of National Intelligence Estimates (NIE) that were later demonstrated to be very wrong were another motivating factor.

For the sub-group of AKB48, see Team B (AKB48).

President Gerald Ford began the Team B project in May 1976, inviting a group of outside experts to evaluate classified intelligence on the Soviet Union. Team B, approved by then-Director of Central Intelligence George H. W. Bush, was composed of "outside experts" who attempted to counter the arguments of intelligence officials within the CIA.[1] The intelligence community was in the process of putting together its own assessment at the same time.


Team B concluded that the NIE on the Soviet Union, compiled and produced annually by the CIA, chronically underestimated Soviet military power and misinterpreted Soviet strategic intentions. Its findings were leaked to the press shortly after Jimmy Carter's 1976 presidential election win in an attempt to appeal to staunch anticommunists in both parties and also not to appear partisan.[4][5] The Team B reports became the intellectual foundation for the idea of "the window of vulnerability" and of the massive arms buildup that began toward the end of the Carter administration and accelerated under President Ronald Reagan.[6]


Some scholars and policy-makers, including Anne Hessing Cahn of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, later criticized the Team B project's findings.[7][8] Many of these experts argued that the findings were grossly inaccurate.[9][10]

One studied Soviet low-altitude air defense capabilities,

Another examined Soviet (ICBM) accuracy, and

intercontinental ballistic missile

The third investigated Soviet strategic policy and objectives.

Office of Special Plans

(PDF). National Archives. [PDF file]

"Intelligence Community Experiment in Competitive Analysis- Soviet Strategic Objectives: Report of Team B"

Cahn, Anne H. (September 1998). Killing Detente: The Right Attacks the CIA. Pennsylvania State University Press.  0-271-01791-0. 3 Reviews Excerpts of the book Excerpt two

ISBN

Gervasi, Tom (October 1986). The Myth of Soviet Military Supremacy. W. W. Norton & Co.  0-393-01776-1. 2 Reviews

ISBN

Godson, Roy (1980). Intelligence Requirements for the 1980s: Analysis and Estimates. Transaction Publishers.  0-87855-827-6.

ISBN

Korb, Lawrence J. (August 18, 2004). . Center for American Progress. Archived from the original on 2006-10-01. Retrieved 2007-09-18.

"It's Time to Bench 'Team B'"

Goodman, Melvin A. (July 23, 2003). . The Progressive. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007.

"As a CIA analyst, I've seen distortions of intelligence before"

Husain, Khurram (November–December 2003). . Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 59 (6): 62–71. Bibcode:2003BuAtS..59f..62H. doi:10.2968/059006013. Archived from the original on 12 November 2004.

"Neocons: The men behind the curtain"

Prados, John (1982). The Soviet estimate: U.S. intelligence analysis & Russian military strength. . ISBN 0-385-27211-1. The problems of accurately gauging the extent of the Soviet nuclear buildup in the 1960s and the politics of the fictitious "missile gap". 2 reviews

Dial Press