2024 European Parliament election
The 2024 European Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 to 9 June 2024.[1] This will be the tenth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979, and the first European Parliament election after Brexit.[2][3] This election will also coincide with a number of other elections in the European Union.
Background[edit]
In the previous election held on 23–26 May 2019, the EPP Group and S&D suffered significant losses, while Renew, Greens/EFA and ID made substantial gains, with ECR and The Left had small reduction. The European People's Party, led by Manfred Weber as Commission President candidate, won the most seats in the European Parliament. Despite this, the European Council decided after the election to nominate Ursula von der Leyen as new Commission President, and the European Parliament elected von der Leyen with 383 votes (374 votes needed). The commission was then approved by the European Parliament on 27 November 2019, receiving 461 votes.
The 2019 election saw an increase in the turnout, when 50.7% of eligible voters had cast a vote compared with 42.5% of the 2014 election. This was the first time that the tournout had increased since the first European Parliament election in 1979.[4] In 2024, the Eurobarometer data shows that 71% of Europeans say they are likely to vote in June, 10% higher than those who said they would in 2019.[5]
The election is expected to be one of the more contentious elections in the history of the European Parliament given the rise of right-wing parties in polling.[6] Since the last European-wide election, the right has continued to rise across Europe with right-wing populist parties holding political power in Hungary (Fidesz), Italy (Brothers of Italy), Sweden (Sweden Democrats), Finland (Finns Party) and Slovakia (Slovak National Party) in 2024.[7] The centre-right EPP has "raised eyebrows" among some commentators for its efforts to charm parties in the ECR to create a broad conservative block,[8] which could upset the long-standing status-quo that has seen the EPP share power with the centre-left S&D and the centrist Renew Group.[9]
Lead candidates[edit]
Spitzenkandidat system[edit]
In the run-up to the 2014 European Parliament elections a new informal system was unveiled for the selection of the European Commission President dictating that whichever party group gained the most seats would see their lead candidate become President of the Commission.[60] In 2014, the candidate of the largest group, Jean-Claude Juncker, was eventually nominated and elected as Commission President.[61] European party leaders aimed to reintroduce the system in 2019, with them selecting lead candidates and organizing a televised debate between those candidates.[62] In the aftermath of the election German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen was chosen as Commission President, even though she had not been a candidate prior to the election, while Manfred Weber, lead candidate for the EPP, which had gained the most seats, was not nominated.[63] Following the non-application of the system in 2019, some have called for the system to be revived in the upcoming elections.[64][65][66]
The EPP,[67] PES,[68] EGP,[69] and PEL[70] announced their intensions to nominate a main candidate in 2024, while ECR and ID rejected doing so.[71]
Campaign[edit]
The future of Ursula von der Leyen[edit]
Prior to the elections, the future of Ursula von der Leyen, the current European Commission President, was uncertain. Although Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz has hinted he would support von der Leyen should she choose to run for the position again,[104] his coalition government has also agreed to support the spitzenkandidat system.[105] This poses a challenge to von der Leyen's candidacy as this gives room to Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People's Party in the European Parliament, and fellow German CDU/CSU member, to propose alternative candidates, such as President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. Another option was for von der Leyen to run in the election for the Parliament to secure the support of her party.[106][107] But this was ruled out in September 2023.[108] She has been supported for a second term by the Leader of the Christian Democratic Union Friedrich Merz.[109]
On 19 February 2024, von der Leyen announced her intention to seek a second term.[75] On 7 March von der Leyen was elected European People's Party presidential candidate with 400 votes in favour, 89 against and 10 blank, out of the 737 EPP congressional delegates.[110] The German government coalition agreement grants the right to nominate the next German EU Commissioner to the Greens, provided the Commission President is not from Germany.[111]
The future of Charles Michel[edit]
In January 2024, Charles Michel announced he would step down as president of the European Council to run for the European Parliament instead.[112] This means European Union leaders would potentially discuss his successor in the summer.[113] If elected to the European Parliament he would have had to step down anyway because of the dual mandate.[114] His mandate had been to set to expire in November 2024.[115] For this unanticipated decision Michel was criticised by EU officials and diplomats.[116] He was criticised by his political ally Sophie in 't Veld who questioned his "credibility".[117] This timing was reportedly set to mitigate potential disruptions from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country would be scheduled to take over the rotating presidency of the European Council on 1 July.[118] On 26 January 2024, Michel withdrew his candidacy and thus delayed his departure.[119]
Controversies[edit]
Conflict with Portuguese national holiday[edit]
The dates chosen for the elections conflict with a long weekend in Portugal, where Portugal Day, a national holiday, is celebrated on 10 June, which is expected to suppress turnout.[133] Despite an attempt by Portuguese leaders to find a compromise, no change was made to the default date of 6–9 June,[134] which required unanimity to be changed.
Qatargate[edit]
The ongoing Qatargate corruption scandal, which began in December 2022, has destabilized the European Parliament following the arrest of several MEPs including Marc Tarabella; Andrea Cozzolino and Eva Kaili which was stripped of her vice presidency. Other suspects in the case include Francesco Giorgi, the parliamentary assistant of MEP Andrea Cozzolino, Pier Antonio Panzeri, founder of the Fight Impunity NGO; Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, head of the No Peace Without Justice NGO; and Luca Visentini, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.[135][136]
Hungary[edit]
A majority of European Parliament MEPs voted for a nonbinding resolution demanding that the European Commission considers that Hungary be stripped of its EU voting rights.[137] The European Parliament views Hungary as a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" since 2022 and considers Hungary according to Article 7.1 of the Treaty on European Union in clear risk of a serious breach of the Treaty on European Union.[138][139]
Greece[edit]
At the beginning of March 2024, Greeks living abroad received a promotional email from MEP and New Democracy candidate Anna-Michelle Assimakopoulou, which triggered a wave of criticism that the law on the protection of personal data had been violated and that data on postal voters had been illegally passed on by the Ministry of the Interior.[140]
Russia Gate[edit]
On 27 March, the Czech Republic sanctioned the news site Voice of Europe, claiming that the site is part of a network for pro-Russian influence.[141] The following day, Belgian Prime Minister De Croo, referring to the sanctions during a debate in the Belgian parliament, said that Russia had targeted MEPs, but also paid them.[142] On 2 April, the Czech news portal Denik N reported, citing several ministers, that there are audio recordings of the German far-right politician Petr Bystron (MP, AfD) that incriminate him of having accepted money.[143] On 12 April, it became known that the Belgian public prosecutor's office is investigating whether European politicians were paid to spread Russian propaganda. In addition to Bystron, the investigation is also targeting Dutch MEP Marcel de Graaff (FvD) and German MEP Maximilian Krah (AfD). The Ukrainian politician and businessman Viktor Medvedchuk, who is close to Russian President Putin, is believed to be the man behind Voice of Europe.[144]