AI boom
The AI boom,[1][2] or AI spring,[3][4] is an ongoing period of rapid progress in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) that started in the late 2010s. Known examples include protein folding prediction led by Google DeepMind and generative AI led by OpenAI.
History[edit]
In 2012, a University of Toronto research team used artificial neural networks and deep learning techniques to lower the error rate below 25% for the first time during the ImageNet challenge for object recognition in computer vision. The event catalyzed the AI boom later that decade, when many alumni of the ImageNet challenge became leaders in the tech industry.[5][6] The generative AI race began in earnest in 2016 or 2017 following the founding of OpenAI and earlier advances made in graphical processing units (GPUs), the amount and quality of training data, generative adversarial networks, diffusion models and transformer architectures.[7][8] In 2018, the Artificial Intelligence Index, an initiative from Stanford University, reported a global explosion of commercial and research efforts in AI. Europe published the largest number of papers in the field that year, followed by China and North America.[9] Technologies such as AlphaFold led to more accurate predictions of protein folding and improved the process of drug development.[10] Economists and lawmakers began to discuss the potential impact of AI more frequently.[11][12] By 2022, large language models (LLMs) saw increased usage in chatbot applications; text-to-image-models could generate images that appeared to be human-made;[13] and speech synthesis software was able to replicate human speech efficiently.[14]
According to metrics from 2017 to 2021, the United States outranks the rest of the world in terms of venture capital funding, the number of startups, and patents granted in AI.[15][16] Scientists who have immigrated to the U.S. play an outsize role in the country's development of AI technology.[17][18] Many of them were educated in China, prompting debates about national security concerns amid worsening relations between the two countries.[19]
Experts have framed AI development as a competition for economic and geopolitical advantage between the United States and China.[20] In 2021, an analyst for the Council on Foreign Relations outlined ways that the U.S. could maintain its position amid progress made by China.[21][22] In 2023, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies advocated for the U.S. to use its dominance in AI technology to drive its foreign policy instead of relying on trade agreements.[15]
Concerns[edit]
AI has the potential to be applied in various fields, including in education,[88] healthcare,[89] and transportation. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has stated that AI "will be the most tremendous leap forward in quality of life for people that we've had", an aspect that "somehow gets lost from the discussion".[90] But as a dual-use technology, AI also carries risks of misuse by malicious actors. Numerous safety concerns have been expressed.[91] AI is expected by researchers of the Center for AI Safety to improve the "accessibility, success rate, scale, speed, stealth and potency of cyberattacks", potentially causing "significant geopolitical turbulence" if it reinforces attack more than defense.[91][92] Concerns have been raised about the potential capability of future AI systems to engineer particularly lethal and contagious pathogens.[93][94] The ability to generate convincing, personalized messages as well as realistic images may facilitate large-scale misinformation, manipulation, and propaganda.[95] Industry leaders have further warned in the statement on AI risk of extinction that humanity might irreversibly lose control over a sufficiently advanced artificial general intelligence.[96]
Rapid progress in artificial intelligence has also sparked interest in whether some future AI systems will be sentient or otherwise worthy of moral consideration,[97] and whether they should be granted rights.[98]
The AI boom is said to have started an arms race in which large companies are competing against each other to have the most powerful AI model on the market, with speed and profit prioritized over safety and user protection.[99][100] Large language models have been criticized for reproducing biases inherited from their training data, including discriminatory biases related to ethnicity or gender.[101] As AI becomes more sophisticated, it may eventually become cheaper and more efficient than human workers, which could cause technological unemployment and a transition period of economic turmoil.[102][11] Public reaction to the AI boom has been mixed, with some hailing the new possibilities that AI creates, its sophistication and potential for benefiting humanity;[103][104] while others denounced it for threatening job security,[105][106] and for giving 'uncanny' or flawed responses.[107]
The perceived race mindset among major AI companies like OpenAI, Google or Meta may potentially increase the risks associated with the development of artificial general intelligence.[99] While competition can foster innovation and progress, an intense race to outperform rivals may encourage the prioritization of short-term gains over long-term safety.[108]
Several incidents involving sharing of non-consensual deepfake pornography have occurred. In late January 2024, deepfake images of American musician Taylor Swift proliferated. Several experts have warned that deepfake pornography is more quickly created and disseminated, due to the relative ease of using the technology.[109] Canada introduced federal legislation targeting sharing of non-consensual sexually explicit AI-generated photos; most provinces already had such laws.[110] In the United States, the DEFIANCE Act was introduced in March 2024.[111]