AUKUS
AUKUS (/ˈɔːkəs/ AW-kəs), also styled as Aukus, is a trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Announced on 15 September 2021,[1][2] the partnership involves the US and the UK assisting Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.[3] The partnership also includes cooperation on advanced cyber mechanisms, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic, electronic warfare, innovation and information sharing.[3][4] The partnership will focus on military capability, distinguishing it from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance that also includes New Zealand and Canada.[5]
Abbreviation
AUKUS
15 September 2021
Military technology partnership
The International Centre for Defence and Security called the partnership "a powerful statement about the priority of the Indo-Pacific" and as a statement "that the larger institutional groupings aren't acting with the common purpose and speed that the current strategic and technological environment demands".[6] The US Ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy called the partnership a "greater and deeper partnership" between the countries and said that it would provide a "lot of deterrence" in the Indo-Pacific.[7] The government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) said the partnership risked "severely damaging regional peace" and had a "cold-war mentality",[8] as the partnership was widely seen as being, at least in part, a response to China's status as an increasingly assertive emerging superpower.[9]
The creation of the partnership spelled the end of a French–Australian submarine deal. On 17 September 2021, France recalled its ambassadors from Australia and the US; French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called the partnership a "stab in the back"[10] following Australia's cancellation of the deal worth €56 billion (A$90 billion) without notice,[11][12][13] ending recent efforts to develop a deeper strategic partnership between France and Australia.[14][15][16] Following the ousting of Scott Morrison's government after the 2022 Australian federal election, the new Labor government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese agreed to a €555 million (US$584 million) settlement with French defence contractor Naval Group. In response, French defence minister Lecornu said that France aims to rebuild its relationship with Australia. In addition, Albanese announced plans to travel to France to reset bilateral relations between the two countries.[17][18]
Expansion[edit]
Japan[edit]
Since the announcement of "Pillar II" of AUKUS, there has been persistent speculation that Japan will eventually join the partnership; American Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel wrote that Japan was "about to become the first additional Pillar II partner" in The Wall Street Journal on 3 April 2024.[111][112] On 7 April 2024, the Financial Times reported that AUKUS defence ministers will announce on 8 April 2024 that they will launch talks related to the expansion of Pillar II of the alliance.[113] While many officials in the US government advocate the inclusion of Japan in AUKUS, notably Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, there has been push back for months from the UK and Australia partly in order to focus on ironing out existing complications in AUKUS, however primarily over concerns that Japan lacks the security systems required to protect highly sensitive information.[113][114]
New Zealand[edit]
New Zealand has agreed to officially explore the potential benefits of joining Pillar 2.[115] In March 2023, New Zealand's defence minister Andrew Little said New Zealand had been offered the opportunity to discuss joining AUKUS for the non-submarine co-operation areas. New Zealand has indicated it was "willing to explore" the proposal.[116][117] In July 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told New Zealand reporters that the “door is open” for New Zealand, as well as other countries, to join the security partnership.[118][119] In December 2023, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said that New Zealand was open to joining the non-nuclear pillar of the AUKUS agreement during a state visit to Australia.[120]
In February 2024, Australia agreed to brief New Zealand on Pillar 2 developments following a joint bilateral meeting between Australian and New Zealand foreign and defence ministers in Melbourne. Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed that Australia would send officials to brief their New Zealand counterparts on Pillar 2.[121][122] The four ministers also issued a joint statement expressing concerns about human rights violations in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong.[123] In response to the joint Australian-NZ bilateral meeting, the Chinese Embassy in Wellington issued a statement deploring critical statements about China's internal affairs and describing AUKUS as "counter to the letter and spirit of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime."[124][123] On 12 February, the New Zealand Labour Party also reversed its previous support for the Pillar Two component of AUKUS, with associate foreign spokesperson Phil Twyford describing AUKUS as an "offensive warfighting alliance against China."[125] Similar sentiments were echoed by former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark, who expressed concern that the National-led coalition government was shifting New Zealand foreign policy away from a bipartisan nuclear free policy and getting the country drawn into geopolitical games.[126]
Others[edit]
The following non-participating nations were also subject to media speculation about potentially joining:
Nuclear proliferation concerns[edit]
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty allows non-nuclear-weapon states to produce the highly enriched uranium for naval reactor fuel.[64] Nevertheless, the agreement to transfer US or UK nuclear submarine technology including possibly highly enriched uranium has been described as an act of nuclear proliferation,[131][132] and has been criticised by scholars and politicians.[132][133][134] In the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, scholar Sébastien Philippe criticised AUKUS and wrote "we can now expect the proliferation of very sensitive military nuclear technology in the coming years, with literally tons of new nuclear materials under loose or no international safeguards."[132] James M. Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote that "the nonproliferation implications of the AUKUS submarine deal are both negative and serious. For Australia to operate nuclear-powered submarines, it will have to become the first non-nuclear-weapon state to exercise a loophole that allows it to remove nuclear material from the inspection system of the International Atomic Energy Agency. I have no real concerns that Australia will misuse this material itself, but I am concerned that this removal will set a damaging precedent. In the future, would-be proliferators could use naval reactor programs as cover for the development of nuclear weapons."[135]
Australia and Brazil[136][137][note 4] would be the first countries without nuclear weapons to have nuclear-powered submarines. Concerns were raised that this may lead to increased risk of arms proliferation if other countries follow the same approach because it would involve other countries enriching uranium for naval reactors, potentially creating more avenues to develop material needed for nuclear weapons without the safeguards provided by regular inspections.[72] This would not apply in the case of Brazil because the reactor will use low enriched uranium at 7% concentration.[138] 20% is the minimum level required to make a nuclear weapon.[64]
International responses[edit]
Japan[edit]
On 12 April 2022, Sankei Shimbun reported that the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia were inquiring about Japan's participation in the security framework of AUKUS. The newspaper added that the aim of said negotiations was related to the incorporation of Japanese hypersonic weapon development and the strengthening of electronic warfare capabilities.[156]
Prior to this, in November 2021, former prime minister Shinzo Abe in a virtual address to the Sydney Dialogue, welcomed the creation of AUKUS in the midst of an increasingly severe security environment, and called for greater Japan-AUKUS cooperation and integration concerning artificial intelligence and cyberwarfare capabilities.[157][158][159]
The US denied inviting Japan into the security alliance, with Jen Psaki stating that Sankei Shimbun's report was "inaccurate".[160]
This was followed up by a refutation from Hirokazu Matsuno, the Japanese chief cabinet secretary.[161][162] On 10 December 2022, Australia's Minister for Defence announced their desire for Japan to join the partnership.[163]
On 14 March 2023, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio expressed his support for Australia's planned acquisition of US-made nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS partnership.[164]
France[edit]
The French government received official notification from Australia that the Attack-class submarine project was to be cancelled only a few hours before it was publicly announced.[165][20] Le Monde reported that the original cost of the project in 2016 was €35 billion of which €8 billion (A$12 billion) was to go to French companies.[166][167] The project was reportedly going to employ 4,000 people in France over six years at Naval Group and its 200 subcontractors.[167] The French government was angered by both the cancellation of the Attack-class submarine project and not being made aware of the negotiations that led to the AUKUS agreement.[168] In a joint statement, French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and armed forces minister Florence Parly expressed disappointment at Australia's decision to abandon their joint submarine program with France.[169][10]
Le Drian further stated in a radio interview that the contract termination was a "stab in the back".[10] On 17 September, France recalled its ambassadors from Australia and the US, Jean-Pierre Thébault and Philippe Étienne respectively.[13] Despite tension in the past, France had never before withdrawn its ambassador to the United States.[170] In a statement, Le Drian said that the "exceptional decision is justified by the exceptional gravity of the [AUKUS] announcements" and that the snap cancellation of the submarine contract "constitute[d] unacceptable behaviour between allies and partners".[13] French president Emmanuel Macron has not commented but is reported to have been "furious" about the turn of events. In response to questions about the Australia-EU trade deal currently being negotiated, French Secretary of State for European Affairs Clément Beaune stated that he doesn't see how France can trust Australia.[171] Arnaud Danjean, a French MEP, said that "Australians can expect more than a delay in concluding the Free Trade Agreement with the EU".[171] French Lowy Institute policy analyst Hervé Lemahieu said the diplomatic damage from the cancellation will take years to repair and leave a lasting legacy of mistrust".[13] After a call between the French and US presidents, the French ambassador returned to the US on 30 September.[154][172]
Beaune described the United Kingdom as a junior partner and vassal of the United States due to the partnership, saying in an interview: "Our British friends explained to us they were leaving the EU to create Global Britain. We can see that this is a return into the American lap and a form of accepted vassalisation."[173] Le Drian stated that "We have recalled our ambassadors to [Canberra and Washington] to re-evaluate the situation. With Britain, there is no need. We know their constant opportunism. So there is no need to bring our ambassador back to explain."[174] A Franco-British defence summit was cancelled.[175]
Some opposition politicians in France, such as Xavier Bertrand, Jordan Bardella, and Fabien Roussel, criticised the French government and demanded that France leave NATO, with Christian Jacob as well as demanding a parliamentary inquiry.[176][177]
A foreign ministers meeting between France, Germany, the UK, and the US had been postponed, and a ministerial meeting between Australia, France, and India was cancelled.[178][179] France however, contacted India to talk about strengthening their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.[180] France's foreign commerce minister declined a meeting with his Australian counterpart.[181]
French president Macron said that Europe needs to stop being naïve when it comes to defending its interests and build its own military capacity.[182]
Following the ousting of Scott Morrison's government after the 2022 Australian federal election, the new Labor government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese agreed to a €555 million (US$584 million) settlement with French defence contractor Naval Group. In response, French defence minister Lecornu said that France aims to rebuild its relationship with Australia. In addition, Albanese announced plans to travel to France to reset bilateral relations between the two countries.[17][18]
China[edit]
The People's Republic of China (PRC)'s foreign affairs department spokesperson Zhao Lijian said, "The nuclear submarine cooperation between the US, the UK, and Australia has seriously undermined regional peace and stability, intensified the arms race and undermined international non-proliferation efforts".[183] Zhao also said "The three countries should discard the Cold War zero-sum mentality and narrow geopolitical perspective".[184] Spokesperson Hua Chunying said "China is firmly opposed to the US, the UK and Australia's malicious exploitation of loopholes in the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty and the International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards mechanism".[185]
The Chinese Communist Party-owned tabloid Global Times, which is known for being more aggressive than official government statements, denounced Australia and said it had "turned itself into an adversary of China" and warned that Australia could be targeted by China as a warning to other countries if it acted "with bravado" in alliance with the US, or by being "militarily assertive".[144] It further told Australia to avoid "provocation" or else China would "certainly punish it with no mercy",[54] and concluded "Thus, Australian troops are also most likely to be the first batch of western soldiers to waste their lives in the South China Sea".[144]
A Chinese Communist Party official, Victor Gao — former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping and vice president of a Beijing think tank, the Center for China and Globalization — considered the move to be a violation of international law and warned that Australia's moves towards nuclear-powered submarines would lead to the country "being targeted with nuclear weapons", in a future nuclear war.[186]
The PRC ambassador to France Lu Shaye urged the new alliance to fulfill their nuclear non proliferation obligations and said Asia-Pacific needs jobs, not submarines, and urged France to boost cooperation.[187][188]