Blue wall (U.S. politics)
The "Blue wall" is a term used by political pundits to refer to eighteen U.S. states and the District of Columbia that the Democratic Party won in each presidential election from 1992 to 2012. George W. Bush, the only Republican president elected during this time, was able to narrowly win the electoral college in 2000 (271) and 2004 (286) only by winning enough states outside of the blue wall, to defeat his Democratic opponents, Al Gore and John Kerry, respectively.
During the 2016 presidential election, many political pundits speculated that the "blue wall" made Hillary Clinton a heavy favorite to win the electoral college.[1][2] However, Republican nominee Donald Trump was able to achieve narrow victories in the three blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as an electoral college vote from Maine, a fourth blue wall state. He was consequently elected president with 306 electoral college votes (excluding two faithless electors).
In the 2020 United States presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden defeated President Trump by reclaiming Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania for his party.[3] Trump's lone breakthrough in the "blue wall" in 2020 was the one electoral vote from Maine, which he again won. Coincidentally, Biden won 306 electors, the same number Trump did in 2016.[4]
The term "red wall", or "red sea", is less commonly used to refer to states that Republicans have consistently won in previous election cycles; however, most of these states represent significantly fewer electoral college votes than the blue wall. These terms refer to the colors that have become associated with the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, in the 21st century.
States behind the blue wall[edit]
Behind this "blue wall" lay states, many carrying a relatively high number of electoral votes, which appeared to be solidly behind the Democratic Party, at least on the national level, and which a Republican presidential candidate appeared likely to have to write off, seeking a total of 270 electoral votes from other regions. States behind this wall lay generally in the Northeastern United States, and the West Coast of the United States, and included some of the Great Lakes states. In each of the six presidential election cycles prior to 2016, the Democratic Party had won 18 of these states (as well as the District of Columbia), totaling 238 of the necessary 270 votes need to win. The "big three" Democratic stronghold states include California, New York, and Illinois.
States falling behind this blue wall generally included those the Democrats had carried since the 1992 presidential election until the 2016 presidential election[6][9] that included (in order of decreasing population and followed by current number of electoral votes): California (54), New York (28), Illinois (19), Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), New Jersey (14), Washington (12), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Oregon (8), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), and Vermont (3), as well as Washington, D.C. (3); this is a total of 238 votes. Had Al Gore won New Hampshire (4) in 2000 and if John Kerry had won both New Mexico (5) and Iowa (7) in 2004, all three of those states would also have become part of the blue wall states since 1992. The last time any of these states cast their votes for the Republican presidential candidate before 2016 was when George H. W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis in 1988 and carried California, Illinois, Pennsylvania[a], Michigan[b], New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, and Vermont. The last time any of New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Wisconsin[c], Oregon, Hawaii, and Rhode Island cast their votes for the Republican presidential candidate before 2016 was when Ronald Reagan was reelected in a landslide in 1984. One of these states, Minnesota, has not been carried by a Republican presidential candidate since the 1972 landslide reelection of Richard Nixon. The District of Columbia has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since it was admitted to the electoral college for the 1964 election.
2020: Resurgence of the blue wall[edit]
During the 2020 United States presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, Biden carried these states only by 0.5–3 point margins, a considerable underperformance compared to Obama's margins in these states in 2008 and 2012. Long-term trends seem less favorable to Democrats in these states as they all voted to the right of the national average and many working-class white voters there have been moving towards the Republicans.[13][14]
Biden also broke into the red wall/sea by winning Arizona, Georgia, and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska.[15][16][17] However, Maine's 2nd congressional district voted for Donald Trump. Pundits saw former battleground states such as Colorado and Virginia becoming solidly Democratic-leaning after the 2020 election, partially as a result of demographic patterns. Biden won both of these states by more than 10% in 2020.[14]