Oil depletion
Oil depletion is the decline in oil production of a well, oil field, or geographic area.[1] The Hubbert peak theory makes predictions of production rates based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates. Hubbert curves predict that the production curves of non-renewing resources approximate a bell curve. Thus, according to this theory, when the peak of production is passed, production rates enter an irreversible decline.[2][3]
For other uses, see Depletion (disambiguation).The United States Energy Information Administration predicted in 2006 that world consumption of oil will increase to 98.3 million barrels per day (15,630,000 m3/d) (mbd) in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030.[4] With 2009 world oil consumption at 84.4 mbd,[5] reaching the projected 2015 level of consumption would represent an average annual increase between 2009 and 2015 of 2.7% per year.
Texas oil field production decline curve
Alaska oil production decline curve
Historical US crude oil production showing initial similarity to a Hubbert curve
Individual oil well decline curve generated by decline curve analysis software, utilized in petroleum economics to indicate the depletion of oil & gas in a Petroleum reservoir. The Y axis is a log scale. Oil production (green line), and gas production (red line).
Although US proved oil reserves grew by 3.8 billion barrels in 2011, even after deducting 2.07 billion barrels of production, only 8 percent of the 5.84 billion barrels of the newly booked oil was due to new field discoveries (US EIA)
Replacement[edit]
An alternative considered likely by some is that oil will be replaced with renewable energy during the first half of the 21st century.[24] The replacement fuel would likely be hydrogen. A hydrogen economy would then replace the current oil-based economy. Another possible replacement fuel is biogas, which is composed of methane. Methane has a boiling point of −161 °C, rather than hydrogen's -252.87 °C, making methane a much easier fuel to condense.
Other people consider that the whole idea of "the hydrogen economy" is flawed. Compressed hydrogen has an energy density of only 5.6 megajoules per liter. Robert Zubrin looks at the practical problems of using hydrogen as an energy storage medium in Energy Victory: Winning the War on Terror by Breaking Free of Oil.[25] He considers that hydrogen is a very poor form of storage, and that batteries, methanol or dimethyl ether would be better. This point is reiterated in Beyond Oil and Gas: The Methanol Economy[26] and in David MacKay's book described below.
Geothermal power is one source of sustainable energy that can produce hydrogen. Note that David MacKay has shown in his book Sustainable Energy: Without the Hot Air[27] that geothermal can only provide a tiny fraction of the world's needs sustainably. In some areas located over geological hotspots (such as Iceland), geothermal makes more sense.
Solar energy is a source of inexhaustible energy. There is more solar energy that reaches the surface of the Earth each hour than the amount of energy consumed by the world in a year.[28] The challenges of using the sun's energy – energy which can be obtained either from wind power or from solar power – is that the energy needs to either be (1) stored in physical form of fuel for when it can be used in the future, or (2) transported directly as electricity, through transmission lines. Neither is dispatchable, as there is no control over when the sun will shine or when the wind will blow. There are, however, concentrated solar power plants using thermal storage that can store energy efficiently for up to 24 hours.
Nuclear fusion could replace oil on a global and gradual scale; since the announcement of the first net energy gain in a nuclear fusion reaction by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on December 13, 2022,[29] a race to develop the nascent technology started, Microsoft was the first company to close a contract for the supply of energy from nuclear fusion with the company Helion Energy,[30] companies in the sector accumulate investments of US$ 5 billion, and although there is no energy production plant, the sector is confident, especially in recent years, of delivering abundant and cheaper energy by 2040, with some more optimists believing that it will be available by the end of the decade, the holy grail of energy can play a decisive role in the future of oil in the world and its aftermath decline as a source of energy for human activity.
Oil Education Television: Series of video interviews with leading international oil experts: http://oileducation.tv Archived 2016-01-11 at the Wayback Machine, https://www.youtube.com/oileducationtv