Self-fulfilling prophecy
A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's belief or expectation that the prediction would come true.[1] In the phenomena, people tend to act the way they have been expected to make the expectations come true.[2] Self-fulfilling prophecies are an example of the more general phenomenon of positive feedback loops. A self-fulfilling prophecy can have either negative or positive outcomes. Merely applying a label to someone or something can affect the perception of the person/thing and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.[3] Interpersonal communication plays a significant role in establishing these phenomena as well as impacting the labeling process.[4]
American sociologists W. I. Thomas and Dorothy Swaine Thomas were the first Western scholars to investigate this phenomenon. In 1928, they developed the Thomas theorem (also known as the Thomas dictum): "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."[5] Another American sociologist, Robert K. Merton, continued the research, and is credited with coining the term "self-fulfilling prophecy" and popularizing the idea that "a belief or expectation, correct or incorrect, could bring about a desired or expected outcome."[1][6] The works of philosophers Karl Popper and Alan Gerwith also contributed to the idea.[7]
Stereotype[edit]
Self-fulfilling prophecies are one of the main contributions to racial prejudice and vice versa. According to the Dictionary of Race, Ethnicity & Culture, "Self-fulfilling prophecy makes it possible to highlight the tragic vicious circle which victimizes people twice: first, because the victim is stigmatized with an inherent negative quality; and secondly, because he or she is prevented from disproving this quality."[33] An example is given where white workers expected that black people would be against the principles of trade unionism because they considered black workers to be "undisciplined in traditions of trade unionism and the art of collective bargain-ing."[34] Due to this belief, black workers were not hired at white-owned businesses, which made black workers unable to learn the principles of trade unionism, and thus prevented them from unionizing.
Teachers can encourage stereotype-based courses and can interact with students in a manner that encourages self-fulfilling thoughts: for example, female students may seem to be bad at math if teachers never encouraged them to improve their mathematical abilities.[35]
The term "self-fulfilling prophecy" made its first appearance in educational literature in the 1960s, when African-American psychologist Kenneth B. Clark studied the responses of black children to black and white dolls.[3] The responses from Clark's study ranged from some children calling the black doll ugly to one girl bursting into tears when prompted to pick the doll she identified with. The black children internalized the inferiority they learned and acted accordingly. Clark, whose work pushed the Supreme Court to desegregate schools, noted the influence of teachers on the achievement levels between Black and White students. This prompted Clark to begin a study in ten inner-city schools where he assessed the attitudes and behaviors of teachers. The belief held by teachers was that minority students were unintelligent, and therefore the teachers put no effort into teaching them. This led to a feedback loop of those students not being educated, and thus being perceived as unintelligent.
Sports[edit]
Robert Barnsley showed that in an elite group of ice hockey players, 40% are born between January and March, as opposed to the approximately 25% as would be predicted by statistics, which could be explained by the relative age effect leading to selected players being exposed to higher levels of coaching, playing more games, and having better teammates. These factors make them the best players, fulfilling the prophecy, while the real selection criterion was age.[46]
The same relative age effect has been noticed in football,[47] baseball,[48] basketball,[49] handball,[50] tennis[51] and many other sports.
Some researchers from 2008 found that in basketball, the head coaches gave more biased feedback while the assistant coaches gave more critical feedback. They predicted this was due to the external expectations from the coaches to the athletes which could have resulted in the Pygmalion effect with positive and negative results.[52]
Researcher Helen Brown published findings of two experiments performed on athletes, investigating the effect that the media has on them, and concluded that the athlete's performance was impacted by and aligned with expectations of their performance.[53] A follow-up experiment in London found that such expectations can impact their judgement and thought processes, and can even have a dangerous and destructive impact on some athletes.[53]