The Singularity Is Near
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a 2005 non-fiction book about artificial intelligence and the future of humanity by inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil. A sequel book, The Singularity Is Nearer, is scheduled to be released on June 25, 2024.[1]
Author
English
Viking
September 2005
United States
652
153.9
QP376 .K85
The book builds on the ideas introduced in Kurzweil's previous books, The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990) and The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999). In the book, Kurzweil embraces the term "the singularity", which was popularized by Vernor Vinge in his 1993 essay "The Coming Technological Singularity."[2]
Kurzweil describes his law of accelerating returns which predicts an exponential increase in technologies like computers, genetics, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence. Once the singularity has been reached, Kurzweil says that machine intelligence will be infinitely more powerful than all human intelligence combined. The singularity is also the point at which machines' intelligence and humans would merge; Kurzweil predicts this date: "I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045".[3]
Content[edit]
Exponential growth[edit]
Kurzweil characterizes evolution throughout all time as progressing through six epochs, each one building on the one before. He says the four epochs which have occurred so far are Physics and Chemistry, Biology and DNA, Brains, and Technology. Kurzweil predicts the singularity will coincide with the next epoch, The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence. After the singularity he says the final epoch will occur, The Universe Wakes Up.[4]
Kurzweil explains that evolutionary progress is exponential because of positive feedback; the results of one stage are used to create the next stage. Exponential growth is deceptive, nearly flat at first until it hits what Kurzweil calls "the knee in the curve" then rises almost vertically.[5] In fact Kurzweil believes evolutionary progress is super-exponential because more resources are deployed to the winning process. As an example of super-exponential growth Kurzweil cites the computer chip business. The overall budget for the whole industry increases over time, since the fruits of exponential growth make it an attractive investment; meanwhile the additional budget fuels more innovation which makes the industry grow even faster, effectively an example of "double" exponential growth.[6]
Kurzweil dictates evolutionary progress looks smooth, but that really it is divided into paradigms, specific methods of solving problems. Each paradigm starts with slow growth, builds to rapid growth, and then levels off. As one paradigm levels off, pressure builds to find or develop a new paradigm. So what looks like a single smooth curve is really series of smaller S curves.[7] For example, Kurzweil notes that when vacuum tubes stopped getting faster, cheaper transistors became popular and continued the overall exponential growth.[8]
Kurzweil calls this exponential growth the law of accelerating returns, and he believes it applies to many human-created technologies such as computer memory, transistors, microprocessors, DNA sequencing, magnetic storage, the number of Internet hosts, Internet traffic, decrease in device size, and nanotech citations and patents.[9] Kurzweil cites two historical examples of exponential growth: the Human Genome Project and the growth of the Internet.[10] Kurzweil claims the whole world economy is in fact growing exponentially, although short term booms and busts tend to hide this trend.[11]
Predictions[edit]
Kurzweil does not include an actual written timeline of the past and future, as he did in The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machines, however he still makes many specific predictions. Kurzweil writes that by 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence[39] and "by around 2020" this same capacity will be available "for one thousand dollars".[13] After that milestone he expects human brain scanning to contribute to an effective model of human intelligence "by the mid-2020s".[39] These two elements will culminate in computers that can pass the Turing test by 2029.[40] By the early 2030s the amount of non-biological computation will exceed the "capacity of all living biological human intelligence".[41] Finally the exponential growth in computing capacity will lead to the singularity. Kurzweil spells out the date very clearly: "I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045".[3]
Reception[edit]
Analysis[edit]
A common criticism of the book relates to the "exponential growth fallacy". As an example, in 1969, humans landed on the moon. Extrapolating exponential growth from there one would expect huge lunar bases and crewed missions to distant planets. Instead, exploration stalled or even regressed after that. Paul Davies writes "the key point about exponential growth is that it never lasts"[42] often due to resource constraints. On the other hand, it has been shown that the global acceleration until recently followed a hyperbolic rather than exponential pattern.[43]
Theodore Modis says "nothing in nature follows a pure exponential" and suggests the logistic function is a better fit for "a real growth process". The logistic function looks like an exponential at first but then tapers off and flattens completely. For example, world population and the United States's oil production both appeared to be rising exponentially, but both have leveled off because they were logistic. Kurzweil says "the knee in the curve" is the time when the exponential trend is going to explode, while Modis claims if the process is logistic when you hit the "knee" the quantity you are measuring is only going to increase by a factor of 100 more.[44]
While some critics complain that the law of accelerating returns is not a law of nature[42] others question the religious motivations or implications of Kurzweil's singularity. The buildup towards the singularity is compared with Judeo-Christian end-of-time scenarios. Beam calls it "a Buck Rogers vision of the hypothetical Christian Rapture".[45] John Gray says "the Singularity echoes apocalyptic myths in which history is about to be interrupted by a world-transforming event".[46]
The radical nature of Kurzweil's predictions is often discussed. Anthony Doerr says that before you "dismiss it as techno-zeal" consider that "every day the line between what is human and what is not quite human blurs a bit more". He lists technology of the day, in 2006, like computers that land supersonic airplanes or in vitro fertility treatments and asks whether brain implants that access the internet or robots in our blood really are that unbelievable.[47]
In regard to reverse engineering the brain, neuroscientist David J. Linden writes that "Kurzweil is conflating biological data collection with biological insight". He feels that data collection might be growing exponentially, but insight is increasing only linearly. For example, the speed and cost of sequencing genomes is also improving exponentially, but our understanding of genetics is growing very slowly. As for nanobots Linden believes the spaces available in the brain for navigation are simply too small. He acknowledges that someday we will fully understand the brain, just not on Kurzweil's timetable.[48]
Reviews[edit]
Paul Davies wrote in Nature that The Singularity is Near is a "breathless romp across the outer reaches of technological possibility" while warning that the "exhilarating speculation is great fun to read, but needs to be taken with a huge dose of salt."[42]
Anthony Doerr in The Boston Globe wrote "Kurzweil's book is surprisingly elaborate, smart, and persuasive. He writes clean methodical sentences, includes humorous dialogues with characters in the future and past, and uses graphs that are almost always accessible."[47] while his colleague Alex Beam points out that "Singularitarians have been greeted with hooting skepticism".[45] Janet Maslin in The New York Times wrote "The Singularity is Near is startling in scope and bravado", but says "much of his thinking tends to be pie in the sky". She observes that he's more focused on optimistic outcomes rather than the risks.[49]
Film adaptations[edit]
In 2006, Barry Ptolemy and his production company Ptolemaic Productions licensed the rights to The Singularity Is Near from Kurzweil. Inspired by the book, Ptolemy directed and produced the film Transcendent Man, which went on to bring more attention to the book.
Kurzweil also directed his own film adaptation, produced in partnership with Terasem; The Singularity is Near mixes documentary interviews with a science-fiction story involving his robotic avatar Ramona's transformation into an artificial general intelligence. Screened at the World Film Festival, the Woodstock Film Festival, the Warsaw International FilmFest, the San Antonio Film Festival in 2010 and the San Francisco Indie Film Festival in 2011, the movie was released generally on July 20, 2012.[50] It is available on DVD or digital download.[51][52]