European foreign policy of the Chamberlain ministry
The European foreign policy of the Chamberlain ministry from 1937 to 1940 was based on British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's commitment to "peace for our time" by pursuing a policy of appeasement and containment towards Nazi Germany and by increasing the strength of Britain's armed forces until, in September 1939, he delivered an ultimatum over the invasion of Poland, which was followed by a declaration of war against Germany.
Commitment to peace[edit]
As many others in Europe who had witnessed the horrors of the First World War and its aftermath, Chamberlain was committed to peace. The theory was that dictatorships arose if peoples had grievances and that by removing the source of those grievances, a dictatorship would become less aggressive. A popular belief was that the Treaty of Versailles was the underlying cause of Adolf Hitler's grievances. Chamberlain, as even his political detractors admitted, was an honourable man, who had been raised in the old school of European politics. His attempts to deal with Nazi Germany through diplomatic channels and to quell any sign of dissent from within, particularly from Churchill, were called by Chamberlain "the general policy of appeasement" on 30 June 1934.
1938: Early negotiations[edit]
The very noisy agitation of the Reichskolonialbund (Reich Colonial League) for the return of the former German colonies in Africa had made Chamberlain conclude by 1937 that the colonial issue was Germany's most important grievance. In January 1938, Chamberlain informed the Foreign Policy Committee that he intended to place the colonial issue "in the forefront" but noted that "the examination of the colonial question could only be undertaken as a part and parcel of a general settlement".[29] Chamberlain proposed an international regime of all leading European powers to administer a vast area of central Africa.[30] In return for participating in the proposed African administration, Hitler was to promise never to use violence to change the frontiers of Germany. The plan foundered on 3 March 1938, when Nevile Henderson, the British Ambassador in Berlin, presented Chamberlain's proposal to Hitler, who rejected the idea on the grounds that Germany should not have to negotiate for any bit of Africa, and he announced that he was prepared to wait ten years or longer for a unilateral return of the former colonies.[31] Hitler's rejection of Chamberlain's African scheme, which had been intended as the first step towards achieving a "general settlement" of Germany's grievances, largely threw Chamberlain's scheme for orderly talks off the rails.[32]
In March 1938, British-Italian talks on the withdrawal of the Italian forces from Spain were resumed.[33] On 16 April 1938, the Easter Agreement was signed in Rome, which appeared to settle all the outstanding disputes between both countries.[33] However, the prospect of the Easter Agreement coming into force was hampered when Mussolini, despite his promises, sent more troops to Spain.[33]
As part of its policy to try to win Italy away from Germany by reducing that country's involvement in Spain, Chamberlain's cabinet slowly dismantled the powers of the Non-Intervention Committee for the Spanish Civil War in 1937, and it was silent in relation to the gradual ostracism of to the leftist Juan Negrín government from that organisation.[34]
1938: Anschluss and Austria[edit]
The first European crisis of Chamberlain's premiership was over the German annexation of Austria. Austrian Nazis had already assassinated Austrian Chancellor Engelbert Dollfuss in 1934, and they were now pressuring Chancellor Kurt Schuschnigg.
Informed of Germany's objectives, Chamberlain's government decided it was unable to stop events and so acquiesced to what later became known as the Anschluss in March 1938 in which Austria became part of Germany.
1938: Appeasement and alternatives[edit]
The repeated failures of Britain's government to deal with rising Nazi power have historically often been laid on the doorstep of Chamberlain, since he presided over the final collapse of peace. However, dealing with Germany under Chamberlain was difficult. Germany had begun general conscription and had already amassed an air army. Chamberlain, caught between the bleak finances of the Depression era; his own abhorrence of war; and Hitler, who would not be denied a war, gave ground and entered history as a political scapegoat for what was the more general failure of political will and vision that had begun with the Treaty of Versailles in 1919.
The policy of keeping the peace had broad support. If the House of Commons had wanted a more aggressive prime minister, Churchill would have been the obvious choice. Even after the outbreak of war, it was not clear that the invasion of Poland need lead to a general conflict. What convicted Chamberlain in the eyes of many commentators and historians was not the policy itself but his manner of carrying it out and the failure to hedge his bets. Many of his contemporaries viewed him as stubborn and unwilling to accept criticism, an opinion that was backed up by his brushing aside the views of cabinet ministers who disagreed with him on foreign policy. If accurate, that assessment of his personality would explain why Chamberlain strove to remain on friendly terms with Germany long after many of his colleagues became convinced that Hitler could not be restrained.
Chamberlain believed passionately in peace for many reasons, most of which are discussed in the article appeasement, and thought it his duty as Britain's leader to maintain stability in Europe. Like many people in Britain and elsewhere, he thought that the best way to deal with Germany's belligerence was to treat it with kindness and to meet its demands. He also believed that the leaders of people are essentially rational beings and so Hitler must be rational as well. Most historians believe that Chamberlain, in holding to these views, pursued the policy of appeasement far longer than was justifiable, but it is not exactly clear whether any course could have averted war and whether the outcome would have been any better had armed hostilities begun earlier. France was also unwilling to commit its forces, and there were no other effective allies. Italy had joined the Pact of Steel, the Soviet Union had signed a non-aggression pact and the United States was still officially neutral. Chamberlain's foreign policies have been the subject of intense debate for more than 70 years among academics, politicians, and diplomats. Historians' assessments have ranged from condemnation for allowing Germany to grow too strong to the judgment that Germany was so strong that it might well win a war and that postponing that showdown was in the best interests of Britain.
The historian Andrew Roberts argued in 2019, "Indeed, it is the generally accepted view in Britain today that they were right at least to have tried".[69]
Autumn 1938: Attitudes towards Italy, Germany and Japan[edit]
On 2 November 1938, Chamberlain made another effort to win Italy away from Germany by announcing that his government would soon bring the Easter Agreement into effect after the news that Italy was pulling 10,000 troops out of Spain.[70] On 16 November, the Easter Agreement was declared to be in effect, and Britain recognised King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy as Emperor of Ethiopia.[70] Shortly afterward, on 30 November 1938, the Italians laid claim to parts of France, causing an acute French-Italian crisis, which nearly scuttled Chamberlain's planned trip to Rome[70]
During the winter of 1938–1939, Chamberlain's attitude to Germany noticeably hardened, partly because of the violent anti-British propaganda campaign that Hitler had launched in November 1938 and partly because of information supplied by anti-Nazis such as Carl Friedrich Goerdeler that German armament priorities were being shifted towards preparing for a war with Britain.[71] In particular, Chamberlain was concerned with information that Hitler regarded the Munich Agreement as a personal defeat, together with hints from Berlin in December 1938 that Germans planned to renounce the Anglo-German Naval Agreement, which was regarded in London as the "barometer" of Anglo-German relations, in the near future.[72] Also, reports relayed by the German opposition of Hitler's secret speech of 10 November 1938 to a group of German journalists; he complained that his peace propaganda of the previous five years had been too successful with the German people, and a new phrase of propaganda intended to promote hatred of other countries, particularly Britain.[73] In response to the worsening relations with Berlin, Chamberlain decided that it was now too dangerous for Britain to accept the Balkans as an exclusive German economic zone, and he ordered a British "economic offensive" in the winter of 1938–1939 to subsidise the purchase of Balkan products that would otherwise be bought by the Germans.[74] One comic aspect was that after considerable debate within Whitehall, Chamberlain ruled that for the sake of keeping Greece out of the German economic sphere of influence British smokers would have to endure Greek tobacco, which was regarded as inferior in Britain.[75] Another major economic event in November 1938 was the signing of the Anglo-American trade agreement.[76] Its signing was the start of increasing economic co-operation between Washington and London, which was intended to lead eventually to political co-operation.[76]
In late 1938, Britain made a series of loans to China, which the British historian Victor Rothwell noted that his country "could ill afford" but were intended to keep China fighting against Japan.[77] By then, it was accepted in Whitehall that it was better to keep China fighting, even at the risk of antagonising Japan since as long as it was embroiled in the war with China, Japan would be less likely to attack Britain's Asian colonies, which would free up British forces in Europe.[77] The British Foreign Office was strongly pro-Chinese and, as Rothwell noted, Sir Robert Craigie, the British Ambassador in Tokyo was "slapped down when in late 1938 he advocated what, in effect, would have been a Far Eastern equivalent of Munich".[78] The pro-Chinese sympathies of the Foreign Office were reflected in the greater respect given to the Sinophile ambassador to China, Archibald Clark Kerr, despite the straitlaced Japanophile Craigie being a far more traditional British diplomat than the flamboyant, hard-drinking and very active bisexual Clark Kerr.[79] Britain could not risk a war with Japan, which would divert British military force to the Far East and thus encourage Germany and Italy to engage in aggressive actions. At the same time, the British government would not accept a Japanese conquest of China and so financially supported China.[80] In late 1937, Chiang Kai-shek lost Shanghai, the business capital of China from which came 85% of Chinese tax revenues, to the Japanese.[81] After the fall of Shanghai, Chiang was hard-pressed to find the money needed to continue the war with Japan. The Chamberlain government had its version of the domino theory in which if Japan conquered China, Japan would certainly extend its ambitions to Britain's Asian colonies and to the dominions of Australia and New Zealand.[80] Chamberlain and the rest of his cabinet would never accept a Japanese conquest of Australia, New Zealand, India and the rest of the British colonies in the Far East, and they were resolved to fight to uphold Britain's position in the Asia-Pacific region, if necessary, and the Japanese made unacceptable demands.[78] When Japan confiscated British-owned railways in China or seized British-owned ships in Chinese waters without compensation, the British government presented only notes of protest, as war with Japan was regarded only as a worst-case scenario.[82] Meanwhile, money was still committed to the Singapore naval base and to fortifying Hong Kong to deter Japan from further aggression.[80] The Chamberlain government would have liked to have enlisted the United States to present an Anglo-American front to stop the Japanese war against China, but the unwillingness of the Roosevelt administration to take such a step precluded a more active British policy in the Far East.[83]
A trivial incident that reflected the deteriorating state of Anglo-German relations occurred in December 1938. Chamberlain addressed the correspondents of the German News Agency at a formal dinner in London and warned of the "futility of ambition, if ambition leads to the desire for domination".[84] The implied rebuke to Hitler led to Herbert von Dirksen, the German ambassador to the Court of St. James, walking out of the dinner in protest. Moreover, reports from the Chiefs of Staff (COS) in late 1938 that within a year, British air defences would be strong enough because of the increased fighter production and the completion of the Home Link radar chain to resist and repel any German attempt at a "knock-out blow" from the air, the fear of which being a major factor in British policy in 1938.[85] The assurances provided by the COS that Britain could repel and survive a German attempt at "knock out blow" in 1939 played a significant role in the change in emphasis in Chamberlain's foreign policy that year. In late 1938, Chancellor of the Exchequer John Simon reported to the Cabinet that the increased military spending that Chamberlain agreed to in 1937 and 1938 was leading to inflation, high interest rates, a balance of payments crisis and the danger that British financial reserves (the so-called "fourth arm of the defense") would be used up. In that situation, "we should have lost the means of carrying on a long struggle altogether".[86] At same time, Simon expressed concern to Chamberlain about the international repercussions if "defense plans should be openly seen to have been frustrated by the financial and economic situation".[86]
1939: Containment policy[edit]
Confirming Chamberlain on his "containment" policy of Germany in 1939 was information supplied by Carl Friedrich Goerdeler to the effect that the German economy was on the verge of collapsing by the weight of heavy military spending.[114] In addition, Goerdeler reported that Hitler could be deterred from war by a forceful British diplomatic stand in favour of Poland and that his regime would then collapse on its own accord by the disintegration of the German economy.[115] Goerdeler's arguments had much influence on Chamberlain when he dealt with Hitler in 1939.[116] In the so-called "X documents" (Goerdeler's codename was "X") detailing the German economic situation, Goerdeler painted a dire picture.[117] In a typical report, Goerdeler told his contact with British intelligence, the industrialist A.P. Young: "Economic and financial situation gravely critical. Inner situation desperate. Economic conditions getting worse".[118] In February 1939, Goerdeler's assessment of the German economic situation was contradicted by Frank Ashton-Gwatkin, the Foreign Office's economic expert, who reported to the Cabinet after he visited Germany that through Germany suffered from serious economic problems, the situation was nowhere near as desperate as portrayed by Goerdeler in the "X documents".[119] As the British historian Richard Overy observed, Chamberlain much preferred Goerdeler's assessment of German economic problems over Ashton-Gwatkin's, whose views were ignored by Chamberlain in 1939.[120] The accuracy of Goerdeler's information has been the subject of much historical debate, with some historians arguing that Goerdeler exaggerated the extent of German economic problems, but other historians have maintained that Goerdeler's information was correct and that Soviet economic support, together with plundering occupied countries, saved the German economy from collapse in 1939 to 1941.
The "containment" strategy comprised building a "peace front" of alliances linking Western and Eastern European states to serve as a "tripwire" to deter German aggression.[121] The anchors of the proposed "peace front" meant to contain the Germany were supposed to be Britain, France, Poland, the Soviet Union and Turkey. The essence of the containment strategy was a policy of deterrence, with firm warnings against aggression and an attempt to form interlocking network of alliances to block German aggression in any direction.[122] Beginning with a proposal by Chamberlain in March 1939 and following advice from the Chiefs of Staff for talks between Britain, the Soviet Union, Poland and France to offer support for any state that felt its independence threatened by Hitler, the French suggested the proposal successfully to be stiffened to include action.[123] Poland was invited into the proposed Four-Power Pact as the state best placed to aid Romania and the East European state from which Romania was most likely to accept aid.[124] Poland was at first conceived as merely one part of the anti-German East European bloc, but rumours presented by the newspaperman Ian Colvin, most likely planted by anti-Nazi elements within the Abwehr, of an impending German attack against Poland in late March led to the specific unilateral guarantee of Poland.[125] Pointedly, the guarantee was of Polish independence, not integrity, which left open the possibility of territorial revision in Germany's favour.[126] Though it was not practical for Britain to offer any aid to Poland in the event of a German attack, the principal motives were deterring a German attack against Poland and, if such an attack came, tying down German troops.[127] Though Chamberlain envisioned the return of Danzig as the part of the ultimate solution to the German-Polish dispute, he also made very clear that the survival of a Polish state, within truncated borders, was seen as part of the solution.[128] A further factor encouraging Britain to risk a war over Poland was statements from the various dominion governments in the summer of 1939 with the exception of the Irish Free State that unlike in 1938, they would go to war with Britain.[129] Another factor was the state of the British economy and the financial problems of paying the colossal costs of rearmament. By May 1939, Simon was warning the Cabinet that under the economic strain of rearmament, "We shall find ourselves in a position, when we should be unable to wage any war other than a brief one".[130] Given the economic strains caused by rearmament, Chamberlain greatly wanted an end to the endless crises gripping Europe before the arms race bankrupted Britain.
Summer 1939: Tientsin incident[edit]
A major crisis that preoccupied Chamberlain in the summer of 1939 was the Tientsin Incident. The British refusal to hand over to the Japanese four Chinese nationalists accused of murdering a Japanese collaborator caused the British concession in Tianjin, China, to be blockaded by the Imperial Japanese Army on 14 June 1939.[131] In particular, reports in the British press of the maltreatment by the Japanese of British subjects wishing to leave or to enter the concession, especially the public stripsearching of British women at bayonet-point by Japanese soldiers, enraged British public opinion and led to much pressure on the government to take action against Japan.[132] Chamberlain considered the crisis to be so important that he ordered the Royal Navy to give greater attention to a possible war with Japan than to a war with Germany.[133] On 26 June 1939, the Royal Navy reported that the only way of ending the blockade was to send the main British battle fleet to the Far East and that the current crisis in Europe of Germany threatening Poland made that militarily inadvisable.[133] In addition, Chamberlain faced strong pressure from the French not to weaken British naval strength in the Mediterranean because of the danger that Mussolini might honour the Pact of Steel if war broke out in Europe.[133] After an unsuccessful effort to obtain a promise of American support (the United States informed Britain that it would not risk a war with Japan purely for British interests), Chamberlain ordered Sir Robert Craigie, the British ambassador, to find any way of ending the crisis without too much loss of British prestige.[134]
The crisis ended with the British handing over the Chinese suspects, who were executed by the Japanese in August 1939, but Craigie managed to persuade the Japanese to drop their more extreme demands, such as the British turning over all Chinese silver in British banks to the Japanese.[135]